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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchPakistan’s national consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.46% year over year in May 2025, above the Finance Ministry’s forecast of 1.5%–2%. But the index fell 0.17% from April. Those figures describe different comparisons: annual inflation measures the change from May 2024, while the monthly figure compares May with April 2025.
What Pakistan’s May 2025 inflation figures show
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported 3.46% year-over-year inflation for the national CPI in May 2025, using the 2015–16 base year. The PBS monthly review and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported the figure rounded to 3.5%. The Finance Ministry’s forecast, as reported by Reuters, was 1.5%–2%, so the actual rate was about 1.5–2 percentage points higher than expected when compared with the rounded 3.5% figure.
The annual rate had been 0.3% in April 2025 and 11.8% in May 2024. These are year-over-year rates for those months, not monthly changes in the price index. PBS’s May release, its monthly review, and the SBP inflation monitor provide the official figures and rounded reporting values.
Why annual inflation rose while prices fell month to month
The annual rate compares the CPI in May 2025 with the CPI in May 2024. The month-over-month rate compares the May 2025 index with April 2025. Because the comparison periods differ, the annual inflation rate can increase even when the index falls in the latest month.
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In its release, PBS recorded a 0.17% decline in the national CPI from April to May 2025. Urban CPI rose 0.07% month over month, while rural CPI fell 0.53%. The PBS monthly review and SBP round the national monthly decline to 0.2%.
Reuters reported a different monthly decline of 0.3% in its coverage. For the official national monthly figure, PBS’s precise release value is -0.17%; the news report’s number should not be attributed to PBS.
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What may have driven the year-over-year uptick
Reuters quoted Adnan Sheikh, deputy head of research at Pak Kuwait Investment Company, saying: “We’re witnessing the base effect fading, that’s why there was an uptick in CPI year-on-year”. This is an analyst’s interpretation of the change in the annual rate, not a PBS finding or proof that it was the only factor. A base effect occurs when the prior-year comparison period changes the size of the year-over-year percentage change.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.National, urban, rural and core inflation are different measures
The headline national CPI is not the only inflation measure. PBS reports separate national, urban and rural series. The SBP monitor rounded May 2025 year-over-year headline inflation to 3.5% for urban areas and 3.4% for rural areas, alongside the 3.5% national figure.
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Core inflation excludes selected volatile items and should not be read as interchangeable with headline CPI. For May 2025, the SBP monitor reported non-food, non-energy core inflation of 7.3% year over year in urban areas and 8.8% in rural areas—higher than the rounded headline rates. Those core figures provide a different view of price changes, not a revision to the headline CPI result.
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