In March 2024, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) revised its estimate of China’s soybean imports by relying on statistics reported by Argentina, Brazil, and the United States, with a lag to allow for delivery time. ERS said it changed its approach after a widening mismatch emerged between China’s official import figures and exporters’ shipment statistics in 2023. The report identified the discrepancy but did not explain its cause.
What changed in USDA’s estimate?
In its March 12, 2024 Oil Crops Outlook, ERS said it examined China’s official import statistics alongside figures from major exporters. For its estimate of China’s marketing year (MY) 2022/23 imports, it used official soybean statistics reported by Argentina, Brazil, and the United States, lagged to account for delivery time. USDA ERS’s March 2024 report describes that method.
The change was tied to a growing gap between China’s official import figures and shipments reported by major exporters during calendar 2023. ERS did not quantify that gap in the cited discussion or state why the sources diverged. The discrepancy alone therefore does not establish misreporting, smuggling, or a particular policy action.
How large were the revisions?
| Marketing year | Figure after the March 2024 update | Change reported by ERS | What the figure represents |
|---|---|---|---|
| MY 2022/23 | 104.5 million metric tons | Up 3.7 million metric tons | Revised historical estimate |
| MY 2023/24 | 105.0 million metric tons | Up 3.0 million metric tons | Updated forecast |
Both figures are from ERS’s March 2024 report. They are not the same kind of number: the MY 2022/23 figure revises an earlier estimate, while the MY 2023/24 figure was a forecast at the time.
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Why shipment timing matters
Exporter shipment statistics and China’s reported imports do not necessarily describe the same cargoes in the same period. ERS said it lagged exporter statistics to account for delivery time. That adjustment is important when comparing trade figures: a shipment recorded by an exporting country may arrive and appear in China’s import data later.
For any China soybean-import figure, check four details before treating it as comparable to another number:
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- Publisher: ERS, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Beijing office, China Customs, or an industry source.
- Measure: customs-reported arrivals, exporter-reported shipments, an estimate, or a forecast.
- Period and date: the marketing year covered and when the figure was published.
- Timing adjustment: whether exporter shipments were lagged to account for transit and delivery.
What later USDA reporting says—and does not say
Later FAS Beijing reports continued to evaluate major exporters’ shipments to China against China Customs data. Its 2025 report also noted widening discrepancies between released Chinese soybean arrivals and exporter departures, and said industry forecasts varied because publishers used their own data and analysis. FAS Beijing’s 2025 China report provides that context.
In its 2026 annual report, FAS Beijing estimated MY 2024/25 and forecast MY 2025/26 using historical adjustments in the latest WASDE report and comparisons of exporter shipments with China Customs data. Its executive summary forecast China’s MY 2026/27 soybean imports at 108 million metric tons, 2 million metric tons above its MY 2025/26 projection. The 2026 FAS Beijing report explicitly says its forecasts and revised estimates are issued by FAS China and are not official USDA data. These later country-office figures should not be treated as interchangeable with ERS estimates, China Customs observations, or exporter shipment totals.
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