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Re:

November 2024 Soybeans Fell 32¼¢ for the Week Ending October 11

November 2024 soybean futures settled at $10.05½ per bushel on October 11, 2024, down 9¼ cents for Friday and 32¼ cents for the week.
From TheFinanceBase Team2 min to read
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November 2024 soybean futures settled at $10.05½ per bushel on Friday, October 11, down 9¼ cents that session and 32¼ cents over the week. The weekly loss was larger than Friday’s move; the two figures describe different periods.

Where November soybeans closed

Pro Farmer reported that the November 2024 soybean contract settled at $10.05½ per bushel on October 11, 2024. It lost 9¼ cents on Friday and 32¼ cents over the week ending that day. These are historical futures-market figures, not a current price or forecast. Pro Farmer’s October 11 market report gives the close and both changes.

What was happening across the soy complex

Soybean meal and soybean oil are separate contracts, so their quoted prices should not be read as soybean-futures prices. On October 11, December soybean meal closed $1.00 lower at $315.10 and was down $15.40 for the week. December soybean oil fell 43 points to 43.33 cents and was down 64 points week over week, according to Pro Farmer.

Why the market was under pressure that week

Pro Farmer reported that corrective strength in the soy complex was negated after USDA released updated production, supply and demand estimates. The agency’s 2024/25 yield estimate was trimmed by 0.1 bushel per acre from September and production by 4 million bushels, but production was still estimated at a record 4.582 billion bushels.

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Projected ending stocks remained unchanged from September at 550 million bushels. Pro Farmer said residual use was reduced by 2 million bushels while exports and crush were unchanged. Farm Progress reported that the production cut was smaller than the average trade expectation. These were contemporaneous explanations and market context; they do not establish that the USDA update alone caused the entire weekly decline. The estimates are reported in Pro Farmer’s coverage and Farm Progress’s same-day WASDE coverage.

Farm Progress also reported USDA’s 2024/25 season-average soybean farm-price estimate at $10.80 per bushel, unchanged from September. That projected farm price is not the same measure as the November futures contract’s $10.05½ close.

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Harvest and the October 2024 outlook

As of October 6, 2024, U.S. soybean harvest was 47% complete, according to the USDA figure cited by Pro Farmer. In its October 11 outlook, Pro Farmer said traders would continue weighing the USDA data and noted technical pressure. It identified U.S. and South American weather as a focus for the coming month at that time, along with U.S. exports, Chinese stimulus, the November 2024 election and dollar strength.

That outlook was specific to October 2024, not a present-day forecast. Pro Farmer reported that dry Midwest conditions could let harvest proceed and that Brazil was expected to receive needed moisture after hot, dry conditions. It quoted World Weather Inc. as saying: “The forecaster notes greater rainfall in the Oct. 19-25 period will be more helpful in raising topsoil moisture after this week’s sporadic rainfall.”

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