As of October 8, 2026, the latest surfaced USDA outlook does not forecast smaller U.S. production for all three crops. USDA’s September outlook lowered its corn production expectation, raised its 2026/27 soybean forecast to 4.5 billion bushels, and the latest completed-crop data show 2026 wheat production down 23% from 2025. The October WASDE report was scheduled for October 9, so these figures do not include that report.
What the latest USDA figures say
The figures below describe different things: a forward-looking corn outlook revision, a soybean forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year, and a completed 2026 wheat crop reported by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). They should not be read as a same-date, apples-to-apples forecast for three crops.
| Crop | Geography and year | Metric | Latest figure and comparison | Report date and source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | United States; 2026/27 outlook | Production revision | U.S. corn production expectation reduced by 5.4 million metric tons for the month; the final production total is not stated in the cited summary. | September 18, 2026; USDA ERS, Corn and Other Feedgrains |
| Soybeans | United States; 2026/27 | Production forecast | 4.5 billion bushels, up 16 million bushels from the prior estimate. | September 18, 2026; USDA ERS, Oil Crops Outlook |
| Wheat | United States; 2026 crop | Production reported after harvest | 1.53 billion bushels, down 23% from revised 2025 production. | September 30, 2026; USDA NASS, Small Grains Annual Summary |
Is USDA predicting a smaller corn crop?
The September 18 USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) outlook lowered projected U.S. corn production by 5.4 million metric tons for the month. That reduction was the main reason projected global 2026/27 coarse-grains production fell by 5.1 million metric tons. Coarse grains are a broader category than U.S. corn; changes in foreign production partly offset the U.S. reduction. Global coarse-grain ending stocks also fell by 1.6 million metric tons for the month. Those global totals are not U.S. corn figures.
The cited ERS summary establishes a downward revision, not the final U.S. crop total. It also does not make production interchangeable with supply, domestic use, exports, or ending stocks.
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Did USDA cut the soybean forecast?
No. In its September 18 outlook, USDA raised its U.S. 2026/27 soybean production forecast by 16 million bushels to 4.5 billion bushels. NASS raised the projected national average yield from 52.7 to 52.8 bushels per acre. Planted acreage increased by 0.1 million acres to 86.9 million, and harvested acreage rose by 0.1 million to 85.9 million.
USDA also raised its soybean export forecast by 25 million bushels to 1.69 billion. The export revision is a use-and-trade estimate, not a measure of crop production.
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How much smaller was the 2026 wheat crop?
NASS reported 2026 all-wheat production of 1.53 billion bushels, 23% below the revised 2025 total. This is an annual summary of the crop produced, not the same kind of forward-looking projection as a WASDE forecast. NASS reported harvested area of 31.9 million acres, down 15%, and yield of 48.1 bushels per acre, down 10%.
| Wheat class | 2026 production | Change from 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Winter wheat | 1.02 billion bushels | Down 27% |
| Other spring wheat | 450 million bushels | Down 10% |
| Durum | 64.8 million bushels | Down 24% |
Why crop size and grain stocks can point in different directions
Crop production measures what is grown during a crop year. Stocks measure inventory on hand at a particular date, including grain from the prior crop. NASS reported September 1, 2026 stocks of 2.10 billion bushels of corn, 35% above a year earlier. Soybean stocks were 3% lower and all-wheat stocks 14% lower year over year.
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Higher old-crop corn stocks do not contradict a lower new-crop production expectation: the measures cover different dates and crop supplies. Stocks are not the same as the coming harvest or a forecast of total production.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Which USDA report is newest?
USDA publishes the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) monthly. The official schedule listed the October 2026 report for October 9 at 12:00 p.m. ET. As of October 8, that release had not yet occurred, so the September outlook and September 30 NASS annual wheat summary are the latest figures used here. The September WASDE was listed as released September 11, but its detailed tables are not reproduced in the cited summaries above.
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For readers following revisions, the distinction matters: WASDE summarizes supply and use estimates, while NASS Crop Production reports acreage, area harvested, yield, and production. A forecast revision is not a final harvest result, and a completed-crop estimate should not be presented as though it were a new-season forecast. See USDA’s WASDE schedule and reports and NASS’s 2026 Small Grains Annual Summary.
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