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In August 2023, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast that the U.S. agricultural trade deficit would reach $27.5 billion in fiscal year 2024, about 45% above its revised $19.0 billion forecast for FY2023. Those were projections made at the time, not current figures or a statement of the eventual result.
What USDA meant by a 45% increase
USDA’s August 2023 forecast put the FY2024 agricultural trade balance at negative $27.5 billion, compared with negative $19.0 billion in its revised FY2023 forecast. The difference is $8.5 billion; $8.5 billion divided by $19.0 billion is approximately 44.7%, rounded to 45%. USDA cautioned that totals may not agree exactly because the figures are rounded.
In the USDA report, a fiscal year runs from October 1 of the preceding calendar year through September 30 of the named year. Thus, FY2024 covered October 1, 2023, through September 30, 2024. The comparison is between two USDA forecasts, not between a forecast and a later reported actual.
USDA’s forecast for exports, imports, and the balance
The figures below are forecast values in USDA’s August 2023 report, Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: August 2023 (AES-125), prepared by the Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. USDA report.
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| Fiscal year and forecast | Exports | Imports | Trade balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023, revised forecast | $177.5 billion | $196.5 billion | -$19.0 billion |
| FY2024 forecast | $172.0 billion | $199.5 billion | -$27.5 billion |
The balance is the net of exports and imports: a negative balance means the forecast value of agricultural imports exceeded exports. Because USDA reports rounded estimates, the balance may not equal a subtraction of the displayed export and import figures exactly.
Why USDA expected the deficit to widen
Imports were forecast to increase
USDA projected FY2024 imports of $199.5 billion, $3.0 billion above its revised FY2023 estimate. It attributed the increase to higher horticultural and livestock-product imports and stabilizing global prices. The report also anticipated more imports from Mexico, especially fruits and vegetables, and noted that Mexico and Canada together accounted for a large share of U.S. agricultural imports. These were expectations in the 2023 outlook, not claims about present-day trade.
Exports were forecast to fall
USDA projected exports of $172.0 billion, 3% below its FY2023 forecast, citing lower soybean, soybean meal, and dairy exports as major factors. The FY2024 projection was based on policies then in effect and U.S. production forecasts from the August 11, 2023 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates release.
FERN’s Ag Insider reported that USDA expected $33 billion in agricultural exports to China in FY2024, $3 billion below FY2023. It described soybeans as a major part of the expected decline and cited weaker Chinese import demand and competition from Brazil. Those explanations belong to the dated forecast; they do not establish what later happened to exports. FERN’s Ag Insider report, published September 5, 2023.
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The headline describes a specific USDA projection published in August 2023. It should not be read as a current estimate, a final FY2024 result, or a forecast that remains in force. USDA’s Outlook series forecasts agricultural imports and exports by country and sector for an upcoming fiscal year; the agency also provides periodically updated trade tables and data for checking subsequent figures. For a current assessment, consult the latest USDA release rather than carrying forward the 2023 projection. USDA ERS Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States (FATUS).
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