The main Perth forecast for 2025 was not a prediction of falling prices. On 17 January 2025, the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia (REIWA) forecast that Greater Perth median sale prices for houses and units would rise by 5–10%, at a slower pace than in 2024. REIWA later raised its expectations, and in January 2026 reported that both categories had finished 2025 above their early-year forecasts.
Was there a grim forecast for Perth property prices in 2025?
Not in REIWA’s 17 January 2025 outlook. It projected continued growth in Greater Perth median sale prices, not a broad market decline. The caution was that growth would slow after a sharp 2024: REIWA forecast a 5–10% rise in both house and unit medians during 2025, compared with reported 2024 increases of 24.2% for houses and 21.4% for units. REIWA’s January 2025 forecast set out that outlook.
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Those figures describe median sale prices across Greater Perth, not the value or likely performance of every property. A median can move differently from individual homes, and later REIWA updates noted variation between suburbs, including some with falling house medians.
How the forecast changed during 2025
REIWA revised its expectations as the year unfolded. Its figures below are Greater Perth preliminary quarterly medians and forecasts as stated in the dated updates; they are not a single, unchanged prediction.
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| Update | House outlook and median | Unit outlook and median |
|---|---|---|
| 17 January 2025 | Forecast 5–10% growth for 2025. The reported December 2024 median was $745,000, up from $600,000 at end-2023. | Forecast 5–10% growth for 2025. The reported December 2024 median was $500,000, up from $412,000 at end-2023. |
| 15 April 2025 | Tracking toward 10% annual growth; preliminary March-quarter median: $770,000. | Tracking above 10% annual growth; preliminary March-quarter median: $520,000. |
| 17 July 2025 | About 10% growth expected for the year; preliminary June-quarter median: $786,000. | About 15% growth expected for the year; preliminary June-quarter median: $540,000. |
| 22 October 2025 | REIWA expected at least another 2% growth by December; September-quarter median: $810,000. | REIWA expected about 15% annual growth by December; September-quarter median: $565,000. |
| 27 January 2026 retrospective | REIWA reported 2025 growth of 13.3%, from $750,000 at end-2024 to $850,000 in December 2025. | REIWA reported 2025 growth of 20.0%, from $500,000 at end-2024 to $600,000 in December 2025. |
Sources for the dated forecasts and results: REIWA, 17 January 2025; REIWA, 15 April 2025; REIWA, 17 July 2025; REIWA, 22 October 2025; and REIWA, 27 January 2026.
The retrospective figures exceeded the January house forecast’s 5–10% range and the October targets of about 10% for houses and 15% for units. REIWA President Suzanne Brown said in October that growth had “largely followed REIWA forecasts made at the beginning of the year.” That was REIWA’s own assessment of its forecast, not an independent evaluation.
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Why REIWA expected prices to rise—and what could have slowed them
In January, REIWA cited population growth, low unemployment, a strong Western Australian economy and continuing demand for established housing as factors supporting prices. It also identified elections and uncertainty about interest-rate cuts as possible influences on activity. These were attributed explanations and expectations, not proof that any one factor caused the price movements.
By April, REIWA said trade uncertainty linked to US tariffs could weaken employment confidence and affect buying or selling behaviour. It also noted that rate cuts could increase borrowing capacity and support demand. Its January 2026 review pointed to a significant imbalance between demand and constrained supply, while also identifying affordability and interest rates as factors that could alter activity. These considerations help explain why forecasts can change; they do not establish a guaranteed direction for future prices.
How to read the forecast—and what it means for buyers
If you compare property forecasts, check that they refer to the same period, geography, property category and price measure. REIWA’s figures here are Greater Perth median sale prices. Its unit category includes villas, townhouses, home units and apartments. A sale-price median is not interchangeable with another provider’s dwelling-value index, and a Perth-wide figure cannot tell you what will happen in a particular suburb or to a particular home.
For a first-home buyer, the 2025 forecast cannot answer whether buying immediately or waiting is the better personal decision. The final reported increase does not guarantee future growth, and a market-wide median does not account for your budget, borrowing capacity, property condition or local prices. Treat a forecast as one input, then assess the specific property and your finances rather than assuming that a city-wide trend applies to every purchase.
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How REIWA’s view compared with a national forecast
KPMG’s January 2025 outlook forecast Australian national house prices to rise 3.3% in 2025 and said Perth was expected to have the strongest house-price growth among capital cities, citing steady mining-sector performance and government capital expenditure. That was a separate, contemporaneous outlook with national framing; it should not be compared directly with REIWA’s Greater Perth median-sale-price series. See KPMG’s January 2025 Residential Property Market Outlook.
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