More than four in five Australians surveyed after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September 2026 rate decision expected mortgage rates to rise over the following year, according to figures attributed to the Westpac–Melbourne Institute survey. That is up from 63% a month earlier. The result records what respondents expected—not what the RBA will do next or what any particular lender will charge.
What changed in consumers’ mortgage-rate expectations?
Mortgage Professional Australia reported on 6 October 2026 that just over 80% of respondents expected variable mortgage rates to rise over the next 12 months, compared with 63% a month earlier. Among mortgage holders, the share expecting an increase was close to 90%. The report attributes these figures to the Westpac–Melbourne Institute survey. Mortgage Professional Australia’s report
The survey’s Mortgage Rate Expectations Index rose 5.5% to 179.7, close to its reported May 2026 high of 181. The index measures expected direction over the next 12 months; 179.7 is not an interest rate quoted as a percentage and does not show how much a particular borrower’s rate might change.
What does the survey say—and what does it not predict?
The percentages describe respondents’ expectations, not a probability forecast validated by the RBA. They do not establish that the RBA will raise its cash rate again, nor do they show that all lenders will change rates by the same amount. A borrower’s actual rate depends on their lender and loan, as well as any lender decision affecting that product.
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The survey was reported to cover 1,200 adults from 28 September to 1 October 2026. Because fieldwork straddled the RBA’s 30 September decision, the results include responses from both before and after it. Mortgage Professional Australia reported consumer sentiment at 86.9 before the decision and 67.2 afterward. The figures show a sharp difference between those groups, but do not by themselves establish that the rate decision alone caused it. Mortgage Professional Australia’s report on October sentiment
How the survey result differs from the RBA rate and your loan rate
| Measure | What was reported | What it tells a borrower |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer expectation | Just over 80% expected mortgage rates to rise over the next 12 months; close to 90% of mortgage holders expected a rise. Westpac–Melbourne Institute figures reported by Mortgage Professional Australia, 6 October 2026. Source | What survey respondents expected—not a guaranteed outcome or an individual rate forecast. |
| RBA cash rate | The RBA raised the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.6% on 30 September 2026, as reported by Mortgage Professional Australia. Source | The central bank’s policy rate; it is not the rate automatically charged on every home loan. |
| Westpac variable home-loan rates | Westpac announced a 0.25 percentage point increase for new and existing customers, effective 9 October 2026. Source | Westpac’s announced change for its variable home-loan rates, not a statement about every lender or product. |
| Your own mortgage rate and repayment | Set by the terms of your loan and your lender’s decisions; the survey does not provide an individual figure. | Check your lender’s notice and loan details to establish any change and its effective date. |
What does an RBA rate rise mean for your repayments?
An RBA increase does not tell you, by itself, exactly whether or when your lender will change your rate. Westpac’s announced increase is a concrete example of a lender decision: its variable home-loan rates were set to rise by 0.25 percentage points from 9 October 2026. For your own loan, check your lender’s communication and the rate and effective date that apply to your product.
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Any repayment change depends on your loan balance, remaining term, interest rate, repayment structure and the lender’s change date. Westpac’s rate-change calculator lets users enter a current or quoted rate, the change to model, loan balance and remaining term to estimate the effect on principal-and-interest repayments. Westpac rate-change calculator
Why did expectations rise?
The reported jump followed the RBA’s September decision, and the survey’s field period included responses from both before and after it. That timing is relevant, but it does not prove that the decision alone changed every respondent’s view. The available report does not provide detailed question wording or methodology, so the result should be read as a measure of reported expectations rather than a precise explanation of why each person answered as they did.
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Westpac Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting Matthew Hassan described households’ broader pressures this way: “Australian consumers remain stuck in a cost-of-living nightmare that seems to have no end in sight.” Mortgage Professional Australia attributed the statement to Hassan in its 6 October 2026 report. Mortgage Professional Australia report
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What borrowers can check now
The survey does not determine what action is right for an individual borrower. If you want to understand your exposure or compare possible options, start with your own loan details and consider these factors:
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- SPEAKS YOUR LANGUAGE: Keys clearly labeled in residential mortgage finance terms like Loan Amt, Int, Term, Pmt; this industry-standard calculator is super easy to use on all realty financing matters from finding a loan that works for your client to considering trust deeds investments, or finding remaining balances or balloon payments and more
- CONFIDENTLY AND EASILY SOLVE: Clients' financial questions whether they're buyers, sellers, investors or renters. Increase your perceived professionalism as a new agent, experienced broker or seasoned loan officer. Close more home sales and impress your clients with fast, accurate answers to all their real estate finance questions from PITI Payments to IRR, NPV and Cashflows
- DEDICATED BUYER QUALIFYING KEYS: Enter client's income, debt and expenses to pre-qualify them to only show properties they can afford. Include tax, insurance and mortgage insurance then compare loan options and payment solutions to give your client choices before they make an offer to buy
- FIGURE OUT THE RIGHT LOAN: For your client at the press of a button for jumbo, conventional, FHA/VA, or even 80:10:10 or 80:15:5 combo loans; check to see if ARMs or bi-weekly loans, quarterly payments or if interest-only payments are the answer; giving your client more choices; easily perform what if loan or TVM calculations find loan amount, term, interest or PITI or PI payments
- BECOME AN INVALUABLE RESOURCE: To your clients by reducing their confusion and uncertainty; ensuring they are able to make a purchase offer; knowing they can afford the down payment; and determining which is the right loan for them. Date-math for listings and contracts too. Comes with a protective slide cover, quick reference guide, pocket user's guide, and long-life battery
- Rate and timing: Confirm your current interest rate, whether it is variable or fixed, and when any lender change takes effect.
- Repayment estimate: Model a rate increase using your balance, remaining term and repayment structure rather than relying on a generic dollar estimate.
- Loan features and costs: When comparing loans, consider the actual interest rate and comparison rate, fees, repayment flexibility, offset or redraw features, eligibility and your time horizon.
- Possible adjustments: Westpac lists reviewing loan setup, refinancing, comparing rates, repayment frequency and offset-account features as matters borrowers may consider. These are options to investigate, not guaranteed savings or personal recommendations. Westpac calculator and guidance Westpac announcement
Westpac Chief Executive, Consumer, Carolyn McCann said: “We recognise that another rate increase will add to cost-of-living pressures for many households,” in the bank’s 30 September 2026 announcement. Westpac announcement
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