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One free scan finds every outdated or missing driver and matches the right update for your exact hardware.Free scan · exact hardware matchMortgage rate-lock volume fell 10.15% month over month and 27.25% year over year in September 2026, according to Mortgage Capital Trading (MCT). Purchase locks declined less sharply than rate-and-term refinance locks: 11.86% versus 82% year over year. The figures describe MCT’s industry index, not a census of every U.S. mortgage lock.
How much did mortgage rate-lock volume fall?
MCT’s Lock Volume Indices track residential mortgage loans locked with lenders, divided into purchase, rate-and-term refinance, and cash-out refinance activity. MCT says the data draw on a broad variety of lenders; the release does not describe the index as a count of every U.S. lock.
In its October 2026 release, MCT reported that total lock volume fell 10.15% from August to September and 27.25% compared with September 2025. Those are different comparisons: the year-over-year decline is substantially larger than the month-over-month change. MCT’s September lock-volume release provides the figures.
Did refinance locks fall more than purchase locks?
| Lock category | Change reported for September 2026 | Source and comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Purchase | Down 9.85% | MCT; month over month |
| Purchase | Down 11.86% | MCT; year over year |
| Rate-and-term refinance | Down 82% | MCT figure reported by Scotsman Guide; year over year |
The rate-and-term refinance comparison followed a period of unusually strong refinance activity, Scotsman Guide reported. That prior-year surge affects the comparison: the 82% year-over-year drop should not be read on its own as a measure of underlying borrower demand independent of the earlier high base. The cited coverage does not provide a comparable percentage for cash-out refinance locks. See Scotsman Guide’s October 6, 2026 report and MCT’s release.
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How did Treasury yields move during September?
The U.S. Treasury’s daily 10-year constant-maturity Treasury (CMT) par yield rose from 4.26% on September 1 to 5.29% on September 30, 2026—a 1.03 percentage-point increase. The figures are from the Treasury’s September 2026 daily rates table.
This Treasury yield is a market benchmark, not the mortgage rate offered to a borrower. Treasury says its CMT rates are interpolated from a daily par curve using indicative bid-side quotations obtained at or near 3:30 p.m. on trading days; they are not transaction prices. The official curve uses a monotone convex spline methodology.
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- CONFIDENTLY AND EASILY SOLVES: All your clients' financial questions whether they are buyers, sellers, investors or renters. Increase your perceived professionalism as a new agent, experienced broker or seasoned loan officer. Close more home sales and impress your clients with fast, accurate answers to all their real estate finance questions
- DEDICATED BUYER QUALIFYING KEYS: Enter client's income, debt and expenses to pre-qualify them to only show properties they can afford. Include tax, insurance and mortgage insurance then compare loan options and payment solutions to give your client choices before they make an offer to buy
- FIGURE OUT THE RIGHT LOAN: At the press of a button for jumbo, conventional, FHA/VA, or even 80:10:10 or 80:15:5 combo loans; check to see if ARMs or bi-weekly loans, quarterly payments or if interest-only payments are the answer; giving your client more choices; easily perform what if loan or tvm calculations Find loan amount, term, interest or PITI or PI payments
- BECOME AN INVALUABLE RESOURCE: Reduce your clients' confusion and uncertainty; ensuring they are able to make a purchase offer; knowing they can afford the down payment; and determining which is the right loan for them. Date-math for listings and contracts too. Comes with a protective slide cover, quick reference guide, pocket User's Guide, and long-life batteries
Why did mortgage rate locks decline?
MCT described September as a month of bond-market selling and volatility, and said rising long-term yields, inflation expectations, and geopolitical uncertainty contributed to pressure on mortgage rates. Scotsman Guide also reported MCT’s comments about Treasury supply and competition for longer-dated bonds. These are the sources’ explanations and market context, not a measured breakdown of how much each factor caused mortgage rates or lock volume to change.
MCT also said the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point at a unanimous September 16 vote, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%; the company characterized it as the first hike since 2023. That policy detail and the market framing are reported by MCT in its October 2026 release.
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- RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE FINANCE TERMS: Keys labeled in residential real estate finance terms like Loan AMT, Int, Term, PMT; Calculator is super easy to use to determine a mortgage loan that works for your client
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Andrew Rhodes, MCT’s head of trading, said: “September was a three-point selloff in UMBS6 coupons, and that pushes everything up the coupon stack.” He also said: “We’re seeing more trades in the UM7 coupon now, with rates pushed higher by market volatility, the geopolitical situation, and inflation expectations.” The remarks are MCT’s market assessment, not proof that any one factor explains the lock decline.
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- SPEAKS YOUR LANGUAGE: Keys clearly labeled in residential mortgage finance terms like Loan Amt, Int, Term, Pmt; this industry-standard calculator is super easy to use on all realty financing matters from finding a loan that works for your client to considering trust deeds investments, or finding remaining balances or balloon payments and more
- CONFIDENTLY AND EASILY SOLVE: Clients' financial questions whether they're buyers, sellers, investors or renters. Increase your perceived professionalism as a new agent, experienced broker or seasoned loan officer. Close more home sales and impress your clients with fast, accurate answers to all their real estate finance questions from PITI Payments to IRR, NPV and Cashflows
- DEDICATED BUYER QUALIFYING KEYS: Enter client's income, debt and expenses to pre-qualify them to only show properties they can afford. Include tax, insurance and mortgage insurance then compare loan options and payment solutions to give your client choices before they make an offer to buy
- FIGURE OUT THE RIGHT LOAN: For your client at the press of a button for jumbo, conventional, FHA/VA, or even 80:10:10 or 80:15:5 combo loans; check to see if ARMs or bi-weekly loans, quarterly payments or if interest-only payments are the answer; giving your client more choices; easily perform what if loan or TVM calculations find loan amount, term, interest or PITI or PI payments
- BECOME AN INVALUABLE RESOURCE: To your clients by reducing their confusion and uncertainty; ensuring they are able to make a purchase offer; knowing they can afford the down payment; and determining which is the right loan for them. Date-math for listings and contracts too. Comes with a protective slide cover, quick reference guide, pocket user's guide, and long-life battery
What the September figures do—and do not—show
- The sharpest reported year-over-year contraction was in rate-and-term refinance locks, following an unusually strong prior-year period.
- Purchase locks also declined, but their year-over-year drop was much smaller than the reported refinance decline.
- The 10-year Treasury CMT increase confirms a substantial rise in that benchmark during September; it does not establish the mortgage rate available to any particular borrower.
- MCT’s figures describe its lender-based lock index, while the Treasury series measures par yields. The two indicators are related market context, not interchangeable measures.
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