The State Bank of Pakistan’s 3.25–4.25% real GDP growth projection was its 2025 forecast for FY2025–26—not the latest forecast or the final result. SBP raised its forecast to 3.75–4.75% in February 2026. In May, Pakistan’s National Accounts Committee reported provisional annual growth of 3.70%.
Pakistan’s growth forecast and reported result
The figures describe different stages of the outlook. SBP’s first range was a forecast; its later range revised that forecast; and the 3.70% figure is a provisional annual estimate reported by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) through the National Accounts Committee.
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| Figure | Publisher and date | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| 3.25–4.25% | State Bank of Pakistan, 2025 | Real GDP growth forecast for FY2025–26, published in SBP’s FY2025 annual report and August 2025 Monetary Policy Report. The annual report lists a 4.2% official target alongside the projection. |
| 3.75–4.75% | State Bank of Pakistan, February 2026 | Revised real GDP growth forecast for FY2025–26; SBP said the range was 0.5 percentage points higher than in its previous report. |
| 3.70% | Pakistan Bureau of Statistics / National Accounts Committee, May 2026 | Provisional annual GDP growth estimate for FY2025–26, not a forecast or a final figure. |
SBP’s original 2025 projection appears in its FY2025 annual report and August 2025 Monetary Policy Report. The updated forecast is in SBP’s February 2026 Monetary Policy Report. The annual estimate was announced by the National Accounts Committee.
Why SBP revised its forecast
In February 2026, SBP associated its improved outlook with stronger year-over-year growth in the first quarter, continued momentum in high-frequency indicators, and improving production in agriculture and industry. It expected positive spillovers to services. These were reasons for the revised outlook, not proof that any one factor determined the eventual annual estimate.
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SBP also identified risks: tariff-related uncertainty, volatile global commodity prices, export headwinds, difficulty meeting the primary-balance surplus target, and climate-related vulnerability. Its earlier August 2025 outlook had expected activity to gain traction as prior policy-rate reductions took effect, while flagging international commodity-price volatility, global trade uncertainty, and possible changes in administered domestic energy prices. Forecasts are conditional on such conditions and risks.
How to read the quarterly growth figures
PBS/NAC reported growth rates of 3.92% for Q1, 4.05% for Q2, and 3.99% for Q3 of FY2025–26. Q1 and Q2 were updated figures; Q3 was provisional. These quarterly rates are not interchangeable with the 3.70% provisional annual estimate. In particular, Q3’s provisional rate should not be presented as the full-year growth result. The quarterly figures are in the National Accounts Committee release.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What remains provisional
The 3.70% figure is explicitly provisional, so it should not be described as Pakistan’s final FY2025–26 growth rate. The annual estimate and the forecasts answer different questions: the forecasts show what SBP expected at particular points in time, while the provisional estimate is the reported annual outcome subject to revision. The official release calendar placed SBP’s FY2026 annual economy report after the relevant reporting cutoff; it is listed in the SBP annual reports archive.
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