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Longevity risk is the possibility that you or your household will need retirement income for longer than your plan can reliably provide it. Because no life-expectancy figure predicts an individual’s lifespan, a sound plan considers a range of possible lifetimes and whether income and resources can support the household across them.
That makes longevity risk a question of duration and fit: how long resources may need to last, what expenses they must cover, and which income sources continue as household circumstances change. Population averages can provide context, but they are not deadlines for spending down savings or guarantees about how long retirement will last.
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What longevity risk means for a retirement plan
Retirement planning has a duration problem: you need to estimate how long your savings and other income may need to support you, but no one can know that duration in advance. If you live longer than your plan assumes, the same pool of resources may need to cover more years. That is longevity risk.
It is not the same as simply reaching an old age. The risk arises when the length of retirement and the income available to fund it do not match. A plan can be exposed even if its annual spending estimate is reasonable, because an unexpectedly long retirement extends the period over which that spending must be supported.
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Think of the plan as a comparison between a need that may continue for an uncertain number of years and resources expected to meet that need. The resources may include reliable income, savings, and other assets. The need is not just a total balance: it includes the timing and continuity of income, household spending, and what happens if one member of a couple dies before the other.
The question is therefore not just “How long will I live?” It is also whether essential and discretionary expenses can be met across several plausible lifetimes, and how reliable income, savings, and other assets work together as time passes. Longevity risk is about that uncertainty, not a prediction that a particular person will run out of money.
What life-expectancy figures can—and cannot—tell you
The Social Security Administration’s 2023 period life table reports average remaining life expectancy at age 65 of 18.12 years for males and 20.66 years for females in the Social Security area population. The figures use mortality rates observed in 2023 and appear in the 2026 Trustees Report table. They are population averages, not personal forecasts, guaranteed lifespans, or safe retirement-planning cutoffs. See the SSA’s 2023 period life table.
The SSA describes period life expectancy as “the average remaining number of years expected prior to death for a person at that exact age, born on January 1, using the mortality rates for 2023 over the course of their remaining life.” A period table applies one year’s mortality rates across a hypothetical remaining lifetime; it does not follow a real birth cohort as mortality rates change over future decades. In other words, it is a way to summarize mortality rates for a population at a given time, not a personalized forecast of the years ahead for someone reading the table.
Age matters when reading the number: remaining life expectancy at 65 is not the same measure as life expectancy at birth. And an average is not a maximum. Some people die earlier than the average and some live much longer. The SSA population table does not account for your health, family history, or other personal circumstances, so it cannot say how long you personally will live.
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The figures also should not be read as a retirement horizon that fits every household. The male and female averages are reported for the Social Security area population under the period-table method. They describe remaining years at an exact age using 2023 mortality rates; they do not show how many years a particular person will live, or how long a couple’s finances may need to support the surviving partner. For planning, the key use is context: the table reinforces that retirement duration is uncertain and that an average cannot stand in for a range of possibilities.
How a longer-than-assumed retirement can affect you
If a plan is built around a shorter retirement than the one a household experiences, resources may have to stretch further than expected. The specific effect depends on spending, income, assets, and household circumstances; the SSA life table does not quantify anyone’s risk of running out of money.
- Savings must support more years. Withdrawals taken over a longer period extend the demands on a portfolio or other assets. A plan that looks workable under one duration assumption should be checked against a longer one, rather than treating its original end date as certain.
- Reliable income needs to be assessed over time. Consider which income sources continue for one life, which cover two lives, and what happens when one member of a household dies. The amount available to a surviving spouse or partner can be relevant to how the household’s resources align with future needs.
- Purchasing power matters. An income amount that does not adjust with inflation may buy less as years pass. When considering a lifetime-income option, check whether payments adjust and how that feature affects purchasing power over time; do not assume that all income has the same treatment.
- Access to money can matter alongside lifetime income. A choice that provides income for life may have trade-offs in cost, survivor protection, or access to principal. The payout alone does not describe the full fit with a household’s savings and other resources.
- Household circumstances matter. A single person and a couple may need to evaluate duration differently because their income arrangements and survivor needs can differ. Planning should account for whether an income stream is tied to one life or joint lives and what continues after a death.
These are planning considerations, not predictions that a particular person will exhaust their assets. The available population figures alone cannot establish a suitable spending rate or identify a best strategy. They also do not quantify how many retirees outlive their assets. The practical step is to examine what the household’s own plan would do under different possible durations, rather than turning a population average into an individual conclusion.
Build a plan around a range of lifetimes
Rather than treating average life expectancy as a deadline, test whether the plan remains workable under more than one retirement-duration assumption. The point is to expose which assumptions matter most and where household resources may be more sensitive to a long retirement. This is a framework for review, not a formula for calculating an ideal spending rate.
- List the household’s expected resources. Set out reliable income, such as Social Security or a pension, alongside savings and other assets. Distinguish income that continues for one person from income that may change after a spouse or partner dies. This gives you a clearer picture of which resources are expected to continue over time and which may depend on household circumstances.
- Map spending needs. Separate recurring needs from flexible expenses, and consider how household needs might change over time. Avoid assuming that every year of retirement will have identical spending. The figures do not provide a spending benchmark, so the plan should use the household’s own needs rather than a number inferred from population life expectancy.
- Test multiple durations. Ask how the plan looks if retirement lasts materially longer than the central assumption. A population average can inform context, but it should not serve as the point at which the plan stops. The purpose is to see how dependent the plan is on a particular duration and whether income and resources remain aligned across alternatives.
- Review the consequences of each income choice. For an option intended to provide lifetime income, compare whether it covers one life or joint lives, inflation treatment, survivor benefits, cost and payout terms, and access to principal and liquidity. Consider these features together; the available guidance does not establish a best product or strategy.
