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Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Outbyte PC Repair FREEClear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Watch-industry improvement in 2026 may be concentrated among a small group of powerful brands rather than shared across the market. That is the outlook Jean-Philippe Bertschy, Head of Vontobel Equity Research, described as “selective normalisation” in an interview with Pascal Brandt published by MONOCHROME on 18 February 2026. It is a forecast, not a confirmed account of how the full year will unfold.
What Bertschy means by “selective normalisation”
In Bertschy’s view, some leading watchmakers could move back toward historical growth and margins, while many other companies continue to face pressure. He links the stronger prospects of the leaders to brand power, integrated retail and engaged customers. Across the wider industry, he sees volume pressure, less visibility and a more demanding promotional environment.
The distinction matters: a return to growth for a few major brands would not, by itself, show that the whole watch industry had recovered. Bertschy’s analysis points to a market where results may diverge sharply by brand, price segment and customer base.
Why concentration puts pressure on the rest of the market
Bertschy characterises the market as “fewer watches, but more expensive ones.” He estimates that around ten leading brands account for approximately 70% of watch volumes above CHF 500 and close to 80% of value. Those are estimates he gave in the MONOCHROME interview, not independently audited market-share figures.
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In his analysis, brands and suppliers reliant on volume—particularly in entry-level and mid-range segments—are more exposed when demand is uneven. Stronger brands may be better placed to defend pricing power. The issue, he argues, is not simply that there are many labels: it is the gap between a concentrated group of “majors” and a long tail of more fragile brands.
Where newcomers may fit
Bertschy sees room for differentiated newcomers as focused niche maisons with limited volumes and distribution. He does not describe them as likely future generalists able to compete across the market.
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How he expects demand to vary by region
The table summarises Bertschy’s regional forecasts as stated in the 18 February 2026 interview. They are qualitative expectations, not verified results or quantified growth rates.
| Region | Expected demand or growth profile | Demand mix and exposure |
|---|---|---|
| Mainland China | Stabilisation; no broad-based double-digit rebound expected | More support from high-end and engaged clients than from occasional buyers |
| United States | Moderate growth after stronger years | Greater variation between brands; demand more sensitive to financial wealth and equity markets |
| Europe | Broadly sluggish | Tourist centres and affluent local buyers may be more resilient |
| Middle East | Solid high-end profile | Supported, in Bertschy’s words, by a very high-end clientele and continued appetite for iconic pieces |
| India | Longer-term opportunity, not a short-term replacement for China | Small current base, with regulatory and distribution constraints |
What portfolio changes could mean for watch groups
Bertschy sees portfolio simplification as one possible response to the market’s concentration. In his view, groups could consider divestments, management buyouts or leaving some labels dormant, then direct capital toward stronger watch brands or branded jewellery. These are strategic possibilities he discussed, not announcements of planned disposals.
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He considers Zenith strategically valuable to LVMH and doubts the group would sell it. He likewise views Jaeger-LeCoultre as a strategic Richemont asset. More broadly, he thinks LVMH is likelier to strengthen its position, particularly at the high end, than to sell its watchmaking assets. His mention of Patek Philippe as a possible target reflects industry talk and his interpretation; it is not evidence of an offer, negotiation or planned acquisition.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why Rolex Certified Pre-Owned matters in his analysis
Bertschy estimates that Rolex Certified Pre-Owned generated around CHF 500 million in revenue in 2025. He describes that amount as modest at group level and expects further growth as the programme’s network expands and more eligible inventory becomes available, with growth eventually settling toward a more normal pace.
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He also sees the programme as a way for Rolex to capture part of the secondary market, contribute to price discovery and reinforce confidence in authenticity. The revenue figure and growth outlook are his estimates and analysis from the interview, not separately verified financial disclosures.
How to read the forecast
MONOCHROME’s interview with Pascal Brandt was published on 18 February 2026 and discusses Vontobel Equity Research’s Luxury Goods 2026 report. The interview reproduces Bertschy’s answers with permission. The estimates and outlook here should be read as his analysis, rather than independently verified industry measurements: the underlying Vontobel report and separate primary industry statistics were not reviewed for this article.
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This is an industry outlook, not an assessment of any individual watch or a recommendation to buy, sell or invest in a particular brand.
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