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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsDonald Trump said in a January 2024 interview that he hoped an economic crash would happen within the next 12 months because he did not want to be compared with former President Herbert Hoover. The remark was a campaign-era statement about the year after the interview—not a current forecast, proof that a crash occurred, or evidence of motives beyond the reason Trump gave.
What Trump said
In an interview with Lou Dobbs broadcast on Lindell TV on January 8, 2024, Trump described the U.S. economy as fragile and said it was running on “the fumes” of what his administration had done. He then said: “And when there’s a crash, I hope it’s going to be during this next 12 months because I don’t want to be Herbert Hoover. The one president I just don’t want to be, Herbert Hoover.” The interview transcript records those words. Its title identifies the item as a January 13, 2024 Great America Show interview transcript; contemporary reporting gives January 8 as the broadcast date.
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What “the next 12 months” meant
The phrase referred to the 12 months after the January 8, 2024 interview. It should not be read as a forecast for the 12 months after today. Trump spoke during the 2024 presidential campaign, and the remark by itself does not establish that a crash happened during the period he described.
Why he invoked Herbert Hoover
Trump’s stated reason was that he did not want to be “Herbert Hoover.” Hoover is associated in American political memory with the Great Depression, making the comparison a reference to the political burden of presiding over an economic collapse. Trump’s words state his wish to avoid that comparison; they do not, by themselves, establish a private motive beyond what he said.
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Some coverage framed the remark as an effort to avoid blame for a crash if Trump won the election. That is an interpretation of its political implications, not a fact proved by the quote. The Congressional Record reproduces contemporary coverage of the interview; it is not the original interview recording.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the economy looked like in the contemporaneous coverage
Economic indicators cited in a January 2024 report offered context for Trump’s description, but they did not settle the question of future recession risk. The figures below are historical values as reported at the time, not current readings.
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| Measure | Contemporaneous figure |
|---|---|
| Jobs added | 216,000 in December 2023, according to The Hill’s January 2024 report. |
| Unemployment rate | 3.7%, according to The Hill’s January 2024 report. |
| Annual inflation | 3.1% in November 2023, down from a 9.1% peak in June 2022, according to The Hill’s January 2024 report. |
The same report quoted then-U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen describing the outlook this way: “What we’re seeing now I think we can describe as a soft landing, and my hope is that it will continue.” That was Yellen’s assessment at the time, not a guarantee. The indicators and outlook appeared alongside Trump’s warning about fragility, but neither the figures nor the remark proved what would happen next.
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