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The International Monetary Fund projected Pakistan’s external debt at US$126.731 billion for fiscal year 2025/26 in its May 2025 first-review report. That is the source of the rounded $126.7 billion headline—not a measured debt total for calendar 2025 or a current observation. Later IMF reports provide newer figures, so the forecast should be read in its original date and category context.
Where the $126.7 billion figure came from
The May 2025 IMF first-review report projected external debt of US$126.731 billion for Pakistan’s FY2025/26. The headline rounds that figure to one decimal place in billions. The figure is a forecast from that report vintage, not confirmation that debt actually reached that amount.
Pakistan’s fiscal year is the reporting period specified by the IMF table; FY2025/26 should not be read as calendar year 2025. The report’s [May 2025 first review] is the source for the projection.
What newer IMF figures say—and what they measure
Subsequent IMF publications mean the 2025 forecast is not the latest available picture. The IMF published a second-review report in December 2025 and a third-review staff report in April 2026. The later April report gives a reported FY2024/25 external debt stock and a separate projection for public external debt service in FY2025/26.
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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitches3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors| Figure | Period and measure | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| US$126.731 billion | FY2025/26 external debt projection in the IMF’s May 2025 first-review report | An earlier forecast, not an observed outcome. IMF, May 2025. |
| US$106.965 billion | FY2024/25 external debt stock reported in the IMF’s April 2026 report | A stock figure for the stated fiscal year, not the same period as the earlier FY2025/26 forecast. IMF, April 2026. |
| US$14.821 billion | FY2025/26 debt service on public external debt, projected in the IMF’s April 2026 report | Scheduled payments over a period, not the amount of external debt outstanding. IMF, April 2026. |
| 21.6% of GDP | FY2026 external general-government debt in the IMF’s May 2026 release | A government-debt ratio with GDP as its denominator, not a dollar estimate for all external debt. IMF, May 2026. |
The IMF’s December 2025 second-review report is another intervening report vintage. The later publications are useful updates, but their figures cannot be substituted for the May 2025 projection without matching the period and debt definition.
Why “external debt” is not one interchangeable number
Debt figures can refer to different borrowers and liabilities. “External debt” is not automatically equivalent to external public debt, external general-government debt, or total public debt. A debt stock describes amounts outstanding at a point or over a reporting period; debt service describes payments scheduled during a period. A percentage of GDP expresses a ratio, not a dollar stock.
The IMF’s April 2026 report distinguishes external debt stock, total public debt stock and public external debt service in its tables. Its May 2026 release’s 21.6% figure concerns external general-government debt relative to GDP. These measures answer different questions and should not be added together or treated as competing estimates of the same thing.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to interpret a headline about Pakistan’s debt
- Check the publication date: a forecast from May 2025 is not necessarily the IMF’s latest outlook.
- Check the period: FY2025/26 is not calendar 2025.
- Check the category: total external debt, external public debt and external general-government debt have different coverage.
- Check whether the figure is a stock, debt service, or a ratio to GDP.
The cited IMF material does not establish a full reconciliation between its aggregate external-debt series and Pakistan’s national statistics by public, private, guaranteed and other coverage. A comparison with national figures therefore requires attention to each source’s definitions rather than assuming the series are directly comparable. The IMF’s Pakistan country page provides a publication hub for its country material.
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