The September 2026 WASDE is already out: USDA released it September 11, and the next scheduled report is October 9 at 12:00 p.m. ET. Its clearest changes were a smaller U.S. corn crop and tighter projected corn stocks, a slightly larger soybean crop alongside lower soybean stocks, and an unchanged aggregate U.S. wheat balance sheet. These are national marketing-year forecasts—not local bids or directions to sell.
What is in the September WASDE report?
USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is a monthly forecast of annual supply and use. The World Agricultural Outlook Board describes it as covering U.S. and world wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds and cotton, plus U.S. supply and use for several other commodities. USDA’s WASDE Report page explains the report’s scope and release schedule.
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WASDE-675, approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board and released September 11, 2026, includes commodity balance sheets, month-to-month changes and reliability tables. Interagency commodity committees prepare the estimates for Board review and approval. The figures below concern the 2026/27 marketing year unless otherwise stated; they are forecasts, not final outcomes. USDA’s report description outlines that process.
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The August-to-September comparison shows distinct stories across the three major U.S. crops. USDA’s season-average farm-price figures are national projections for the marketing year, not current futures quotes, local cash prices or a guaranteed price for an individual farm.
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| Crop | Production or yield | Use and exports | Ending stocks | Season-average farm-price projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | Production fell 213 million bushels to 15.800 billion; yield fell from 180.7 to 178.5 bushels per harvested acre. Harvested area was 88.5 million acres, down from 88.6 million. | Total use fell to 16.180 billion bushels, mainly because feed and residual use was cut by 150 million. Exports were unchanged at 3.275 billion. | Fell 86 million bushels to 1.567 billion. | Rose $0.30 to $4.80 per bushel. |
| Soybeans | Production rose 16 million bushels to 4.535 billion; yield increased from 52.7 to 52.8 bushels per acre, and harvested area rose by 0.1 million acres. | Exports rose 25 million bushels to 1.685 billion; crush remained 2.780 billion. | Fell 10 million bushels to 310 million. | Rose $0.60 to $12.00 per bushel. |
| Wheat | Production was unchanged at 1.531 billion bushels. | Total use was unchanged at 1.874 billion bushels. Class export forecasts shifted: white wheat rose 20 million bushels, Hard Red Winter fell 15 million, and Hard Red Spring fell 5 million. | Unchanged at 717 million bushels, 22% below 2025/26. | Rose $0.20 to $6.40 per bushel. |
These comparisons are from USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board, WASDE-675, September 11, 2026; the wheat year-over-year stocks comparison is also reported by USDA’s Economic Research Service.
Corn: a smaller crop, with lower use partly offsetting the supply decline
USDA cut its 2026/27 corn yield forecast and production estimate, while leaving exports steady. Lower projected total use—primarily the feed-and-residual reduction—partly offsets the smaller supply forecast in the balance sheet. Even so, projected ending stocks declined. The $4.80 season-average farm-price projection is USDA’s national estimate, not a local elevator bid or a prediction of a particular futures move.
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Soybeans: a bigger crop, but a slightly tighter carryout
The production estimate rose modestly, reflecting both a small increase in harvested area and a higher yield forecast. USDA also raised exports, while leaving crush unchanged; the combined balance sheet produced a 10-million-bushel reduction in projected ending stocks. The report’s global soybean outlook was also slightly tighter: global ending stocks were projected at 124.0 million metric tons, down 0.2 million from August, mainly because of lower U.S. stocks. That global figure is not interchangeable with U.S. ending stocks.
Wheat: no aggregate change, but class exports moved in opposite directions
At the national level, USDA left wheat production, total supply, total use and ending stocks unchanged from August. The class-level export adjustments therefore matter for understanding the detail beneath an unchanged total: white wheat was raised while Hard Red Winter and Hard Red Spring were reduced. USDA ERS’s September 15 Wheat Outlook added a time-specific export check: commitments reported through September 3 were 8.8 million metric tons (about 322 million bushels), down 31% year over year and equal to 42% of the full-year forecast. Those commitments reflect data available through September 3, not the full marketing year.
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How will the WASDE report affect corn prices?
The September report raised USDA’s season-average corn farm-price projection from $4.50 to $4.80 per bushel while cutting projected production and ending stocks. That combination describes a tighter forecast balance sheet than August, but it does not establish how futures or local cash prices will move. USDA also reduced projected corn use, and its export forecast remained unchanged; the report is a set of supply-and-use estimates, not a short-term market-price call.
For a farm’s actual price, compare local bids and futures-related pricing with basis, delivery terms, quality discounts or premiums, storage and carrying costs, and the date the grain can be delivered. Those factors can make an individual net price differ materially from a national season-average projection.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What changed after the September 11 WASDE?
USDA NASS published separate stocks and production information on September 30, later than WASDE-675. It should not be read as a revision contained in the September 11 WASDE.
- Corn stocks: 2.10 billion bushels of old-crop corn were on hand September 1, up 35% from a year earlier.
- Soybean stocks: September 1 stocks were down 3% year over year.
- Wheat stocks: All-wheat stocks totaled 1.85 billion bushels, down 14% year over year.
- Wheat production: NASS estimated 2026 all-wheat production at 1.53 billion bushels, down 23% from revised 2025. Harvested area was 31.9 million acres, down 15%, and yield was 48.1 bushels per acre, down 10%.
These are figures from NASS’s September 30 Grain Stocks and Small Grains Annual Summary. The September 1 stocks figures concern old-crop inventories at that date; they are not the same measure as WASDE’s projected 2026/27 ending stocks.
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What does WASDE mean for farmers?
Use the report as one national planning input, not a farm-level marketing instruction. Its season-average price projections do not account for an individual farm’s basis, contract terms, storage costs, cash needs or risk tolerance. Before choosing when or how much to sell, compare the forecast with the economics and obligations specific to your operation.
- Check current local bids and basis for the delivery location, grade and delivery window that apply to your crop.
- Calculate storage, shrink, interest and other carrying costs against the price and delivery alternatives available to you.
- Match possible sales or storage decisions to cash-flow needs, existing contracts and your tolerance for price risk.
- Revisit the balance sheet when USDA releases new estimates; a monthly forecast can change as more information becomes available.
The next scheduled WASDE release is October 9, 2026, at 12:00 p.m. ET, according to the USDA WASDE schedule.
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