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Tuya’s 2026 Outlook: Can Its Software Strategy Sustain Margin Expansion?

Tuya’s high-margin software services support a possible path to stronger margins, but lower consolidated gross margin in Q2 2026 makes sustained expansion unproven.
From TheFinanceBase Team5 min to read
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Tuya’s software businesses give it a credible route to higher gross margins, but recent results do not show that margin expansion is sustained. For FY2025, the company reported a 72.5% gross margin for SaaS and others, versus 23.7% for Smart Solution. Yet consolidated gross margin fell year over year in Q2 2026. For investors, the key question is whether higher-margin services can grow without being outweighed by hardware mix, pricing pressure or rising input costs.

What Tuya sells—and why its mix matters

Tuya describes itself as an AI cloud platform provider serving smart-device developers, businesses, brands and original equipment manufacturers. Its offerings span Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS), Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), cloud-based value-added services, and smart solutions that combine hardware and software. That makes Tuya a blend of platform, software and hardware-integrated businesses—not a pure software company. Tuya’s investor-relations materials describe this range of offerings.

The margin thesis rests on the fact that these business lines have very different gross margins. If higher-margin services become a larger part of revenue, they could support consolidated margin. But that outcome is not automatic: the growth rates and revenue shares of each business, along with prices and costs, also determine the result.

What FY2025 results say about the thesis

Tuya Inc.’s 2026 reporting for the year ended December 31, 2025, put revenue at US$321.8 million, up 7.8% year over year. Overall gross margin rose to 48.2% from 47.4% in FY2024. The business-line comparison gives the mix argument its clearest support:

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Business line FY2025 gross margin FY2024 gross margin Year-over-year change
PaaS 48.3% 47.1% Up 1.2 percentage points
SaaS and others 72.5% 71.9% Up 0.6 percentage points
Smart Solution 23.7% 25.5% Down 1.8 percentage points
Overall 48.2% 47.4% Up 0.8 percentage points

The SaaS and others margin was substantially higher than Smart Solution’s, while the latter declined. That is consistent with a strategy that seeks more value from software and services. It does not, by itself, establish that a shift toward software caused the overall improvement: the figures above are gross margins, not the revenue mix or growth rate of each line. The company also reported a FY2025 non-GAAP operating margin of 10.5%; this is a separate, non-GAAP operating measure and should not be confused with gross margin. Tuya’s FY2025 results and annual-report materials provide the company-reported figures.

Why Q2 2026 complicates the picture

In unaudited Q2 2026 results released August 24, 2026, Tuya reported US$92.9 million in revenue, up 16.0% year over year. Revenue growth, however, came alongside a lower consolidated gross margin: 46.3%, down 2.1 percentage points from 48.4% in Q2 2025.

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Business line Q2 2026 gross margin Q2 2025 gross margin Year-over-year change
PaaS 46.8% 48.7% Down 1.9 percentage points
AI Application & others 72.0% 72.0% Unchanged
Smart home and robot products 21.9% 22.5% Down 0.6 percentage points
Overall 46.3% 48.4% Down 2.1 percentage points

The quarterly figures reinforce the gap between software-related services and hardware-linked product activity, but they also show that a high service margin does not prevent consolidated margin from falling. PaaS and smart home and robot product margins both declined year over year, while the reported AI Application & others margin was unchanged. The quarterly segment label also differs from the FY2025 “SaaS and others” label: Tuya renamed the revenue stream “AI Application & others” in Q1 2026, so comparisons across periods should be read with that naming change in mind. Tuya’s Q2 2026 results report these unaudited figures.

What management is trying to do in 2026

Tuya says its “AI + Platform” strategy involves enhancing AI-powered PaaS and SaaS offerings, developing industry-focused applications such as space intelligence, and expanding its developer ecosystem. In its Q1 2026 reporting, it said it would focus the renamed AI Application & others revenue stream on subscription-based value-added services powered by large-scale AI models.

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For Q2 2026, management highlighted AI-native application innovation, development of an AI developer platform, and global expansion of solutions it considers validated. These priorities could support service adoption, but the available results do not establish how much additional revenue or margin they will produce. The strategic case needs to be tested against subsequent revenue mix and margin data, rather than assumed from the stated focus.

What could help—or hinder—margin expansion

Business mix and operating execution

Tuya attributes gross-margin movements primarily to product and solution mix; it also cites semiconductor supply-chain price changes for the latest quarter. A shift toward higher-margin services could help, but the effect depends on which lines grow, at what rate, and whether their own margins hold. Operating efficiency is another stated priority, but execution alone cannot be inferred from gross-margin data.

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Demand and trade conditions

In its FY2025 annual-report outlook, management described the connected-device environment as complex but more stable than earlier in the year. It also noted cautious planning among manufacturers, brands and channel partners, with project execution more normalized in some core categories. These are management’s assessments, not independent forecasts.

The same outlook identifies risks that may affect demand, costs or execution:

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Management says it plans selective investment while pursuing AI-powered platform offerings, industry applications, developer-ecosystem growth, customer expansion and operating efficiency. Those priorities describe intended actions; they do not remove the disclosed risks. Tuya’s FY2025 annual-report outlook sets out the company’s assessment.

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How to assess the outlook as an investor

To judge whether the strategy is translating into durable margin progress, track revenue growth and margin change separately, then examine whether the reported business mix supports the explanation. The following checks keep the thesis tied to evidence rather than a single headline figure:

  • Consolidated gross margin: Does it rise across multiple reporting periods, or does quarterly movement continue to reflect mix and input-cost pressures?
  • Segment margins: Do PaaS and AI Application & others maintain their margins as they grow, and how do hardware-linked margins move?
  • Revenue mix and growth: Are higher-margin services gaining share, and are they growing quickly enough to affect the consolidated result? Margin percentages alone do not answer this.
  • Operating measures: Keep gross margin distinct from operating margin, and distinguish GAAP results from non-GAAP measures such as Tuya’s FY2025 non-GAAP operating margin.
  • Management’s catalysts and risks: Compare progress on AI applications, platform development and customer expansion with disclosed exposure to inventory, regional demand, currencies, trade and semiconductor pricing.

Results through Q2 2026 provide a plausible basis for a software-led margin thesis, not a definitive forecast of 2026 expansion. The next evidence needed is a consistent pattern in consolidated margin alongside business-line growth, mix and cost drivers.

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