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The ADP National Employment Report estimates monthly changes in U.S. private-sector payroll employment. It can show where private payroll jobs appear to be growing or shrinking, but it does not measure the whole labor market, and it is not a forecast of the government’s monthly jobs report. Read it as one timely signal—not as a verdict on the economy or a substitute for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation.
What the ADP report measures
ADP’s National Employment Report (NER) is a monthly estimate of changes in private-sector payroll employment, built from anonymized and aggregated ADP payroll records. ADP says its dataset covers more than 26 million U.S. employees. That is the scale of ADP’s own payroll data, not a count of all workers or a representative census of the U.S. labor force. See the ADP National Employment Report and FAQs for the report’s current scope and release details.
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The measure concerns jobs—employee-employer relationships—not necessarily unique people. Someone with two jobs can be counted twice. It also excludes government employment and does not directly measure unemployment, labor-force participation, hours worked, underemployment, or household financial well-being.
How ADP builds the estimate
ADP derives the report from payroll-account data rather than a survey of households or employers. Its technical notes describe weekly snapshots and a matched sample of establishments present in consecutive weeks. ADP treats payroll accounts approximately as business establishments, weights estimates using employment distributions by industry, state, and establishment size from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), and then builds an employment index. The method is designed to provide a more timely view than QCEW’s near-universe count, which is published with a lag. ADP explains the methodology in its technical notes and calendar.
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Employment reference week and pay data
The monthly employment estimate refers to the week that includes the 12th day of the month, according to ADP’s FAQ. ADP’s related Pay Insights measure uses pay data across the month, so it has a different reference period. The report’s monthly change is therefore not simply a count of every job created and eliminated during the calendar month.
Seasonal adjustment and revisions
ADP publishes seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted figures. Its technical notes say it estimates seasonal components from weekly payroll history beginning in 2010 and accounts for 52- or 53-week years and shifts in week alignment. When comparing figures, use the same adjustment convention and matching periods.
ADP’s payroll data update continuously. Late client information can be incorporated into a previous month’s estimate, which means a figure may be revised after its initial release. A preliminary headline should not be treated as immutable.
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The reports are related in subject, but they are separate statistical products with different sources, coverage, and construction. ADP explicitly says: “The ADP National Employment Report is not intended to forecast the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report.” A difference between the two is not, by itself, evidence that one is more accurate.
| Comparison | ADP National Employment Report | BLS monthly payroll report |
|---|---|---|
| Primary source | Aggregated ADP payroll data | Current Employment Statistics employer survey, as described by ADP when discussing its prior forecast model |
| Coverage | U.S. private-sector employment | Nonfarm payroll employment, including private and government jobs |
| Reference and frequency | Weekly data and a monthly release; the employment reference week includes the 12th | Monthly frequency and a reference week including the 12th, according to ADP’s technical notes |
| Role | Independent, timely view of private employment; not intended as a BLS forecast | Official government employment statistics release |
| What a job count represents | Employee-employer relationships, not unique employed people | Employee-employer relationships, not unique employed people |
| Revisions and method | Late-arriving ADP client data can change a prior estimate | A separate statistical program and revision process; consult BLS documentation for its details |
What you can learn from a monthly headline
A positive or negative ADP estimate indicates the direction and estimated size of the change in private payroll employment for the report’s reference period. The industry, establishment-size, and regional breakdowns can show whether the reported change was broad or concentrated in particular parts of the private economy. Related Pay Insights data offer a separate view of pay, with their own definitions and reference period.
For example, ADP reported 90,000 private jobs added in September 2026. In that release, education and health services added 55,000 and leisure and hospitality added 22,000; financial activities fell by 16,000 and professional and business services by 11,000. These are ADP’s estimates for that month, not the BLS total nonfarm payroll change. ADP described hiring as having accelerated for the first time since May. Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson said, “It’s a strong report. After a three-month slowdown, job creation rebounded and pay growth remained solid.” That is Richardson’s assessment accompanying the release, not an independent forecast or a neutral measure of overall labor-market health. The September 2026 ADP release provides the figures and context.
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As a dated example of a different month, ADP reported 122,000 private jobs added in May 2026 and annual pay growth of 4.4 percent year over year. Those figures describe that May release, not current conditions or BLS results. See the May 2026 ADP release.
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What the report cannot establish on its own
- Whether the whole labor market is strong or weak. The report covers private payroll employment, not all work or every measure of labor-market conditions.
- Why employment changed. A monthly count does not establish the causes of hiring or job losses.
- What the next BLS estimate will be. ADP says its report is not intended to forecast the BLS release, and the two use different sources and methods.
- Whether conditions are improving for workers overall. Payroll job counts alone do not describe hours, unemployment, participation, job quality, or household finances.
- A final, unrevisable number. ADP can update prior estimates when additional client information arrives.
How to use ADP alongside other labor-market data
- Check the label and month. Confirm that the figure is ADP’s private-sector estimate and note the employment reference period.
- Check the series. Identify whether the figure is seasonally adjusted or not, and compare it only with figures using a compatible convention and period.
- Look below the headline. Review the industry, business-size, or regional detail to see where the change is concentrated.
- Compare it with other measures rather than treating it as a replacement. Read the BLS Employment Situation and relevant labor-market indicators for broader coverage and distinct evidence.
- Allow for revisions. If a prior ADP figure changes, account for the revised number when assessing the trend.
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