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The October 12, 2023 USDA WASDE report did not boost U.S. corn production or ending stocks compared with September. It lowered the 2023/24 production forecast to 15.064 billion bushels and reduced the ending-stocks forecast by 110 million bushels. USDA’s companion Feed Outlook gives the more precise stocks reduction—109.8 million bushels—and a revised ending-stocks estimate of 2.11 billion bushels. These were forecasts made in October 2023, not final harvest results or current estimates.
What changed in the October 2023 corn outlook?
WASDE-641, published October 12, 2023, projected less U.S. corn production and fewer ending stocks for the 2023/24 marketing year than the September report. USDA described the outlook as having reduced supplies, lower feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. The WASDE report put production at 15.064 billion bushels, down about 70 million from the previous month, and projected total supplies of 16.451 billion bushels, down 160 million.
WASDE rounded the ending-stocks reduction to 110 million bushels. USDA Economic Research Service’s October Feed Outlook reported a 109.8-million-bushel reduction, leaving projected ending stocks at 2.11 billion bushels. These figures describe USDA’s October forecast for 2023/24; they should not be read as an account of what the crop ultimately produced.
Why did USDA lower the forecasts?
A lower yield forecast reduced expected production
The Feed Outlook said USDA lowered its expected yield by 0.8 bushel per acre, to 173 bushels. Harvested acreage remained at 87.1 million acres. With acreage unchanged in that October outlook, the lower yield forecast was the stated crop-year factor behind reduced production.
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Lower beginning stocks also tightened supplies
USDA’s companion explanation said September Grain Stocks information reduced the estimate of beginning stocks. NASS had reported 1.36 billion bushels of old-crop corn stocks on September 1, 2023, down 1% from a year earlier. Lower beginning stocks, combined with the lower production forecast, brought projected total supplies down by 160 million bushels from September.
How should the October figures be read?
The estimates cover U.S. corn in the 2023/24 marketing year and come from different USDA publications that present figures at different levels of precision. WASDE reported production as 15.064 billion bushels; NASS’s October 12 Crop Production release rounded its forecast to 15.1 billion. NASS described production as down less than 1% from September and up 10% from 2022, with expected yield of 173.0 bushels per harvested acre. The rounded NASS figure is consistent with, but less precise than, the WASDE figure.
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USDA also raised its projected season-average price received by producers by 5 cents, to $4.95 per bushel. That was a forecast for the 2023/24 marketing year, not a realized price. Production, supplies, use, ending stocks, and price are separate parts of the balance-sheet outlook; a revision to one should not be mistaken for an increase in another.
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USDA source documents
- USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, October 2023 (WASDE-641)
- USDA Economic Research Service, Feed Outlook: October 2023
- USDA NASS, Crop Production, October 12, 2023
- USDA NASS, Grain Stocks, September 2023
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