The S&P 500 bull market dated from its October 12, 2022 closing low reaches its fourth anniversary on October 12, 2026. That milestone is not a signal that the rally must end. Higher Treasury yields are a risk to stock valuations and financing costs, but earnings, economic growth and AI investment have also supported shares. The question is whether yields keep rising—and what is driving them—relative to those supports.
Why October 12 marks four years
Reuters dates the current S&P 500 bull market from the index’s closing low on October 12, 2022; October 12, 2026 is therefore its fourth anniversary. That is a convention for measuring this particular run, not a forecast or a deadline for its end. Reuters reported the anniversary and the rally’s supports on October 9, 2026.
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What the recent jump in Treasury yields tells us
On October 7, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield reached an intraday high of 5.36% before easing later in the day, according to the Associated Press. That is a dated intraday observation—not the closing rate for October 11 or a current quote. The AP’s October 7 market report described how higher yields can pressure stock and other asset prices and make borrowing more expensive.
For a daily closing figure, consult the U.S. Treasury’s daily Treasury yield curve data. A quoted 10-year constant-maturity rate is a point on the Treasury’s estimated par-yield curve, not necessarily the yield on one particular note with exactly ten years left until maturity. The Treasury says its official par curve has used a monotone convex spline method since December 6, 2021, and that constant-maturity points are derived from indicative bid-side quotations.
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Three ways higher yields can weigh on stocks
Valuations of future earnings
A stock’s value depends partly on the earnings investors expect in the future. When rates rise, investors may discount those future cash flows more heavily, reducing what they are willing to pay for them today. This is a valuation mechanism, not a rule that a particular yield automatically triggers a selloff.
Competition from bonds
Higher bond yields can make relatively predictable bond income more appealing compared with the uncertain returns of stocks. Investors may then demand a lower share price—or a stronger earnings outlook—to justify taking equity risk.
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More expensive borrowing
Higher rates can raise financing costs for companies and households. That may restrain business investment or consumer demand, which can in turn weigh on company revenue and earnings. The size of the effect varies with borrowers’ existing debt, refinancing needs and the broader economic outlook.
Why yields and stocks do not always move in opposite directions
The cause of a yield increase matters. A gradual rise linked to stronger growth can coincide with better prospects for corporate sales and profits. A sharp repricing driven by inflation concerns, fiscal worries or higher real rates may be more difficult for valuations and financing conditions. The distinction is not a reliable day-to-day trading rule: markets respond to expectations as well as reported data.
Recent market action illustrates why there is no simple “yields up, stocks down” formula. The AP reported a pullback on October 7 amid a sharp yield move; Reuters described the bull market near records two days later. A single day’s relationship does not establish what will happen next.
What has supported the bull market
Reuters identified corporate profits, economic growth and spending connected to artificial intelligence as supports for the rally. Those forces can offset some pressure from higher rates if earnings and growth remain strong enough to sustain investor expectations.
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The Federal Reserve’s July 2026 Monetary Policy Report also described strong technology shares associated with AI enthusiasm and earnings growth. It said corporate yields had risen moderately while spreads over comparable Treasury securities narrowed somewhat, remaining low by historical standards. Its May 2026 Financial Stability Report described nominal Treasury yields as elevated relative to levels over the previous 15 years. These reports provide context, but they predate October’s yield moves. Read the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Report and Financial Stability Report.
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Investors trying to assess whether rising yields are becoming a more serious headwind can watch several signals together. None reliably predicts a market peak on its own.
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- Persistence and composition of yield rises: Check whether increases are brief or sustained, and whether real yields or inflation expectations are doing more of the moving.
- Earnings outlook: Follow whether analysts’ expectations for company profits are rising or being revised down. Stronger earnings can help support share prices even as discount rates rise.
- Credit spreads and financing conditions: Wider spreads over Treasuries can indicate that borrowing is becoming more costly or credit risk is being reassessed. The Fed’s July report described spreads as low by historical standards at that time, not as an October reading.
- Market breadth: Consider whether gains are spreading across more companies or relying on a narrow group of large stocks. Breadth helps show how broadly the rally is participating, but does not time a turning point.
Morgan Stanley’s 2026 outlook says many bull markets last five to seven years and characterizes a fourth year as historically favorable. That is the firm’s historical framing, not an independent forecast, a guarantee of returns or evidence that this cycle must continue for a particular duration. The anniversary itself tells investors how long the run has lasted under Reuters’ convention; it cannot say when it will end.
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