- Revisit assumptions periodically. Update the plan when household circumstances, spending needs, income, or assets change. A plan is an estimate, not a one-time prediction of lifespan. Rechecking assumptions helps keep the duration question connected to the household’s current circumstances instead of relying indefinitely on an old estimate.
This framework does not select a product or strategy. It helps make the trade-offs visible and keeps the focus on whether the household can meet its needs across different possible retirement lengths. It can also clarify which questions need more attention: duration, survivor income, inflation treatment, cost, payout terms, or liquidity.
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Why required minimum distributions are not a longevity forecast
Required minimum distributions (RMDs) are tax rules for certain retirement accounts; they do not predict how long an account owner will live or establish a suitable retirement spending rate. Under IRS guidance, an RMD is generally calculated by dividing the account’s prior December 31 balance by the applicable distribution period in the IRS Uniform Lifetime Table. A different table applies in specified cases involving a spouse beneficiary.
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For IRAs, the first RMD is generally due for the year the owner reaches age 73. The first distribution may generally be delayed until April 1 of the following year. That delay can mean two distributions are due in that following year. Rules can depend on account and personal circumstances, so confirm current requirements for the specific account with the IRS RMD guidance. The timing rule is separate from any estimate of how many years retirement income may be needed.
The IRS also publishes actuarial tables for relevant valuation purposes. Its actuarial-tables page says the current valuation tables are based on mortality experience around 2010 and apply to relevant valuation dates from June 1, 2023; they do not apply to valuations under qualified retirement arrangements. Those tables serve a different purpose from the SSA population life table and should not be treated as a personal lifespan estimate. It is useful to keep these distinct: the SSA table describes population life expectancy under a period-table method, while IRS RMD and valuation tables address tax or valuation rules.
Questions to ask when reviewing a lifetime-income option
If you are considering an option intended to provide income for life, compare its terms with the rest of the household’s plan rather than focusing on a single payout figure. Relevant questions include:
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- Does the income last for one person’s life or for both spouses’ or partners’ lives?
- Does the payment adjust for inflation, and what does that mean for purchasing power over time?
- What survivor benefit, if any, continues after one person dies?
- What are the cost and payout terms?
- How much access to principal or other liquidity remains?
- How does the option fit alongside Social Security, pensions, savings, and expected household spending?
These questions help compare the features that matter to the household, without implying that one feature or product is best for everyone. For example, lifetime coverage, inflation treatment, survivor protection, cost, payout terms, and liquidity all affect how an option fits with other income and assets. The SSA and IRS sources cited here provide population mortality data and tax-rule information; they do not recommend a particular income product or retirement strategy.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Frequently asked questions
How long will my retirement savings need to last?
There is no single duration that can be inferred from an average life-expectancy figure. Consider multiple possible retirement lengths and compare them with household spending, reliable income, savings, and other assets. The SSA’s table offers population context, not an individual forecast or a safe cutoff for savings.
Does life expectancy tell me how long I will live?
No. The SSA’s 2023 period table reports population averages using mortality rates observed in 2023. It does not account for an individual’s health, family history, or other personal circumstances, and an average is neither a maximum nor a promise.
What does the SSA figure at age 65 mean?
For the Social Security area population, the 2023 period table reports average remaining life expectancy of 18.12 years for males and 20.66 years for females at age 65. These are remaining-years averages using 2023 mortality rates, not personal predictions or recommended planning horizons.
Do required minimum distributions tell me how long my money will last?
No. An RMD is generally calculated from an account’s prior December 31 balance and an applicable distribution period in IRS guidance. It is a tax rule, not a forecast of lifespan or a determination of an appropriate retirement spending rate.
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What should I compare in a lifetime-income option?
Consider whether payments cover one life or joint lives, how inflation is treated, what survivor benefits apply, the cost and payout terms, and how much access to principal or other liquidity remains. Also assess how it fits with Social Security, pensions, savings, and household spending needs. The sources do not establish a universally best option.
Frequently Asked Questions
How long will my retirement savings need to last?
There is no single duration that can be inferred from an average life-expectancy figure. Consider multiple possible retirement lengths and compare them with household spending, reliable income, savings, and other assets. The SSA’s table offers population context, not an individual forecast or a safe cutoff for savings.
Does life expectancy tell me how long I will live?
No. The SSA’s 2023 period table reports population averages using mortality rates observed in 2023. It does not account for an individual’s health, family history, or other personal circumstances, and an average is neither a maximum nor a promise.
What does the SSA figure at age 65 mean?
For the Social Security area population, the 2023 period table reports average remaining life expectancy of 18.12 years for males and 20.66 years for females at age 65. These are remaining-years averages using 2023 mortality rates, not personal predictions or recommended planning horizons.
Do required minimum distributions tell me how long my money will last?
No. An RMD is generally calculated from an account’s prior December 31 balance and an applicable distribution period in IRS guidance. It is a tax rule, not a forecast of lifespan or a determination of an appropriate retirement spending rate.
What should I compare in a lifetime-income option?
Consider whether payments cover one life or joint lives, how inflation is treated, what survivor benefits apply, the cost and payout terms, and how much access to principal or other liquidity remains. Also assess how it fits with Social Security, pensions, savings, and household spending needs. The sources do not establish a universally best option.
The Bottom Line
Longevity risk is the possibility that retirement income will need to last longer than a plan assumes. Use life-expectancy figures as population context—not personal predictions or deadlines—and review whether household income, savings, and other assets can support a range of possible lifetimes. RMD rules are tax requirements, not lifespan forecasts or spending recommendations.
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