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Al Kluis’s rule of thumb, as reported at Commodity Classic in March 2023, was to sell corn while planting and avoid selling from August through October. The evidence he cited described 2022 price movements; it does not establish a dependable pattern for every year or provide a current market forecast.
What was Kluis’s seasonal selling rule?
In a March 21, 2023, Successful Farming report by Cassidy Walter, Kluis, managing director of Kluis Commodity Advisors, advised farmers to pay attention to seasonal selling patterns. His rule of thumb was to sell corn during planting and avoid sales from August through October. He put the warning plainly: “If you remember one thing from the meeting today, never sell in August.”
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That is a reported guideline, not a guarantee that prices will rise during planting or fall in late summer and autumn. It should not be treated as individualized investment advice.
What did the 2022 price pattern show?
Walter’s 2023 article described these 2022 price movements:
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| Crop | Reported high | Reported low |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | May | July |
| Soybeans | June | October |
The article also said cash and new-crop sales made in May through June 2022 were near that year’s highs. These are observations from the article’s account of one year, not a separate statistical study. They do not demonstrate that the same calendar pattern will recur.
What three-step marketing plan did he describe?
Kluis’s event framework, as reported by Walter, combined crop insurance with hedging and options:
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- Choose revenue protection. Work with a crop-insurance agent to select a revenue-protection plan.
- Consider hedging insured bushels. On a spring or summer weather-scare rally, his proposed range was to hedge 50% to 80% of insured bushels.
- Consider puts for uncovered new-crop bushels. Protect bushels not covered by hedges with put options only if the puts allow you to lock in a profit.
This is Kluis’s reported approach, not a universal prescription. A hedge or option has its own costs and risks, and the article does not provide comparative performance data for cash sales, hedges, or puts. Producers need to assess how any choice fits their farm’s risk exposure and cash-flow needs.
What market factors was Kluis watching in 2023?
His outlook at the time was framed around conditions he was monitoring for 2023, including:
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- The final size of the South American crop and global grain production
- U.S. spring and summer weather, including the transition from La Niña to El Niño
- The possibility of a global recession
Those were factors in a 2023 outlook, not a present-day forecast. The cited article does not test whether the seasonal tendencies hold in later crop years.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How should a farmer use seasonal advice?
Seasonality can be one input in a marketing plan, but a calendar rule alone cannot account for a farm’s insurance coverage, production uncertainty, price objectives, or ability to withstand losses. Kluis emphasized the business-risk side of the decision: “You’re running a farm business, so you have to make sure you manage the risk,” followed by, “Learn how to market, create a plan, and execute that plan.” Both statements were quoted in Walter’s 2023 report.
Before acting on a seasonal guideline, a producer can review the crop-insurance plan with an agent and assess proposed sales or hedges against insured bushels and the farm’s broader risk-management plan. The historical examples are context for that planning—not evidence that waiting for a particular month will produce a better price.
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