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“U.S. Wheat Farmers Are Open for Business” was the title of a Successful Farming article published April 16, 2020. Its description of trade access and pandemic-era export operations is a historical snapshot, not a current market update. USDA’s September 2026 outlook still places U.S. wheat in global export markets, but forecasts the country will be the fifth-largest exporter in 2026/27, with exports at a three-year low.
What “open for business” meant in the 2020 article
Bill Spiegel’s April 16, 2020 article covered U.S. wheat exports during the early COVID-19 period. It discussed the then-recent USMCA and U.S.-Japan agreements, China trade, market development, and pandemic-era logistics. Vince Peterson, then president of U.S. Wheat Associates, said: “We are happy to tell them that in the case of the U.S., not only are we still open, but also everything is rolling almost as it is under normal circumstances.” That was his assessment during the article’s 2020 reporting; it is not evidence about current shipping conditions or access to any particular country. Successful Farming’s 2020 article
The article reported Mexico’s U.S. wheat imports at about 3.8 million metric tons (144 million bushels) annually at that time. It also described China’s 9.6-million-metric-ton tariff-rate quota and Peterson’s estimate that wheat could account for about four million metric tons of it. These are figures reported in 2020, not verified current import volumes or policy conditions.
What USDA forecasts for U.S. wheat exports now
In its September 2026 outlook, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) forecasts the United States to be the fifth-largest wheat exporter in the 2026/27 marketing year. It projects U.S. exports at a three-year low, citing limited domestic supplies associated with drought and the smallest planted area on record. These are forecasts, not final shipment totals. USDA ERS, September 2026 outlook
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The same outlook forecasts global wheat trade in 2026/27 to decline 6 percent from the previous year’s record. That broader contraction matters: U.S. export prospects depend not only on domestic production, but also on demand and the available supplies of competing exporters. USDA’s outlook describes changing crop and export forecasts by country, so a U.S. ranking alone does not explain the conditions in an individual destination market.
How to read the production and export-share figures
USDA ERS estimates U.S. wheat production for 2025/26 at 1.98 billion bushels from 37.2 million harvested acres. Separately, ERS forecasts the U.S. share of global wheat exports at around 11 percent for the 2025/26 international trade year, which runs July through June. The production estimate and export-share forecast describe different measures and periods; neither should be presented as a final result for 2026/27. USDA ERS wheat data and outlook
For U.S. wheat data, ERS defines the marketing year as June 1 through May 31. International trade comparisons may instead use a July–June trade year. When comparing figures, check the year definition as well as whether the number is an estimate, forecast, or observed outcome. USDA ERS wheat data documentation
Why wheat class matters to export markets
“Wheat” is not a single interchangeable product. USDA ERS tracks supply, demand, trade, and prices across five U.S. classes:
- Hard Red Winter
- Hard Red Spring
- Soft Red Winter
- White
- Durum
In the 2020 article, Peterson explained the role of end use: “They’re buying our wheats because they fit some part of the formulation of those products, just like our millers do in the United States.” His point was that suitability in a buyer’s milling or product formulation can matter. The quotation describes his explanation in 2020; it does not establish current buyer preferences or price premiums for any class.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the title does—and does not—tell you
The title captures an industry view expressed in 2020: U.S. wheat was being marketed to overseas buyers and export operations were described as continuing during the early pandemic. It should not be read as a present-day guarantee of open access, active purchases, or normal logistics in a specific country. The current USDA outlook instead points to a more constrained U.S. export position, with limited domestic supplies and global competition shaping the forecast.
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For a useful comparison, identify the date and year convention, distinguish forecast from completed shipments, and check wheat class, U.S. crop supply, and competitor supply. Those details make an export claim more meaningful than the broad phrase “open for business.”
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