The 161.627 million bushels in the headline was a Reuters survey forecast for NOPA-member soybean processing in September 2022—not the final result. Reuters reported an eight-analyst average ahead of NOPA’s October report. Later Reuters coverage put the actual September crush at 158.109 million bushels, so the forecast September record was not reached.
What the 161.627 million-bushel figure represented
In a report published October 14, 2022, Reuters said eight analysts expected NOPA members to have crushed an average of 161.627 million bushels of soybeans during September. NOPA’s monthly crush report had not yet been released, making this an estimate rather than a reported result. Reuters described NOPA members at the time as handling about 95% of U.S. soybean processing. Reuters, October 14, 2022
The forecast was 2.4% below the 165.538 million bushels reported for August 2022, but 5.1% above the 153.800 million bushels reported for September 2021. Those comparisons describe the forecast against earlier reported monthly volumes; they do not mean September’s final figure was already known.
How the forecast compared with a possible September record
If realized, 161.627 million bushels would have edged past the prior September high of 161.491 million bushels, recorded in September 2020. The analysts’ estimates ranged from 152.000 million to 170.400 million bushels, with a median of 162.108 million. The range shows substantial variation among the eight estimates, and the record claim was conditional on the forecast proving accurate.
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It did not: later Reuters coverage reported an actual September 2022 NOPA-member crush of 158.109 million bushels, 3.518 million below the survey average. That result was also below the September 2020 figure Reuters had identified as the prior record. Reuters historical coverage, 2023
Monthly volume and daily pace are different measures
The forecast implied a September processing rate of 5.388 million bushels per day, compared with 5.340 million per day in August. Reuters called the August pace an 11-month low and attributed the expected September pickup to processors ramping up as newly harvested soybeans arrived. A higher daily pace did not necessarily mean a higher monthly total: September’s forecast volume was lower than August’s because the monthly figure also reflects the number of operating days.
The related soyoil-stocks estimate
The same Reuters report summarized a separate survey of six analysts on NOPA-member soyoil inventories at September 30, 2022. Their average forecast was 1.522 billion pounds, compared with 1.565 billion pounds at the end of August and 1.684 billion at the end of September 2021. Those were declines of 2.7% month over month and 9.6% year over year, respectively.
Analysts’ soyoil-stock estimates ranged from 1.475 billion to 1.600 billion pounds, with a median of 1.511 billion. These were forecasts, not verified final stock figures; the figures available here do not establish the final September 2022 NOPA soyoil-stock result.
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What NOPA’s monthly report covers
NOPA’s current description says its monthly report covers soybean crush and oil stocks, soybean-meal production, yield and exports, and soybean-oil production and yield, with current-month, previous-month and year-earlier comparisons that include regional data. NOPA currently says the report draws on 20 member companies accounting for 99% of U.S. soybean crush. That is the association’s current description, not the membership-coverage figure Reuters used for the 2022 forecast. National Oilseed Processors Association: NOPA Crush Report
NOPA identifies Refinitiv as the report’s sole distributor. Its current webpage lists a US $1,200 price for a 12-month subscription and advises subscribing 24 hours before publication to receive that month’s report. The page’s price and publication schedule describe current access information; they should not be treated as 2022 terms.
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The figure was an industry-processing estimate, not a measure of household spending or a direct explanation for soybean, meal or oil prices. The survey indicates what analysts expected NOPA-member plants to process before the monthly release; it cannot, by itself, establish what caused market prices or processor margins to move. For the historical September 2022 figure, the key distinction is forecast versus actual: 161.627 million bushels was the estimate, while later Reuters coverage reported 158.109 million.
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