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What the widely shared sales graphic claims
The figures circulated under the name “National Sales Executive Association” make two claims: how often salespeople follow up, and when sales supposedly happen. Stewart Rogers reproduced these percentages in a VentureBeat article published August 15, 2014:
- 48% of salespeople never follow up; 25% make a second contact and stop; 12% make three contacts and stop; and 10% make more than three contacts.
- 2% of sales are made on the first contact, 3% on the second, 5% on the third, 10% on the fourth, and 80% between the fifth and twelfth contact.
These are the graphic’s claims, not independently verified measurements. Repetition of a percentage—and a named organization attached to it—does not establish that the number came from a sound study.
What is known about the source
The 2014 challenge
Rogers reported that he could not find the “National Sales Executive Association” in the IRS, Council of Better Business Bureaus, and relevant company and organization records he checked. That describes his search in 2014; it does not establish that no related organization or historical survey ever existed. Read Rogers’s account at VentureBeat.
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SMEI’s account of a 1942 survey
In a post dated August 4, 2021, SMEI says a Long Island, New York chapter of the National Sales Executives Association (NSEA), which it describes as an earlier name, surveyed members in 1942 about calls made and sales made. SMEI reports that the sample contained fewer than 40 people. Its account does not publish the original survey form, dataset, or enough methodological detail to verify that the percentages in today’s graphic accurately reproduce the survey. Read SMEI’s account.
The two accounts are not proof that every version of the graphic is fabricated. Together, they point to a weak citation trail: a 2014 search that did not locate the named organization, and a later historical account of a small local survey that does not provide the underlying data needed to check the modern claims.
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How many calls does it take to make a sale?
There is no defensible universal number in the evidence described here. The historical account concerns fewer than 40 members of one local chapter in 1942, not a representative sample of modern salespeople, businesses, or customers. Without the original data and a clear definition of a “contact” or “sale,” the percentages cannot establish a general rule about how many attempts lead to a sale.
That does not mean follow-up is unimportant. It means these particular figures should not be used to set quotas, forecast revenue, or judge a salesperson’s performance as if they were current, broadly applicable findings. A useful benchmark needs evidence from a defined population and a method that matches the decision being made.
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How to vet a sales statistic before relying on it
SMEI recommends checking who conducted the research, potential bias, recency, and sample size. For a statistic you may use in a business or personal-finance decision, also check whether the primary evidence actually contains the exact figure being repeated.
Quick Recap
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- Find the original source. Follow the citation beyond articles, presentations, and social posts that repeat the number. Ask whether the underlying study or data is available.
- Check who and what were measured. Identify the population, location, time period, and what counts as a contact or a sale. A narrow historical sample cannot automatically stand in for a different market today.
- Look at sample size and method. A small sample may be useful as a limited observation, but it cannot by itself support a sweeping claim about all salespeople or sales.
- Consider recency and incentives. Ask whether the evidence still fits the current setting and whether the source has an interest in promoting the claim.
- Use the statistic only for the decision it can support. If the source cannot substantiate the number or its relevance, treat it as unverified rather than turning it into a target or forecast.
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