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USDA’s September 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is already out: the agency released WASDE-675 on September 11. Its biggest U.S. crop change was a lower corn production forecast, while soybean production rose even as projected soybean ending stocks fell. These are government forecasts for the 2026/27 marketing year, not final harvest results or guaranteed signals for futures prices, farm income, or consumer costs. USDA’s WASDE page lists the report and historical data resources.
What is WASDE, and what does it tell you?
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) prepares and releases WASDE monthly. The report forecasts annual supply and use for U.S. and global wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds, and cotton; it also covers U.S. sugar, meat, poultry, eggs, and milk, as well as Mexico’s sugar supply and use. USDA’s outlook-process overview describes the interagency work behind the estimates. The forecasts draw on sources including National Agricultural Statistics Service surveys, market and trade data, foreign agricultural reporting, satellite imagery, weather analysis, models, and expert judgment. The Economic Research Service describes WASDE forecasts as marketplace benchmarks.
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Read a WASDE figure as a dated projection for a specified marketing year and report vintage. WASDE-675 compares USDA’s September estimates with its August estimates; it does not report final 2026/27 production or prices. Supply, use, and ending stocks form a connected balance sheet: changes to production, imports, domestic use, or exports can affect the amount projected to remain at year-end. Global supply, trade, and logistics also matter to U.S. markets.
What changed in September for corn, soybeans, and wheat?
The table shows USDA’s September 2026 U.S. estimates and the changes from August. All figures are forecasts, not observed outcomes. “Season-average price” means USDA’s projection of the average price received by producers during the marketing year; it is not a daily cash price or a futures-price target.
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| Crop and marketing year | Production and yield | Use, exports, and stocks | Season-average farm-price forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. corn, 2026/27 | Production: 15.8 billion bushels, down 213 million from August. Yield: 178.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2. Harvested area: 88.5 million acres, fractionally lower. | Total use: 16.2 billion bushels, down 150 million; the report attributes the reduction to feed and residual use. Exports: 3.3 billion, unchanged. Ending stocks: 1.6 billion, down 86 million. | $4.80 per bushel, up $0.30. |
| U.S. soybeans, 2026/27 | Production: 4.5 billion bushels, up 16 million. Yield: 52.8 bushels per acre, up 0.1. | Exports: 1.69 billion bushels, up 25 million. Ending stocks: 310 million, down 10 million. | $12.00 per bushel, up $0.60. |
| U.S. wheat, 2026/27 | Aggregate U.S. supply and use categories: unchanged from August. | White wheat exports: up 20 million bushels; hard red winter exports: down 15 million; hard red spring exports: down 5 million. | $6.40 per bushel, up $0.20. |
Source for the table: USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-675, September 11, 2026. The report states: “The season-average corn price received by producers is raised $0.30 per bushel to $4.80.”
Corn: lower production and lower projected stocks
The production reduction was the clearest U.S. corn change. USDA lowered both the yield estimate and harvested area slightly; the yield reduction accounts for the bulk of the production change. USDA also reduced total use, entirely through its feed-and-residual category, but that cut was smaller than the production reduction. As a result, projected ending stocks declined by 86 million bushels to 1.6 billion. This combination indicates a tighter projected U.S. corn balance sheet than in August, but it does not establish how prices will move.
Soybeans: production rose, but ending stocks fell
Soybean production increased by 16 million bushels, and USDA raised exports by 25 million. Ending stocks nevertheless fell by 10 million bushels to 310 million. The key reading is that USDA’s export increase more than offset the production increase in the stocks outlook, alongside other balance-sheet items. A larger crop estimate therefore does not, on its own, mean USDA expects a larger year-end cushion.
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Wheat: unchanged aggregate U.S. outlook, different export mix
USDA left aggregate U.S. wheat supply and use categories unchanged from August, while adjusting forecasts for individual wheat classes. White wheat exports rose, offset by reductions for hard red winter and hard red spring exports. The U.S. season-average price forecast rose to $6.40 per bushel. An unchanged aggregate balance sheet and a higher price projection can coexist: the report gives a forecast, not a guarantee that the price will be realized.
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Wheat: more supply and stocks, less trade
For 2026/27, USDA raised global wheat supplies by 3.5 million metric tons to 1,103.0 million and raised ending stocks by 3.0 million to 276.3 million. At the same time, it lowered projected trade by 0.9 million metric tons to 211.8 million. USDA cited weak August shipments and war-related logistics disruption in the Black Sea for lower Russian and Ukrainian exports. These are USDA’s stated explanations for the trade adjustment, not a general measure of all risks to wheat shipments. The agency’s September 2026 Wheat Outlook also analyzes the September 11 WASDE wheat projections.
Coarse grains: lower production and corn stocks
USDA lowered projected global coarse-grain production by 5.1 million metric tons to 1.588 billion. World corn ending stocks were projected at 272.1 million metric tons, down 2.6 million from August. The report cited lower production forecasts for India, Kenya, and Russia, partly offset by higher forecasts for the European Union and other countries.
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Rice: larger projected stocks
For U.S. 2026/27 rice, USDA raised beginning stocks by 4.6 million hundredweight to 58.4 million, while lowering production by 0.2 million to 158.2 million hundredweight. Ending stocks rose by 4.4 million to 40.4 million hundredweight, still 31% below the prior year. The all-rice season-average farm-price projection remained $14.90 per hundredweight. Globally, projected rice ending stocks rose by 4.4 million metric tons to 197.0 million; India accounted for the largest reported increase.
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Timing matters. WASDE-675 was released September 11, 2026. USDA NASS later published a September 30 Grain Stocks release, which reported old-crop stocks as of September 1. It found 2.10 billion bushels of old-crop corn stocks, up 35% year over year; old-crop soybean stocks were down 3%, and all-wheat stocks were down 14%. The later release also reported 2026 all-wheat production of 1.53 billion bushels, down 23% from revised 2025 production, and yield of 48.1 bushels per acre, down 10%. Those figures provide later context; they were not available when WASDE-675 was released and should not be treated as inputs to its September 11 outlook.
For a personal-finance reader, the practical distinction is between a market benchmark and a household outcome. WASDE does not forecast your grocery bill, determine a farmer’s profit, or guarantee a direction for commodity futures. Crop estimates may inform expectations about supply and trade, while actual prices and financial outcomes depend on later production, demand, logistics, contracts, costs, and other conditions. Treat the report as one dated input—not a stand-alone basis for a financial or trading decision.
Quick Recap
Questions to use when comparing a new WASDE with the prior one
- Did production or yield change, or did harvested area move?
- Did domestic use or exports change, and which category drove the revision?
- Did projected ending stocks rise or fall after accounting for all balance-sheet changes?
- Do global production, trade, or stocks point in the same direction as the U.S. outlook?
- Are USDA’s stated weather or logistics explanations specific to a crop or exporting region?
- Are you comparing the same marketing year and report vintage, rather than mixing a later release into an earlier forecast?
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