There is no published September 2026 pending-home-sales figure to show how much rising mortgage rates affected contracts. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) has scheduled its September report for October 20, 2026, at 10 a.m. Eastern. The latest result available as of October 7 is for August: pending sales rose 0.3% from July but were down 4.7% from a year earlier.
What the September figure can—and cannot—tell us
Pending home sales are based on signed contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. They are not completed sales. Because a home typically goes under contract one or two months before closing, the index can offer an early signal of future existing-home sales.
NAR’s release schedule lists the September 2026 report for October 20, 2026, at 10 a.m. Eastern. Until NAR publishes it, there is no measured September change to quantify. The title’s month does not specify a year; this article addresses September 2026, the upcoming report as of October 7.
The latest published result is for August
NAR reported that pending sales increased 0.3% month over month in August 2026 and fell 4.7% year over year. Those are August comparisons, not September results. NAR’s August release also said that monthly gains in the South and West were offset by declines in the Northeast and Midwest; pending sales were lower year over year in all four regions.
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Mortgage rates provide context, not a causal breakdown
Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.95% for the week of September 17, 2026, up from 6.76% the prior week and 6.26% a year earlier, according to the Associated Press. This is one weekly observation, not a September monthly average.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said of August: “Buyers steadily entered into contracts in August even though mortgage rates increased.” That statement describes the observed combination of contract activity and rates; it does not establish that rates alone caused the index’s movement. The index measures signed-contract activity, while attributing a change to mortgage rates requires more than observing that rates rose around the same time.
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How to read the September report when it arrives
When NAR releases its September figures, keep the comparisons and rate dates distinct:
Quick Recap
- Read the month-over-month change as the movement from August to September, and the year-over-year change as the comparison with September 2025.
- Check the regional results as well as the national number; regional directions can differ.
- Match rate observations as closely as possible to the period when contracts were signed, and label weekly figures as weekly rather than monthly averages.
- Treat the index movement as measured activity, not proof that mortgage rates explain the entire change.
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