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Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Nomura’s reported view is that cement makers need to sustain pricing to protect margins as fuel costs remain elevated—but the available October 6, 2026 report does not attribute a specific ₹12–15-per-bag increase to Nomura. Moneycontrol reported that September trade prices rose about ₹10 per bag month on month and dealers expected a further increase of about ₹10 in October. Nomura’s reported top picks were UltraTech Cement and Dalmia Bharat, both rated Buy.
What Nomura’s reported October update says
Moneycontrol’s October 6, 2026 coverage of Nomura’s cement-sector research describes a market trying to pass higher costs through to customers. The reported channel checks put the September pan-India average trade-price increase at around ₹10 per bag month on month. Dealers expected another increase of around ₹10 in October, but the report says the push was largely company-led and warned that weak demand could make further rises difficult to absorb.
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Nomura’s reported assessment was that “sustained margins will depend more on the industry’s ability to maintain pricing than on further easing in input costs.” That is a statement about the importance of pricing power, not a verified estimate that a ₹12–15-per-bag hike is required.
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Fuel is a major input for cement production, so higher fuel prices can squeeze the difference between what producers receive for cement and what it costs to make and deliver. In the figures attributed to Nomura by Moneycontrol, average imported fuel costs in 2QFY27 rose 1% quarter on quarter and remained more than 15% above 4QFY26. Thermal-coal prices and retail diesel prices were reported to have increased 2% and 4%, respectively, late in 2QFY27.
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Nomura’s reported average cement spread for 2QFY27 was ₹2,449 per tonne, down ₹62 per tonne quarter on quarter. The reported spread measures the gap between cement realization and costs; it is not a company’s net profit or a guaranteed indicator of future earnings. Fuel-cost-lagged spreads were also lower than the 1QFY27 average: by ₹106 per tonne on a 60-day lag and ₹250 per tonne on a 90-day lag.
Where the ₹12–15-per-bag figure comes from
The available reports do not establish ₹12–15 per bag as a Nomura figure. They report different October expectations from other brokerages, with separate dates and attributions:
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| Brokerage and report | Reported figure | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| Nomura, as reported by Moneycontrol on October 6, 2026 | About ₹10 per bag in September; dealers expected about ₹10 more in October | Channel-check price movements and dealer expectations, not a ₹12–15 Nomura target |
| Elara Capital, as reported by ETEnergyWorld on September 30, 2026 | ₹5–15 per bag | Planned early-October increase; Elara also reported petcoke prices up 19% in the preceding month |
| Centrum Broking, as reported by The Economic Times/ANI on September 29, 2026 | ₹5–20 per bag | Possible October increase, with sustainability dependent on demand and dealer acceptance |
These figures describe expectations or planned increases, not proof that customers ultimately paid the full announced amount. They also should not be combined into a single brokerage consensus: the estimates came from different firms and reports.
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Price pass-through varies by region
Nomura’s reported checks showed uneven implementation. South had the strongest momentum, with indications of increases of up to ₹20 per bag. In East and North, announced ₹10 increases had not been fully reflected in effective prices, while Central India was broadly flat. A quoted increase is not the same as a realized trade price; dealer acceptance, demand, and the gap between trade and non-trade prices matter when assessing pass-through.
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The report also identified weak uptake, festivals, and monsoon-related disruption as obstacles to further increases. If demand is subdued, dealers and customers may resist price rises or delay accepting them, limiting how much of higher fuel costs producers can recover.
What the update says about UltraTech and the sector
Moneycontrol reported that Nomura named UltraTech Cement and Dalmia Bharat its top picks, with Buy ratings for both. The same report gave Nomura’s FY27 cement-volume growth forecast as 6–7%; that is a forecast, not a reported outcome. The pricing data and sector forecast provide context for the brokerage’s stance, but they do not establish that either company will achieve a particular margin or share-price return.
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For readers following Indian cement shares, the key distinction is between announced increases and realized prices. A higher selling price can help offset costs only if customers accept it and volumes hold up. Fuel-cost levels, dealer feedback, regional implementation, and subsequent company results all affect whether the intended pass-through improves margins.
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- Moneycontrol, October 6, 2026, reporting Nomura channel checks, spread and fuel-cost figures, regional pricing, the FY27 volume forecast, and top picks. The figures are brokerage estimates and channel checks as reported by the outlet, not official government statistics or the underlying Nomura note.
- ETEnergyWorld, September 30, 2026, reporting Elara Capital’s planned early-October price increase and petcoke-cost assessment.
- The Economic Times/ANI, September 29, 2026, reporting Centrum Broking’s possible October increase range and demand-related conditions.
This is market-news context, not individualized investment advice.
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