No. Pakistan’s State Bank kept its policy rate at 11.5% on June 15, 2026, so it had not fallen below 10% by the June deadline lawmakers had hoped for. The forecast was a political hope, not an SBP commitment; the latest decision covered here, on Sept. 14, also left the rate at 11.5%.
What lawmakers hoped for in February
On Feb. 2, 2026, ProPakistani reported that members of the Senate Standing Committee on Commerce hoped the policy rate could fall to single digits by June. Federal Minister for Commerce Jam Kamal Khan briefed the committee and argued that high interest rates were limiting business activity and access to formal financing.
The report attributed two figures to Khan: nearly 95% of Pakistan’s business class lacked access to formal financing, and returns of around 18.1% encouraged investors to keep funds in banks rather than invest in productive sectors. These are the minister’s reported claims, not independently verified statistics in the report. ProPakistani’s Feb. 2 report
What happened to the policy rate
| Decision date | Prior rate | Announced rate | Effective date or outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 9, 2026 | Not stated in the cited SBP decision | 10.5% | Rate held at 10.5% |
| April 27, 2026 | 10.5% | 11.5% | Increase effective April 28 |
| June 15, 2026 | 11.5% | 11.5% | Held at 11.5%; not below 10% by the hoped-for deadline |
| Sept. 14, 2026 | 11.5% | 11.5% | Held at 11.5%; latest decision covered here |
The official decisions show no steady decline toward single digits: the rate remained at 10.5% in March, rose in April, and was held at 11.5% in June and September. See the March 9 and April 27 SBP announcements, the June 15 decision, and the Sept. 14 decision.
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Why lawmakers’ hopes are not an SBP decision
The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), not a parliamentary committee, decides the policy rate. SBP says its primary objective is domestic price stability; its monetary-policy page reproduces Section 4B of the SBP Act 1956, as amended up to January 2022: “The primary objective of the Bank shall be to achieve and maintain domestic price stability”. The policy rate operates within an interest rate corridor. SBP monetary policy
That distinction matters for borrowers and savers. A policy rate is a central-bank instrument; it is not the rate every bank charges on loans or pays on deposits. Commercial rates can differ, and a committee member’s forecast does not bind the MPC.
What SBP’s inflation outlook did—and did not—say
In its February 2026 Monetary Policy Report, SBP projected inflation would remain within its 5–7% target range during most of FY26 and FY27. It also identified risks including global tariff uncertainty, volatile commodity prices, fiscal challenges and climate effects. Those were dated projections and risk assessments, not a promise that the policy rate would fall or reach a particular level. SBP Monetary Policy Report, February 2026
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the missed deadline means for readers
The single-digit forecast did not materialize by June 2026: the policy rate remained at 11.5% on June 15, and the September decision kept it there. Anyone assessing borrowing or savings costs should check their bank’s current product rate and terms rather than treating the policy rate as a direct quote for a personal loan, mortgage, deposit or business facility.
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