In a March 9, 2025, interview on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, President Donald Trump did not predict a recession or rule one out. Asked whether he expected one that year, he said, “I hate to predict things like that,” and described the economy as being in a transition. He also argued that the stock market should not be the sole measure of whether his policies were working.
What did Trump say about a recession in 2025?
Trump declined to give a yes-or-no forecast. The Associated Press reported that, when asked if he expected a recession in 2025, he answered, “I hate to predict things like that,” and spoke of a transition period. That is different from predicting a recession: he left the possibility open without saying one would happen. Associated Press, March 9, 2025
In discussing the falling market, Trump said, “You can’t really watch the stock market.” The remark was reported in an AP retrospective on March 12. His point was that stock prices should not be the only scorecard for judging policy, not that the market had not declined. Associated Press, March 12, 2025
What happened to stocks after the interview?
In its March 10, 2025, market report, Reuters said the S&P 500 fell 2.7% and the Nasdaq fell 4% that day. Those figures describe a single trading-day snapshot, not the full extent of the sell-off. Reuters connected the market uncertainty to tariffs and also cited a more pessimistic consumer survey and administration responses to recession concerns. The reporting does not establish that Trump’s interview alone caused the decline. Reuters via Investing.com, March 10, 2025
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A March 11 White House briefing transcript records a reporter saying the losses had erased the S&P 500’s gains since Election Day. That was the reporter’s framing at the briefing, not a market statistic from the March 9 interview. Roll Call / Factba.se, March 11, 2025
What did later GDP data show?
On June 26, 2025, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its third estimate showing that real GDP decreased at a 0.5% annual rate in the first quarter of 2025. BEA said the decline was driven primarily by increased imports and reduced government spending, partly offset by investment and consumer spending. This estimate came months after Trump’s interview and was revised from earlier estimates; it was not information available when he spoke. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, June 26, 2025
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Does a stock-market drop mean a recession?
No. A market index tracks share prices, which can move sharply in response to expectations and uncertainty. GDP measures the value of economic output over a quarter, and its estimates can be revised. A recession determination is a separate, broader judgment made retrospectively.
The National Bureau of Economic Research’s traditional definition describes a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” Its Business Cycle Dating Committee considers the depth, diffusion, and duration of a downturn together. A one-day sell-off does not establish that those conditions have been met. NBER, Business Cycle Dating Committee FAQ
The often-cited rule that two consecutive quarters of falling GDP automatically mean a recession is not the NBER’s method. One quarterly GDP estimate—especially one later revised—cannot by itself settle the question.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read the timeline
| Date | What it measures or records | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|
| March 9, 2025 | Trump’s interview comments on recession risk and the stock market. | A prediction that a recession would occur. |
| March 10, 2025 | Reuters’ reported one-day changes: S&P 500 down 2.7%, Nasdaq down 4%. | That the interview alone caused the losses or that a recession had begun. |
| June 26, 2025 | BEA’s third estimate of first-quarter real GDP, down at a 0.5% annual rate. | An NBER recession determination. |
These are different kinds of evidence: a political statement, daily market prices, a quarterly output estimate, and a retrospective business-cycle assessment. Keeping their dates and purposes separate avoids reading the later GDP figure back into what Trump knew in March.
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