USDA’s September 3, 2026 forecast expects U.S. net farm income to fall 2.6% in nominal terms and 5.5% after inflation in calendar year 2026, even as direct government farm payments rise 69.8%. The figures are forecasts, not final 2026 results. The contrast reflects different parts of the farm-sector accounts: payments are projected to jump, while total receipts edge lower and production expenses climb.
What USDA forecasts for farm income in 2026
The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) forecast puts net farm income at $158.4 billion for calendar year 2026. That is $4.3 billion, or 2.6%, below the 2025 estimate in nominal dollars. After adjusting for inflation, the projected decline is $9.1 billion, or 5.5%. If realized, net farm income would still be above its inflation-adjusted 2006–25 average. These are U.S. sector-wide estimates, not a prediction for every farm.
ERS describes net farm income as a broad measure of farm-sector profits. Its September 3, 2026 Farm Sector Income Forecast and Highlights reports the forecast; the amount may change as USDA receives new information and replaces preliminary data with final figures.
Why payments can rise while farm income falls
Direct government farm payments are forecast to total $47.4 billion in 2026, up $19.5 billion, or 69.8%, from $27.9 billion in 2025. ERS attributes the increase to anticipated higher Farm Bill payments triggered by low commodity prices or revenues, along with high supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance. USDA says the forecast reflects payments under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1).
#1 Best Overall
Payments are one component of farm income, not a measure of total profitability on their own. At the same time that payments rise, ERS forecasts lower total cash receipts and higher production expenses. The payment forecast therefore does not imply that the broader net farm income measure must rise.
What the forecast includes in direct payments
USDA’s direct-payment measure covers direct federal program payments to farmers and ranchers. It excludes USDA loans and Federal Crop Insurance Corporation indemnity payments. ERS lists these components of the 2026 forecast:
Rank #2
![Express Accounts Accounting Software Free [PC Download]](https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/41kiz1fP83L._SL160_.jpg)
- Manage your payments and deposit transactions
- Check balances and generate reports to monitor your business finances
- Email and fax reports to your accountant
- Create and track quotes, invoices and more
- Connect to the app with secure web access
- Supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance: $26.5 billion.
- Farm Bill payments tied to commodity prices or revenue: $15.6 billion.
- Conservation payments: $5.3 billion.
- Dairy Margin Coverage payments: $169.9 million.
The published component figures are rounded and are not necessarily a complete arithmetic reconciliation to the $47.4 billion total.
Net farm income and net cash farm income are different
The two measures point in different directions because they count different things. Net cash farm income tracks cash inflows and outflows. Net farm income is broader, incorporating noncash items as well as cash results.
| Measure | 2026 forecast versus 2025 | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| Net farm income | $158.4 billion; down $4.3 billion (2.6%) nominally and down $9.1 billion (5.5%) after inflation adjustment. | Broad farm-sector profit measure, including noncash items. |
| Net cash farm income | $176.4 billion; up $0.7 billion (0.4%) nominally, but down $4.6 billion (2.5%) in inflation-adjusted 2026 dollars. | Cash receipts from farming plus cash farm-related income, including federal payments, minus cash expenses; excludes inventory changes, economic depreciation, and imputed rental income of operator dwellings. |
Thus, saying “farm income will fall” refers to the net farm income forecast unless the specific measure is named. Net cash farm income is slightly higher in nominal dollars, but lower after inflation adjustment.
Receipts are forecast to edge down as expenses rise
ERS forecasts total cash receipts of $540.3 billion in 2026, down $1.7 billion, or 0.3%, nominally. Crop and livestock-related receipts move in opposite directions:
- Crop receipts are forecast to rise $14.6 billion, or 6.1%, to $253.0 billion.
- Animal and animal-product receipts are forecast to fall $16.4 billion, or 5.4%, to $287.3 billion.
Production expenses, including operator dwellings, are forecast to reach $492.8 billion, an increase of $21.2 billion, or 4.5%, in nominal terms. After inflation adjustment, the increase is forecast at $7.1 billion, or 1.5%. The receipts and expense projections help explain why a large increase in payments can coexist with a lower broad profit forecast; they are components of the outlook, not a separate quantified attribution of the net-income change.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the farm-business forecast does—and does not—say
ERS separately forecasts average net cash farm income for “farm businesses” to rise 7.1% to $121,700 per farm in 2026 nominally. USDA defines a farm business as a farm with annual gross cash farm income of at least $350,000, or a smaller operation whose operator reports farming as their primary occupation. This is an average for a defined subgroup, not a sector-wide average and not a result that applies to every U.S. farm. See ERS’s Farm Business Income information.
Recommended Free Tools
Best Value
How to read this forecast
- Check the measure. Net farm income and net cash farm income are not interchangeable.
- Check the dollar basis. Nominal figures do not account for inflation; an inflation-adjusted change can differ in size or direction.
- Check the population. Sector-wide totals and the farm-business subgroup describe different populations.
- Check the forecast date. The figures here are from ERS’s September 3, 2026 forecast, not final results for the year.
ERS says its estimates can be revised when new information becomes available and preliminary data are replaced with final data. Its Farm Income and Wealth Statistics product says releases occur three times per year; the next release after the September 3 update was scheduled for December 2, 2026. Consult the latest ERS release for any subsequent revisions. The aggregate forecast cannot establish a particular producer’s payment eligibility, payment amount, or financial condition.
Quick Recap
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
