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Why markets moved on October 5
The immediate trigger was a slower-than-expected pace of US job growth in September, together with sharp downward revisions to payroll figures for the two preceding months, according to Reuters’ October 5 market report. The report did not provide the job totals or the size of the revisions.
The employment news led investors to reduce bets on aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. CME FedWatch put the market-implied chance of an October rate increase at 22%, down from 64% a week earlier, as reported by Reuters. That probability describes market pricing at the time; it was neither a Fed commitment nor an official forecast, and it did not rule out a future increase.
How stocks, currencies and bonds traded
The figures below are Reuters’ October 5, 2026 snapshot, not live prices. Regional trading was thin, and Reuters said markets were taking their cue from Wall Street’s Friday moves.
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| Market | Reported move or level | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Japan’s Nikkei | Up 2% early in the session | Reuters, October 5, 2026 |
| Australian stocks | Up 0.5% | Reuters, October 5, 2026 |
| MSCI Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan | Up 0.15% | Reuters, October 5, 2026 |
| Nasdaq futures | Up 0.3% | Reuters, October 5, 2026 |
| S&P 500 futures | Up 0.1% | Reuters, October 5, 2026 |
| EUROSTOXX 50 futures | Up 0.3% | Reuters, October 5, 2026 |
| FTSE futures | Up 0.4% | Reuters, October 5, 2026 |
| Euro | $1.1243 | After recovering from a 17-month low, per Reuters |
| Sterling | $1.3241 | Reuters, October 5, 2026 |
| US dollar | 157.81 yen | Reuters, October 5, 2026 |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 5.2643% | Reuters market snapshot, October 5, 2026 |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 4.8143% | Reuters market snapshot, October 5, 2026 |
Why the dollar’s outlook was not one-way
Lower expectations for US rate increases can weigh on the dollar by narrowing the expected policy advantage over other currencies. Reuters also cited tighter policy elsewhere as a headwind. But the report described countervailing supports: stronger US growth relative to other economies and foreign demand for US securities.
Elias Haddad, BBH’s global head of markets strategy, said that tighter policy abroad and a stronger case for an October Fed pause were dollar headwinds, while US growth outperformance and foreign appetite for US securities kept the risks skewed to the upside. That was an analyst’s assessment, not a prediction guaranteed by the exchange-rate moves.
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Why Treasury yields did not simply fall with rate-hike bets
Bond yields were little changed or slightly lower in the session’s account, but Reuters noted that Treasury yields had risen on Friday after an initial dip following the jobs report. The 10-year yield was 5.2643% and the 2-year was 4.8143% in the October 5 snapshot. The report said global yields remained near multi-year highs amid fiscal concerns, heavy government issuance and elevated energy costs—forces that can offset the effect of softer rate expectations.
Cedric Lam, a senior investment strategist at Standard Chartered, said market technicals—including forced selling by hedge funds and real estate investment trusts—could delay lower yields temporarily. He said the firm did not expect an extended selloff and had initiated an opportunistic bullish idea on US 10-year government bonds. These were his views, not a guarantee of bond-market direction.
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Reuters quoted Brent crude at $102.20 a barrel, US crude at $90.75 a barrel and spot gold at $4,154.32 an ounce on October 5. It linked elevated oil to reported Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco sites; that is Reuters’ attribution in its market report. Higher energy costs were also part of the report’s explanation for pressure on global bond yields.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the session does—and does not—show
The day’s combination of firmer equities, a modestly weaker dollar and subdued bond yields was consistent with traders reassessing the likelihood of another near-term Fed increase after softer labor data. It does not establish what the Fed would decide, nor does one thinly traded session show that the market’s direction would persist. The 22% October probability was a snapshot of market-implied odds reported on October 5, 2026.
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