Partly. On December 17, 2024, Deepwater Asset Management analyst Gene Munster predicted that Donald Trump would waive Apple’s China tariffs to prevent the company from losing ground to Samsung. In April 2025, the administration did provide major relief for smartphones, computers and other electronics—but through broader tariff exclusions, not a permanent Apple-specific waiver.
What the analyst actually predicted
Munster’s forecast, reported by 9to5Mac, was an analyst opinion—not a White House announcement or confirmed policy.
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The argument was straightforward: Trump would not want tariffs to weaken Apple against Samsung or Tesla against BYD. If Apple-made products imported from China became substantially more expensive in the United States, Samsung could gain a pricing advantage because its manufacturing footprint was more geographically diversified.
That was a comparative argument, not a claim that Samsung was completely free of tariff exposure. Samsung’s treatment would still depend on the product, country of origin, assembly location and applicable tariff classification.
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Why Samsung was central to the argument
Apple historically relied heavily on China-based assembly for iPhones and other hardware. A tariff on those imports could affect Apple in several ways:
- Higher U.S. prices for affected products.
- Lower margins if Apple absorbed part of the cost.
- Pressure on suppliers, distributors or retailers.
- A competitive disadvantage against phones with less China-related production exposure.
Apple’s exposure was never simply a matter of where final assembly occurred. Components such as displays, batteries, chips, mechanical parts and accessories can involve separate suppliers and tariff classifications. Moving assembly to another country can reduce exposure without eliminating China-linked costs.
The 2019 precedent involving Tim Cook
Munster’s prediction also drew on Trump’s first administration. In 2019, Trump said Apple CEO Tim Cook had made a persuasive case for tariff relief. The reported logic was that Apple could be disadvantaged because Samsung manufactured more products outside China.
That history made a second round of relief plausible, but it did not prove that the next administration would repeat the same approach. A past company-specific discussion is not the same as a future guarantee.
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What happened in April 2025
The later policy outcome was more complicated than the headline suggested:
- December 17, 2024: Deepwater’s prediction was reported by 9to5Mac.
- April 2, 2025: The administration announced broad “reciprocal” tariff measures, including severe China-related rates. The Congressional Research Service timeline records the subsequent changes and pauses.
- April 11–12, 2025: Smartphones, computers, semiconductors and certain related electronics were excluded from portions of the new tariff regime. The exclusions were reported as applying retroactively to covered imports entering or withdrawn from warehouses beginning April 5.
- April 13, 2025: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the products could later be covered by a separate semiconductor tariff regime.
Apple benefited because it still manufactured a substantial share of its products in China. But the measure covered product categories and tariff classifications rather than naming Apple as the sole beneficiary. Other electronics companies, including Samsung, could benefit from the same rules.
Reporting on the exclusions is available from Reuters coverage reproduced by Apple News and Axios.
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Repair common Windows errors and clear accumulated junk for a smoother, more stable PC - no reinstall needed.Free scan · no reinstallWhy this was not a permanent Apple waiver
“Tariff relief” is more accurate than “Apple waiver.” The 2025 action did not necessarily remove every tariff that could affect Apple. A covered iPhone, Mac or computer could still face risk from:
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- A later semiconductor or sector-specific tariff.
- Tariffs imposed under a different legal authority.
- Duties on components, batteries, chargers or accessories.
- Country-of-origin or customs-classification disputes.
- Future changes to exclusions or trade agreements.
The distinction matters because tariff systems can contain several layers. Exclusion from one tariff program does not automatically exempt a product from every other duty.
The U.S. Trade Representative’s tariff-actions page and the CRS timeline are better guides to the relevant authority, product scope and effective dates than a single headline rate.
Apple’s move toward India
Apple and its suppliers also accelerated efforts to produce more iPhones in India for the U.S. market during 2025. That strategy could reduce the tariff exposure of U.S.-bound devices, but it did not mean Apple had ended production in China or severed its China-linked supply chain.
Assembly can move faster than the broader supplier network. A phone assembled in India may still contain components sourced through China or other parts of Asia. In addition, tariff treatment depends on customs rules and the specific product—not simply the location of final assembly.
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What it meant for consumers
Without electronics relief, tariffs could have produced some combination of higher iPhone and Mac prices, lower Apple margins, delayed inventory decisions, faster production relocation and greater discounting by competitors.
The exclusions reduced the immediate risk of an extreme price shock for covered products. They did not guarantee that prices would remain unchanged. Companies can divide tariff costs among customers, suppliers, retailers and shareholders, and future tariff actions could change the calculation.
Estimates that a high tariff scenario might have pushed an iPhone’s price dramatically higher were scenario analyses, not actual retail prices. They should not be treated as evidence that any specific iPhone would sell for $2,300 or $3,500.
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What it meant for investors
Tariff relief potentially reduced Apple’s near-term margin risk and gave the company more time to diversify production. It also lowered the immediate probability of a tariff-driven price increase that could weaken demand.
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However, the policy did not eliminate Apple’s risks. Investors still had to consider:
- Reversal or expiration of exclusions.
- Future semiconductor tariffs.
- Chinese retaliation.
- Higher costs from relocating production.
- Apple’s sales performance in China.
- Competition from Samsung and Chinese smartphone brands.
Apple’s share-price performance should not be attributed to tariff relief alone without specific evidence. Tariffs were one factor among many affecting the company and the broader market.
Was Munster’s prediction correct?
Directionally, it was partly accurate. Apple did receive substantial relief after the administration imposed broad China-related tariffs, limiting the immediate threat to products such as iPhones and computers.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesMechanically, the forecast was different from what happened. The relief came through broader electronics exclusions rather than a clearly documented, permanent waiver written specifically for Apple because of Samsung.
The issue was not permanently settled. Officials indicated that electronics could later be addressed through a separate semiconductor tariff regime, while other duties and supply-chain exposures remained possible.
The most precise conclusion is that an analyst predicted Apple would be spared to preserve its competitive position. The administration later created a broad electronics carve-out that benefited Apple, but the policy was conditional, classification-specific and vulnerable to future changes.
What to watch when evaluating future Apple tariff headlines
- Whether the announcement names Apple or applies to an entire product category.
- Which tariff authority is involved.
- Whether the exclusion covers finished devices, components or both.
- The product’s country of origin and customs classification.
- The effective date and whether the measure is retroactive.
- Whether officials describe the relief as temporary or subject to a future semiconductor review.
For consumers comparing phones, the relevant question is not simply whether Apple or Samsung is “tariff-free.” It is how each specific model is assembled, classified and priced after trade policy, supply-chain costs, carrier promotions and company pricing decisions are taken into account.
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