USDA’s September 3, 2026 forecast projects that U.S. net farm income will fall in calendar year 2026: down 2.6% in nominal dollars and 5.5% after inflation compared with 2025. But the current forecast alone does not verify that this is the third consecutive annual decline. It also projects slightly higher nominal net cash farm income, illustrating why the measure—and whether inflation is included—matters.
Is farm income falling again?
For the U.S. farm sector, the latest USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) outlook forecasts lower net farm income in 2026 than in 2025. Net farm income is a broad measure of profits. ERS forecasts $158.4 billion for 2026, a $4.3 billion (2.6%) nominal decrease. In 2026 dollars, the projected decline is $9.1 billion, or 5.5%. These are forecasts, not final results. ERS forecast and data resources.
The “third year” wording requires a longer, consistently defined series. The September 3, 2026 forecast establishes a year-over-year decline from 2025 to 2026, but does not by itself establish three consecutive declines. The result can depend on whether the comparison uses net farm income or another measure, nominal or inflation-adjusted dollars, and forecasts or later revised estimates. ERS makes archived data available, and estimates can be revised.
What does USDA forecast for 2026?
The figures below are ERS forecasts for calendar year 2026 compared with 2025. Nominal figures are not adjusted for inflation; the real changes are inflation-adjusted. ERS Farm Sector Income Forecast and forecast highlights, updated September 3, 2026.
| Measure | 2026 forecast | Change from 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Net farm income | $158.4 billion nominal | Down $4.3 billion (2.6%) nominally; down $9.1 billion (5.5%) after inflation, in 2026 dollars |
| Net cash farm income | $176.4 billion nominal | Up $0.7 billion (0.4%) nominally; down $4.6 billion (2.5%) after inflation |
| Farm cash receipts | $540.3 billion nominal | Down $1.7 billion (0.3%) |
| Production expenses | $492.8 billion nominal | Up $21.2 billion (4.5%) |
| Direct government farm payments | $47.4 billion | Up $19.5 billion; excludes USDA loans and FCIC insurance indemnity payments |
The two income measures do not tell the same story. Net cash farm income is forecast to rise slightly in nominal terms but decline after inflation. It uses cash receipts and farm-related cash income, including federal payments, minus cash expenses. Net farm income also includes noncash items such as inventory changes, economic depreciation, and imputed rental income of operator dwellings. Those differences help explain why their totals and year-over-year changes diverge.
Why are expenses rising while crop receipts increase?
ERS forecasts a small overall drop in cash receipts because the projected decline in animal and animal-product receipts outweighs the increase in crop receipts. Meanwhile, production expenses are forecast to rise. These are sector-wide projections; they do not mean every commodity, farm, or region will follow the same pattern.
| 2026 forecast component | Amount | Change from 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Crop receipts | $253.0 billion nominal | Up $14.6 billion (6.1%) |
| Animal and animal-product receipts | $287.3 billion nominal | Down $16.4 billion (5.4%) |
| Production expenses | $492.8 billion nominal | Up $21.2 billion (4.5%) |
ERS attributes most of the forecast expense increase to livestock and poultry purchases, fertilizer, lime and soil conditioners, and fuel and oils. Higher projected government payments—largely expected commodity payments tied to prices or revenues and increased supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance—also affect the income outlook. The $47.4 billion direct-payment forecast excludes USDA loans and FCIC insurance indemnity payments.
Why can farm businesses and households fare differently?
Sector totals, farm-business averages, and household medians describe different populations and kinds of income. A sector-wide decline does not mean every farm or farm household will see income fall.
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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors- Farm-business average: ERS forecasts average net cash farm income of $121,700 per farm business in 2026, up 7.1% nominally. ERS defines farm businesses using gross cash farm income and operator-occupation criteria; this is not an average for every farm operation.
- Farm-household median: Median total farm household income is forecast at $108,460 in 2026, up 4.8% nominally and 1.2% after inflation from 2025. It includes off-farm income, which is an important reason household income can move differently from farm-sector profit.
- Farm income within households: The median farm income earned by farm households is forecast at -$467, approximately stable in inflation-adjusted terms from -$495 in 2025. This farm-income component is not the same as total household income.
These distinctions are why higher forecast average farm-business cash income and higher median household income can coexist with lower forecast net farm income for the sector. ERS forecast highlights and Farm Household Income Forecast, updated September 3, 2026.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What would substantiate “third year”?
To establish a three-year sequence, compare the same ERS measure across all three years and use a consistent basis. For example, a claim about net farm income should not switch to net cash farm income for one year, or mix nominal figures with inflation-adjusted figures. It should also identify whether the numbers are forecasts from particular release dates or later estimates, since ERS revisions can change historical values.
ERS’s Farm Income and Wealth Statistics provides the official data and archive needed for that check. The September 2026 outlook supports the narrower statement that net farm income is forecast to decline in 2026 compared with 2025; the three-year sequence is not established by that update alone.
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