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Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →On January 12, 2026, USDA raised its 2025/26 U.S. corn production estimate to 17.0 billion bushels and projected corn ending stocks at 2.2 billion bushels. It also raised projected U.S. wheat ending stocks to 926 million bushels. A same-day market roundup said corn, soybean and wheat ending-stock estimates were above trade expectations, but it did not publish the consensus figures, so the size of those surprises cannot be quantified from the available figures.
What USDA changed in its January 12 estimates
The reporting day combined four releases: USDA’s January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the 2025 Crop Production Summary, quarterly Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings. They cover different measures. Crop production estimates describe annual output; Grain Stocks reports inventory at a point in time; WASDE ending stocks are projections for the marketing year.
Corn production and projected ending stocks
USDA raised its 2025/26 U.S. corn production estimate by 269 million bushels to 17.0 billion bushels. The revision reflected both a 0.5-bushel-per-acre increase in yield, to 186.5 bushels per acre, and 1.3 million more harvested acres. USDA described the crop as a record, 1.7 billion bushels above the previous high set in 2023. USDA’s January 12 WASDE gives the balance-sheet figures and explanations.
Projected corn ending stocks rose by 198 million bushels from the December estimate, to 2.2 billion bushels. USDA also raised total corn use by 90 million bushels to 16.4 billion. Feed and residual use increased by 100 million bushels, while food, seed and industrial use edged lower. The larger increase in supply than in use explains why projected ending stocks rose despite higher expected use.
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Wheat projected ending stocks
USDA raised projected 2025/26 U.S. wheat ending stocks by 25 million bushels, to 926 million. Beginning stocks increased by 4 million bushels following revisions in the contemporaneous Grain Stocks report. USDA also lowered projected feed and residual use by 20 million bushels, to 100 million, after first-quarter disappearance was smaller than expected. Together, the balance-sheet changes lifted the ending-stock projection.
Soybeans and global estimates
A roundup published by Agriculture.com reported that U.S. corn, soybean and wheat ending-stock estimates all increased month over month and were above trade expectations. It also said soybean yield and production were mostly unchanged and slightly above trade expectations, while global ending stocks for corn, soybeans and wheat rose month over month. The roundup characterized Brazil and Argentina crop-production estimates as below trade expectations and said their corn and soybean estimates were unchanged. These are summary-level comparisons; the figures here do not establish numerical revisions or surprise margins for those claims. The Agriculture.com report attributes the trade benchmark to Reuters but does not provide the underlying survey estimates.
How to interpret “above trade expectations”
Trade expectations are market-survey estimates, not USDA forecasts. The January roundup supports a directional conclusion: the ending-stock estimates were reported as above expectations. It does not provide the Reuters consensus values for corn, soybeans or wheat, so it cannot establish how many bushels—or what percentage—each estimate exceeded the benchmark.
That distinction matters because “higher than last month” and “above expectations” are separate comparisons. A USDA estimate can rise from its previous monthly value and also exceed the market’s anticipated figure, but the size of either change requires the relevant numbers. Without the cited survey values, reporting a quantified surprise would go beyond the evidence.
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Production, inventory and ending stocks are not interchangeable
- Production and yield: Annual crop output estimates. USDA’s Crop Production Annual Summary includes planted area, harvested area, yield and production by crop. The USDA National Agricultural Library’s catalog entry describes the report’s data categories.
- Grain Stocks: Inventory measured at a specified point in time. The January 2026 release also informed revisions to balance-sheet inputs such as beginning stocks and evidence about disappearance.
- WASDE ending stocks: A projected marketing-year balance-sheet figure, derived from supply and use categories. It is not a direct count of all grain physically present on the report date.
- Disappearance: Grain that has left stocks through use or movement over a period; USDA’s reported disappearance figures help inform estimates of use.
The January releases therefore should not be read as if one number represented both a measured warehouse inventory and the amount expected to remain at the end of a marketing year.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why the January estimates may change
These are USDA’s January 12, 2026 estimates and projections, not a current forecast. WASDE balance sheets can be revised in later monthly reports, and crop estimates can be updated as additional data become available. The January figures are best understood as one dated vintage: useful for seeing what USDA estimated then, but not a substitute for checking a later report when making a current comparison.
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