Before placing a prediction-market trade, check more than the displayed price. Your total cost can include a venue fee, the spread between the best bid and ask, and a worse average price if your order consumes multiple levels of the book. Also confirm the market’s exact settlement condition: similar headlines can describe contracts that resolve differently.
What does a prediction-market price mean?
A contract price is not a guarantee of an outcome. Kalshi Pro’s glossary describes a market as one tradable outcome within an event: it settles at $1.0000 if its stated condition is true and $0.0000 if false. A 63¢ YES price is a $0.6300 contract price before fees and can be read as a market-implied probability, not certainty. Read the market’s settlement rules to see exactly what must happen for a YES or NO contract to pay out. Kalshi Pro glossary (updated September 4, 2026).
What fees do prediction markets charge?
Fees depend on the venue, market category, contract price, quantity, and whether your trade is treated as a maker or taker order. A taker order executes against available resting orders; a maker order rests in the book. Do not assume one advertised or remembered rate applies to every market.
Polymarket: category-based taker fees
Polymarket’s Help Center article “Trading Fees,” dated July 10, 2026, says taker fees apply on certain markets and makers are not charged. It gives the formula fee = C × feeRate × p × (1 − p), where C is shares traded and p is the share price. Its listed category rates are:
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| Market category | Listed taker fee rate |
|---|---|
| Crypto | 0.07 |
| Sports | 0.05 |
| Finance | 0.04 |
| Politics | 0.04 |
| Economics | 0.05 |
| Culture | 0.05 |
| Weather | 0.05 |
| Other/general | 0.05 |
| Mentions | 0.04 |
| Tech | 0.04 |
| Geopolitics | 0 |
These are the rates listed in that dated article, not a guarantee that a particular market has the same treatment now. Polymarket says geopolitical and world-event markets are fee-free and describes fee-funded maker rebates with category-specific percentages. It also says it charges no deposit or withdrawal fee, though intermediaries may charge. Check the current fee information and the market’s displayed terms before trading. Polymarket Help Center: Trading Fees.
The price factor p × (1 − p) means the formula’s fee is price-sensitive; a rate by itself does not tell you the fee for a particular trade. Work it out for the intended quantity and price, then account separately for spread and execution through the book.
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Kalshi: verify the current schedule
A CFTC-hosted research paper reports Kalshi maker and taker formulas of 0.0175 × c × p(1 − p) and 0.07 × c × p(1 − p), respectively. These are formulas reported by that paper, not a verified current Kalshi fee schedule. Check Kalshi’s current fee information and the applicable market display rather than using the paper’s figures as a live quote. CFTC-hosted research and materials.
How do I check liquidity on a prediction market?
Use the live order book, not just a market’s headline volume or last-traded price. The book shows resting offers to buy and sell, along with quantities at different prices. Kalshi Pro defines the best bid as the highest resting buy offer and the best ask as the lowest resting sell offer. The difference is the quoted spread.
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- Check the best bid and ask. Their gap is the visible spread at that moment.
- Look at quantities across several price levels. The top quote alone does not show how much can trade near that price.
- Compare depth with your order size. An order larger than the available quantity at the best price may execute at worse prices farther down the book.
- Recheck the book before submitting. Prices and quantities can change, so a quote is not a promise of execution.
A market can show substantial activity and still have too little depth at the prices you want for your order size. The available material establishes no universal volume or depth threshold that guarantees good execution.
What does the spread mean before I trade?
The spread is the difference between the best ask and best bid. For a buyer, paying the ask rather than receiving the bid when selling shows the immediate gap between the two quoted sides. It is distinct from the platform fee: a trade can have a fee, a spread cost, both, or neither depending on venue rules and how the order executes.
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A narrow spread at the top of the book does not establish that a large order will fill entirely at that price. Check the quantities at each level and estimate the average price across the amount you intend to trade.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why might my order fill at a different price?
An order that executes immediately can consume several price levels. If the best ask only has enough quantity for part of a buy order, the rest may fill at higher asks; a sell order can similarly reach lower bids. The resulting average fill can therefore be worse than the best quote you saw. The same issue can arise if the book changes before your order reaches it.
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Limit orders and immediate execution
A limit order sets the highest price you will pay to buy or the lowest price you will accept to sell. It can rest in the book, but it may not fill. An order intended to execute immediately prioritizes a fill and can consume available depth. Check how your venue classifies the order for fee purposes: resting orders may receive different maker treatment from trades that take liquidity.
How to estimate the full cost before trading
- Confirm the contract. Read the exact event wording, cutoff, settlement source, and condition that determines whether the contract pays out.
- Check the current fee treatment. Identify the market category, price, quantity, and maker or taker status that apply to your order.
- Inspect the live book. Record the best bid and ask, then review quantities at nearby levels.
- Estimate execution at your intended size. Consider whether the order will fill at one level or move through the book; estimate the average execution price, not just the top quote.
- Include the exit. If you may close the position before settlement, check the likely spread, depth, and fees for that trade too.
- Compare equivalent choices only. For another venue or contract, verify matching settlement conditions and current availability for your jurisdiction before comparing prices.
There is no single fee-and-liquidity figure that works for every prediction-market trade. A useful estimate is specific to the venue, market category, order type, quantity, and live book at the time you place the order.
How to compare two venues or orders fairly
| What to compare | What to inspect | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Contract equivalence | Event wording, cutoff, settlement source, and condition | Similar headlines may resolve under different rules. |
| Fee | Current schedule for the category, price, quantity, and maker/taker status | Fees can vary by category and price. |
| Quoted spread | Best bid and ask at the same time | The gap is an immediate visible trading cost. |
| Depth | Available quantity at each price level near the quote | A larger order may receive a worse average price. |
| Order type | Resting limit order or immediate execution | A limit controls price but may not fill; immediate execution can consume depth. |
| Exit cost | Spread, depth, and fees for closing early | Entry costs alone omit the cost of changing or closing a position. |
| Availability | Venue access and market eligibility where you live | Access can depend on jurisdiction and time; verify current venue terms. |
A displayed price gap between venues is not automatically an arbitrage opportunity. First establish that settlement rules match and that both sides can actually be filled at your intended size after fees. A price difference alone does not establish a risk-free trade.
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