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What does 42.4% measure?
In its 2025 Macro Poverty Outlook, the World Bank projected that 42.4% of Pakistan’s population would fall below the $3.65-per-person-per-day lower-middle-income poverty line in FY25. The figure is a forecast based on the outlook’s model, not a count from a household survey conducted in FY25. The outlook identifies the 2018 Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) as its actual-data baseline and marks 2025–27 as forecast years. [World Bank FY25 outlook]
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That threshold is an international measure expressed in 2017 PPP dollars. It is not Pakistan’s national poverty line, which is designed for domestic policy analysis. The World Bank says national and international poverty lines have different purposes and are calculated using fundamentally different methodologies. [World Bank Development Update Q&A]
Why is 42.4% different from other World Bank figures?
The percentages refer to different poverty lines, periods, estimation methods, and publication vintages. They are not interchangeable estimates of one identical measure.
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| Figure | What it measures | Period and status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42.4% | Below $3.65/day in 2017 PPPs | FY25 forecast in the 2025 outlook | World Bank FY25 outlook |
| 22.2% | Modeled national poverty rate | FY25 estimate in the October 2025 Development Update Q&A; the Bank cautioned that model estimates lack the statistical precision of survey-based figures | World Bank Development Update Q&A |
| 22.5% | Estimated national poverty rate | FY25 estimate on the country page, last updated November 19, 2025 | World Bank Pakistan country page |
| 28.9% | At Pakistan’s national poverty line | 2024 figure reported in the October 2026 Poverty & Equity Brief | World Bank Poverty & Equity Brief |
| 23.0% | Below $3.00/day in 2021 PPPs | 2024 figure reported in the October 2026 brief | World Bank Poverty & Equity Brief |
The newer national-line estimates do not revise the 42.4% figure into a national rate: they use a different threshold and, in some cases, a different method or data vintage. The World Bank’s October 2026 brief reports that the national poverty rate rose from 22% in 2018–19 to 29% in 2024–25. It also reports 28.9% at the national line in 2024; those figures have different stated reference periods and should be attributed as published, not treated as identical. [World Bank Poverty & Equity Brief]
The poverty line changed in 2025
In June 2025, the World Bank updated its international poverty lines using 2021 PPPs. The revised lower-middle-income threshold is $4.20 per person per day. [World Bank international poverty lines update]
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That update does not mean the 42.4% forecast was calculated at $4.20 a day. It was published under the older $3.65/day line in 2017 PPPs. A rate can change when the poverty threshold or PPP base changes, even when the country and reference period are the same, so the threshold and PPP year need to accompany any percentage. [World Bank FY25 outlook] [World Bank international poverty lines update]
Which figure answers “What is Pakistan’s poverty rate in 2025?”
There is no single answer unless “poverty rate” is tied to a specific poverty line and source. For the headline’s 42.4%, the precise description is: the World Bank’s 2025 outlook forecast that 42.4% of Pakistan’s population would be below the $3.65/day international line in 2017 PPPs in FY25. It is not the national-line rate.
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For a national-line FY25 estimate, the World Bank country page published 22.5%, while its October 2025 Development Update Q&A gave a modeled estimate of 22.2% and warned that modeled figures are less statistically precise than survey-based results. Attribute each to its publication rather than combining them into a new figure. [World Bank Pakistan country page] [World Bank Development Update Q&A]
Data vintage matters too. In September 2025, the World Bank said the latest survey round available to it was 2018–19 and that later estimates were generated using microsimulation while it awaited HIES 2024–25 data. Its October 2026 brief subsequently reported HIES 2024 data. That newer survey-linked reporting provides later context, but it does not make the distinct FY25 forecast and national estimates the same measure. [World Bank September 2025 release] [World Bank Poverty & Equity Brief]
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to compare poverty-rate claims
Before comparing two percentages, check the details attached to each:
- Poverty line: Is it Pakistan’s national line or an international threshold?
- Threshold and PPP year: For example, $3.65/day in 2017 PPPs versus $4.20/day in 2021 PPPs.
- Reference period: Is the figure for a calendar year, fiscal year, or survey period?
- Method: Is it survey-based, modeled, a microsimulation estimate, or a forecast?
- Publication vintage: Which World Bank release reported it, and when?
For domestic policy questions, the national poverty line is the more relevant measure; international lines are mainly useful for comparisons across countries. Neither percentage can be interpreted accurately without its definition and source. [World Bank Development Update Q&A] [World Bank international poverty lines update]
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