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Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Alan Cole reportedly wagered $342,195.63—described as essentially his life savings—on a Kalshi market tied to federal spending in 2025. The headline version says he bet against Elon Musk or DOGE, but the contract described in coverage was about whether federal spending would fall below a late-2024 benchmark. Reports say Cole won a $470,300 payout, including more than $128,000 in profit.
What was Cole’s bet actually about?
Coverage describes Cole, a 37-year-old tax economist, as taking a position on federal spending—not directly on Musk’s personal success or failure. The reported condition compared spending in each 2025 quarter with spending in the fourth quarter of 2024. The articles summarize related positions somewhat differently, so the safest description is that Cole’s position depended on federal spending not dropping below that late-2024 level.
Inc says the market measured spending in annualized, seasonally adjusted nominal dollars. It reports that Cole assembled a position across sub-bets, rather than placing one simple wager on whether Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) would succeed. Inc’s February 26, 2026 account attributes details of the market structure to The Wall Street Journal.
How much did he stake, and what did he reportedly win?
| Figure | What it refers to |
|---|---|
| $342,195.63 | Reported stake; coverage says Cole described it as essentially his life savings. |
| $470,300 | Reported payout, not the amount of profit. |
| More than $128,000 | Reported profit after accounting for the stake. |
| Roughly 37% | Coverage’s approximate profit-return framing. |
These figures are reported by Inc and Futurism on February 26, 2026; Inc attributes key figures to The Wall Street Journal. They are not independently recalculated here. Payout, profit, stake, and percentage return are different measures: the $470,300 payout includes the original stake, while the reported profit is the amount above it.
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Inc reports that the lowest 2025 quarter still exceeded the target by $66 billion. It also describes Cole as holding more than 3% of a $12 million federal-spending market and says the position would lose only if spending declined by more than $50 billion. Those are reported descriptions of the position, not verified market-record calculations.
Why did he think federal spending would stay high?
Inc says Cole’s reasoning focused on large, ongoing outlays, including Social Security, Medicare, and interest. In his view, contract cuts and workforce reductions would not readily offset those expenses. That is the reasoning attributed to Cole in the coverage, not a complete independent analysis of the federal budget or the effects of DOGE’s actions.
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How was the market settled?
The reports identify Kalshi as the platform and characterize the market as matched between participants: a trader’s position was on the other side of another participant’s position, rather than a direct bet against the platform. Cole was quoted in Inc as saying, “The virtue of the matching market is that you can take the good side of a bad bet, someone else’s bad bet.” The quotation is relayed through the publication’s account of Wall Street Journal reporting, not a transcript independently reviewed here.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis government-data overview describes government receipts and expenditures within the agency’s data scope. That overview does not, by itself, establish the specific series, comparison calculation, $66 billion margin, or settlement amount reported for this Kalshi market. The payout and market arithmetic therefore remain figures attributed to the news coverage rather than independently confirmed here from an official contract record.
What the reported return leaves out
A roughly 37% profit return is not the same as a risk-free or repeatable result. Inc notes that the headline figure does not account for taxes on gains or winnings, or the opportunity cost of keeping funds out of other investments. The story is an account of one reported wager, not individualized tax or investment guidance; risking savings on a prediction market can result in losing the stake.
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