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The warning that weather could threaten the entire U.S. soybean carryout was a conditional market analysis published on July 27, 2021—not a current forecast and not proof that the projected stocks were ultimately eliminated. Ray Grabanski of Progressive Ag argued that continued heat and dryness could cut yields enough to put a small projected supply cushion at risk. Later USDA reports provide context, but they measure different things and do not establish that weather caused the eventual crop outcome.
What the July 2021 warning meant
In the July 27, 2021 article, Ray Grabanski, president of Progressive Ag, framed the risk around a dry, hot weather pattern shifting toward the middle of the Corn Belt. He pointed to deteriorating crop-condition and soil-moisture measures and argued that further yield losses could threaten the then-projected soybean stocks cushion.
The article cited projected ending stocks of 155 million bushels. That was a forecast cited by Grabanski at the time, not a final USDA result. His firm’s proprietary yield model informed his concern; it should not be confused with a USDA yield estimate. The key uncertainty, as he put it at the time, was: “The key: Will drought last another three to five weeks or even longer? Or, will the weather pattern change?” Successful Farming’s July 27, 2021 article presented the question as a scenario, not a settled prediction.
What the contemporaneous crop data showed
USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service’s Crop Progress report dated July 12, 2021 rated 58% of soybeans good or excellent across 18 states for the week ending July 11. That is an official snapshot of crop condition at that date. It is not a yield forecast or a measure of final production, and it does not by itself establish how much damage later weather would cause.
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How the later supply outlook differed
USDA’s September 2021 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected 2021/22 soybean ending stocks at 185 million bushels. This was a later forecast vintage than Grabanski’s July-cited 155 million bushels, not the final carryout. The two figures should therefore be read as projections made at different points in the season, rather than as interchangeable observations or proof that the July concern was either confirmed or disproved. See the USDA WASDE archive.
What the 2021 crop ultimately produced
USDA NASS’s January 12, 2022 Crop Production 2021 Summary reported 2021 soybean production of 4.44 billion bushels and an average yield of 51.4 bushels per acre, 0.4 bushel above 2020. The summary also reported record-high soybean yields in 21 states.
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Those annual results are useful hindsight, but they do not isolate weather’s effect or establish whether any price scenario in the July article came true. In particular, the article’s conditional references to prices such as $16 or $18 should not be treated as realized price outcomes without separate price evidence.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to interpret the article as market commentary
The original article disclosed that it was prepared by a Progressive Ag sales or trading employee or agent, was solicitation-like in nature, and was not a research report prepared by the firm’s Research Department. That context matters when weighing its market outlook: the piece conveyed an analyst’s conditional view and proprietary model, while the cited crop-condition and later production figures came from USDA statistical reports.
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- Productive - Chiba Green Soybean germinates in 10-14 days when soil temps are 65-75°F. Plant 1” deep and space 4-6” apart in an area with full sun. This variety will grow 1-3’ tall with a spread of 12-16”. Beans will mature in 65-75 days, plant in USDA zones 3-10.
- Good Eats - Harvest when pods are green and enjoy edamame or allow the pods to dry and shell to eat them boiled or steamed.
- Easy to Grow - Instructions included on each packet. Plus, we are available to answer all your questions. If these seeds don’t germinate, we will happily make it right for you.
- Safe and Sustainable - Our operation is fully solar powered, and Sow Right Seeds has taken the Safe Seed Pledge to sell only fresh Non-GMO heirloom seeds for you and your family.
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