The Federal Reserve’s December 8–9, 2026, meeting is scheduled to bring a rate decision, a new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and a press conference with the Fed chair. The clearest way to read the outcome is to separate what officials decide from what they project and what the chair explains. As of October 8, the latest policy baseline is the September rate range of 3.75%–4.00%; an October meeting and incoming data can change that baseline before December.
What is scheduled for December
The Federal Reserve’s calendar lists a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 8–9, 2026, with a press conference. The calendar’s asterisk identifies it as a meeting associated with a new SEP. The December date is scheduled, but the calendar says it is subject to confirmation at the preceding meeting. Federal Reserve FOMC calendars and the Fed’s monetary-policy page list the meeting and related materials.
The calendar also lists the next FOMC meeting for October 27–28. Its decision is an important update before December: the September projections should not be treated as if they were refreshed immediately before the December meeting.
Start with the actual decision and statement
Look first at the target range the Committee announces, the vote, and the statement’s wording. These are the formal policy outcome and the Committee’s public description of the economy—not the same thing as individual projections or the chair’s remarks.
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As of October 8, the latest decision is from September 15–16. The FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the federal funds target range by a quarter percentage point, to 3.75%–4.00%. Its statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace, domestic spending as resilient, productivity growth as strong, capital investment as robust, and inflation as elevated. The statement’s exact assessment was: “Inflation remains elevated.” That is the Committee’s September 16 wording, not a confirmed description of conditions in December. Read the September 16 FOMC statement for the full text.
When the December statement is released, compare its language about economic activity, employment, inflation, uncertainty, and risks with September’s. A changed phrase can indicate a changed assessment, but it should be read alongside the actual rate decision and the rest of the statement.
Compare the new SEP with September’s projections
The December SEP will provide a fresh set of participants’ projections. Compare its medians and the spread of individual estimates with the September 16 SEP, paying particular attention to the federal funds rate, inflation, unemployment, and growth. The median summarizes a distribution; it does not mean every participant expects the same outcome.
| Measure | September 2026 median projection |
|---|---|
| Real GDP growth, 2026 | 2.3% |
| Unemployment, 2026 | 4.1% |
| PCE inflation, 2026 | 3.7% |
| Core PCE inflation, 2026 | 3.4% |
| Federal funds rate, year-end 2026 | 4.1% |
| Federal funds rate, 2027 | 4.1% |
| Federal funds rate, 2028 | 3.9% |
These figures are the Federal Reserve Board of Governors’ September 2026 SEP medians, not December outcomes. The SEP explains that projections reflect participants’ individual assessments of appropriate policy and likely economic outcomes; they are not a committee commitment or guaranteed forecast. A year-end rate median is therefore not a promise about the December decision. See the September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections.
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Listen to what the chair clarifies
The press conference is an opportunity to hear how the chair explains the formal decision and the projections. Focus on whether answers clarify how officials are weighing persistent inflation against risks to employment or growth, and whether guidance is conditional on incoming evidence. Keep those explanations distinct from the Committee’s vote: a chair’s response is not a separate policy decision, and conditional guidance does not establish certainty about the next move.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Account for October and the minutes’ range of views
The October 27–28 meeting and economic data released between the meetings may shift the policy baseline. The September SEP remains the latest published projection set as of October 8, but it cannot tell readers what the Committee will think after those intervening developments.
Minutes from the September meeting, released October 7, reported that most officials thought another increase would likely be appropriate by year-end, while some favored patience. This is a report of differing views discussed at that meeting—not a forecast of the December decision or evidence that the Committee has already chosen a course. The FOMC says minutes of regularly scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the policy decision; the monetary-policy page lists December meeting minutes for December 30.
Quick Recap
A practical reading order
- Check the confirmed meeting schedule. The December 8–9 dates are listed with a press conference and SEP, but are subject to confirmation at the preceding meeting.
- Read the formal statement and vote. Record the announced target range and identify meaningful wording changes from September.
- Compare the SEP distributions. Look at both medians and the range of participant projections for rates, inflation, unemployment, and growth.
- Use the press conference as explanation. Note how the chair describes trade-offs and uncertainty without treating conditional comments as a commitment.
- Put the result in sequence. Consider the October decision and intervening data, then use the December minutes when they are released to understand the discussion behind the decision.
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