The often-cited $73 monthly increase is a forecast illustration—not the official 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), and not a promised amount for every beneficiary. As of October 11, 2026, the Social Security Administration (SSA) had not announced the 2027 COLA; contemporaneous coverage expected the announcement on October 14, after the September inflation reading was due.
What the $73 figure actually means
The $73 estimate comes from applying a projected 3.5% COLA to an assumed monthly benefit of $2,086. It is an average-based example reported by Benefit Day on September 30, 2026, not an SSA determination or an individualized estimate. Benefit Day’s forecast roundup listed estimates ranging from 3.4% to 3.6%, including 3.5% from The Senior Citizens League and 3.6% from AARP.
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Kiplinger used a slightly different benefit base: SSA’s August 2026 average retired-worker benefit of $2,087.52. At a hypothetical 3.5%, that produces an illustrative monthly increase of $73.06. Neither calculation says what a particular person’s benefit will rise by; the percentage is applied to the person’s own benefit amount.
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The 2027 COLA was still pending as of October 11, 2026. SSA says the next adjustment will be announced in October. September 14 was the expected announcement date identified in contemporaneous coverage, following the scheduled release of September inflation data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The forecast roundup gave October 14 as the expected date; it was not confirmation that the announcement had occurred. SSA’s COLA information
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The calculation uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), comparing third-quarter readings. At the research cut-off, the September 2026 reading—the last of the three monthly figures for that quarter—was not yet available. That left room for the estimate to move; a forecast based on incomplete quarter data is not the final adjustment.
How SSA calculates the COLA
SSA uses the arithmetic mean of the CPI-W readings for July, August, and September, then compares that third-quarter average with the corresponding average from the last year a COLA was determined. The resulting percentage is rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent. The adjustment is intended to help Social Security and Supplemental Security Income benefits keep pace with inflation. SSA’s COLA explanation and the 2026 Federal Register notice describe the method.
The latest completed adjustment at the cut-off was 2.8% for 2026. It applied to Social Security benefits payable in January 2026 and to SSI payments beginning December 31, 2025. That is a historical reference point, not a predictor of the 2027 rate. SSA’s 2026 COLA fact sheet
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Your benefit amount determines your gross increase
A percentage increase yields different dollar amounts for different benefit amounts. The $73 and $73.06 illustrations use average-benefit figures and a hypothetical 3.5% rate; they do not forecast each recipient’s payment. A recipient with a lower or higher benefit would see a correspondingly smaller or larger gross dollar change if that rate were ultimately adopted.
Medicare deductions can affect the amount deposited
The forecast illustrations are gross figures and do not subtract Medicare premiums. A Medicare Part B deduction can affect the net amount received, so the COLA percentage does not necessarily equal the change in a beneficiary’s bank deposit. The 2027 Part B premium had not been announced in the sources available as of October 11, so the size of any offset cannot yet be quantified.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read COLA estimates before the official announcement
- Check whether it is official. A published forecast is not the SSA’s final determination.
- Look at the percentage and benefit base. Dollar examples depend on the assumed monthly benefit; they are not personal estimates.
- Note when the forecast was made. Before the September CPI-W reading, the full third-quarter calculation was not available.
- Separate gross from net. Medicare deductions may change the payment that reaches an account.
For the official 2027 figure, use SSA’s COLA announcement rather than treating a forecast or average-based dollar example as a confirmed increase.
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