The forecast that Western Australia would be short about 22,000 homes was a 2022 projection, not a current estimate. REIWA’s calculation, reported by PerthNow on 25 May 2022, compared 78,000 homes needed over the next four years with 56,000 expected to be built at the construction rate then reported. The forecast period has passed. The figure should be read as a dated warning about WA’s housing supply—not as a measure of today’s Perth-only shortage.
Where the 22,000-home figure came from
In its 25 May 2022 report, PerthNow attributed the estimate to REIWA: WA would need 78,000 homes over four years, while the construction rate at the time was expected to deliver 56,000. The gap was about 22,000. REIWA also described an existing shortfall of about 8,000 homes.
The headline referred to Perth, but the underlying 22,000 estimate was for Western Australia as a whole. It was a projection based on the assumptions and construction outlook available in 2022. Its four-year horizon began then and has elapsed, so it cannot establish the size of a current deficit.
What the latest official construction indicators show
The Government of Western Australia’s July 2026 release, citing Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data, reports activity through the March quarter of 2026. These figures describe different stages of construction and should not be treated as interchangeable counts of homes available to live in.
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| Measure | Reported figure | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Dwelling commencements | 24,223 in the year to March 2026; up 15.2% year on year | Homes whose construction began during that year. |
| Dwellings under construction | 26,741 in the March quarter 2026 | Homes in the construction pipeline, not completed homes. |
| Dwelling completions | 5,052 in the March quarter 2026; up 10.8% on the previous quarter | Homes finished during that quarter. |
| Homes built since September 2024 | More than 37,300, or 82.6% of WA’s pro-rata National Housing Accord target over that period | A government-reported cumulative delivery figure against a target; not a measure of the remaining shortage. |
The figures and their attribution appear in the WA Government’s July 2026 release. The government says the rise in commencements is expected to lead to higher completions in coming quarters. That is its expectation, not a guarantee about how quickly projects will finish or homes will reach the market.
Approvals and funding are not completed homes
The 2026–27 WA State Budget housing page reports 25,050 homes approved over the year to February 2026. An approval is permission to proceed, not evidence that construction has started or the home has been completed.
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The budget also announces $4.7 billion in housing investment for the budget and more than $10.8 billion in additional housing investment since 2021. It lists $1.3 billion for land development, including DevelopmentWA and enabling power and water infrastructure, alongside social and affordable housing initiatives, first-home-buyer support, construction workforce programs, and regional housing. These are investment and program figures; they do not mean that an equivalent number of homes has already been delivered.
Do the newer figures show the crisis is over?
No single figure here answers that question. The recent government release documents substantial building activity and a rise in starts, but starts, approvals and construction in progress do not measure completed, available housing. Nor do these counts by themselves establish whether supply has caught up with household demand, where homes are located, or whether prices and rents have become affordable.
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Political claims about annual completions also need to be kept separate from the quarterly indicators. An Opposition Alliance WA release published on 8 October 2026 says 19,569 dwellings were completed in 2025–26, compared with 32,556 in 2015–16, attributing the figures to ABS. Those figures and the opposition’s interpretation should be checked against the underlying ABS series before being used as a definitive comparison. They cover annual periods, unlike the government’s March-quarter figures, so they do not directly contradict the latter.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read the next housing-supply claim
Before comparing a new estimate with the 2022 forecast, check what it actually counts:
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- Geography: Perth, metropolitan Perth or all of WA?
- Period: A forecast and its horizon, or an observed count for a completed quarter or financial year?
- Construction stage: Approvals, commencements, homes under construction or completions?
- Method: An observed ABS count, an industry estimate, a government target or an announced program?
- Demand assumptions: Does the estimate account for population growth, household formation and demolitions?
The available figures do not form a harmonized series across all these measures. A like-for-like comparison needs matching geography, time period, construction stage and assumptions.
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