The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey-based measure of U.S. manufacturing activity. In September 2026, it was 54.5, while its New Orders Index rose 1.6 points to 55.3. Both readings were above 50, indicating expansion in the survey’s measures. The New Orders increase means more surveyed manufacturers reported improving orders than worsening orders, with unchanged responses counted halfway; it does not mean orders rose 1.6% or that every industry grew.
What the ISM Manufacturing PMI measures
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) surveys purchasing and supply executives about conditions at their organizations compared with the previous month. Its panel covers 18 manufacturing industries based on NAICS classifications and is stratified by each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product. The national report is based on this survey; regional report information is not used in its calculation. ISM’s Manufacturing Report describes the survey and its methodology.
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The PMI is a composite diffusion index, not a direct count of factory output or a dollar total of orders. It combines five component indexes with equal weight:
- New Orders
- Production
- Employment
- Supplier Deliveries
- Inventories
For measures that move in a positive direction, the diffusion index adds the percentage of respondents reporting improvement to half the percentage reporting no change. Survey responses are raw and are not altered. Four components—New Orders, Production, Employment, and Inventories—are seasonally adjusted; Supplier Deliveries is not. ISM’s calculation guidance calls for calculating unadjusted diffusion indexes, dividing the four adjusted series by their seasonal factors, and averaging the resulting five values. Seasonal adjustment factors are updated annually. ISM’s Report On Business methodology information explains the calculation.
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What a higher New Orders Index means
A rise means the balance of survey respondents reporting month-to-month improvement in orders strengthened. It is a directional signal about the breadth of reported demand—not a measure of how many dollars of orders were placed, how large those orders were, or how much output will result.
In September 2026, the New Orders Index was 55.3, up 1.6 points from 53.7 in August. In September, 23.4% of respondents reported higher orders, 61.1% reported no change, and 15.5% reported lower orders. The index was above 50, which ISM classifies as expansion. It marked the ninth consecutive month of expansion after four months of contraction. ISM reported growth in new orders in 10 industries and declines in four.
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ISM says a New Orders reading above 51.9 over time is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s manufacturing orders series in constant 2000 dollars. That is a historical relationship, not a one-month conversion or a guarantee that the government series will rise in step with the index.
How to interpret the 50 threshold
For the Manufacturing PMI and its component indexes, a reading above 50 generally signals expansion and a reading below 50 generally signals contraction. The distance from 50 indicates the strength of the diffusion signal; it is not the percentage change in output, orders, or employment.
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ISM also says a Manufacturing PMI reading above 47.5 over a period of time generally indicates expansion of the overall economy. This is a separate, longer-run relationship—not a replacement for the manufacturing-sector threshold of 50 and not a guarantee about the broader economy in any one month.
September 2026 readings in context
The September report showed mixed movement across the five components. The PMI eased slightly, while New Orders and several other components were above 50. Supplier Deliveries needs a different interpretation from a typical positive-direction measure: ISM described the September reading as slowing, even though the index was 59.0.
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| Measure | September 2026 reading | What the report indicates |
|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing PMI | 54.5, down 0.1 point from August’s 54.6 | Expansion |
| New Orders | 55.3, up 1.6 points from August’s 53.7 | Expansion |
| Production | 56.7 | Expansion |
| Employment | 52.7 | Expansion |
| Supplier Deliveries | 59.0 | Slowing deliveries, according to ISM |
| Inventories | 48.6 | Contraction |
All figures in the table are from ISM’s September 2026 report. The subindexes describe different parts of manufacturing conditions, so they should not be treated as interchangeable measures of demand or production.
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- It can show direction and breadth. A rising New Orders Index means a stronger balance of surveyed firms reported improvement than in the prior month.
- It cannot quantify order dollars. A 1.6-point index rise is not a 1.6% increase in orders or a stated dollar amount.
- It does not imply uniform growth. September’s overall New Orders reading was in expansion, but ISM reported declines in four industries.
- It is one economic indicator, not a complete account. ISM advises comparing its report with other economic sources when making decisions. The survey relies on information provided by supply executives; ISM does not make representations about individual companies’ data-collection procedures.
When the report is released
ISM says its Manufacturing Report is released on the first business day of each month at 10:00 a.m. The September 2026 figures above are the latest data in the cited report.
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