The Tool Desk
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What USDA changed for corn
The December report raised the projected U.S. corn export forecast for 2025/26 by 125 million bushels, to 3.2 billion bushels. USDA tied the increase to shipments already made. Because corn supply was not revised, and total projected use rose, the balance left less corn at the end of the marketing year. Ending stocks were cut by the same 125 million bushels, to 2.0 billion bushels.
Export pace
USDA said export inspection data showed robust foreign demand during November. From that data, the agency implied that September through November corn shipments would likely exceed 800 million bushels. That would surpass the prior high for the same period, set in 2007. Treat this as the report’s projection at publication, not a verified final shipment total. Later export data and later WASDE reports may show a different figure.
Ending stocks and price
Ending stocks are what remains after a marketing year’s supply has been used. A lower ending-stocks figure means less corn is projected to carry over into the next season, even when production has not changed. USDA left the season-average farm price received by producers unchanged at $4.00 per bushel, so the export and stocks revisions did not carry into a price change in this report.
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What USDA changed for wheat
For wheat, USDA made no change to the aggregate 2025/26 supply and use categories. The report stated: “All of the supply and use categories for 2025/26 U.S. wheat are unchanged this month.” Within the use side, there were offsetting revisions between feed and residual use and exports. Those by-class shifts netted out at the category level. The season-average farm price was also unchanged, at $5.00 per bushel.
Supply, use and ending stocks: why the terms matter
Headlines often blur these measures, so it helps to separate them. Supply covers beginning stocks, production and imports. Use covers domestic consumption and exports. Ending stocks are the balance left after use. A report can leave supply untouched and still lower ending stocks, if use goes up. That is what happened with corn in December. The wheat report left all three measures unchanged in aggregate.
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| Measure (2025/26 U.S., December 2025 WASDE) | Corn | Wheat |
|---|---|---|
| Total supply | No change | No change |
| Exports | Raised 125 million bushels to 3.2 billion | Unchanged in aggregate; offsetting by-class revisions to feed and residual use and exports |
| Ending stocks | Lowered 125 million bushels to 2.0 billion | Not stated in the report summary used for this article |
| Season-average farm price | Unchanged at $4.00 per bushel | Unchanged at $5.00 per bushel |
What WASDE is and how its numbers are built
The WASDE is USDA’s monthly report of annual supply and use forecasts. It covers U.S. and world wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds and cotton. It also includes U.S. sugar, meat, poultry, eggs and milk, and Mexico’s sugar supply and use. The World Agricultural Outlook Board, which chairs USDA’s interagency commodity committees, prepares and releases the report.
Inputs
USDA’s short-term outlook draws on producer and industry surveys, market reports, trade data, foreign attaché reports, satellite imagery, weather information and program data. These feed into a combination of data, economic models, statistical analysis and expert judgment. The projections are developed through a two-week consensus process among USDA analysts.
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What a forecast is not
A WASDE figure is an estimate. It is not a guarantee of market outcomes, and it is revised as new data arrives. The December 2025 numbers describe the 2025/26 marketing year as USDA saw it on that date.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to check the current figures
- Open the December 9, 2025 WASDE (report WASDE-666) from USDA’s Economics, Statistics and Market Information System, which hosts WASDE publications.
- Find the U.S. corn and wheat supply and use tables for 2025/26, and note the total supply, exports, ending stocks and season-average price lines.
- Open the most recent WASDE and compare the same lines. Revisions for the same marketing year are common from month to month.
- For wheat context, read the Economic Research Service’s “Wheat Outlook: December 2025,” which explains changes to the December wheat projections. The ERS “Wheat Data” product carries historical WASDE supply and disappearance tables.
The December 2025 figures are useful as a record of one report. For decisions made in late 2026, use the newest WASDE, since later reports may have revised these 2025/26 balance sheets.
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