MCX gold fell to a reported intraday low of ₹1,48,850 per 10 grams on October 5, 2026, as markets watched for the Reserve Bank of India’s policy decision. A higher repo rate can weigh on gold by making interest-bearing assets relatively more attractive, but the RBI’s decision alone does not determine gold prices. The last confirmed repo rate in the available RBI policy record was 5.25% in August; that is not confirmation of the October outcome.
What happened to MCX gold on October 5?
Goodreturns reported MCX gold at ₹1,49,600 per 10 grams when its October 5, 2026, report was published, after an intraday low of ₹1,48,850. It described the fall as up to ₹1,540; its headline rounded the decline to ₹1,550. These are historical snapshots, not live prices. Goodreturns’ October 5 report gives the retail and market context.
Kotak Neo separately reported that MCX December futures reached ₹1,48,850 per 10 grams, down 1.02% at that intraday low on October 5. A futures contract quote is not interchangeable with a retail gold rate. Goodreturns reported 24-carat retail gold at ₹1,49,180 per 10 grams that Monday; that is a separate reference price, not the MCX December futures quote. Kotak Neo’s report identifies its figure as December futures.
What was the RBI repo rate, and was a new decision confirmed?
The Reserve Bank of India’s August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee resolution kept the policy repo rate at 5.25% and listed October 5–7 as the next meeting. This is the last rate confirmed by the cited policy resolution; the available sources do not confirm the result of the October meeting. Do not treat a forecast of a hike or a pre-decision report as an announced decision. The August resolution is reproduced by Track RBI.
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How can the repo rate affect gold?
Higher rates can raise gold’s opportunity cost
Gold does not pay interest. If policy tightening contributes to higher yields on interest-bearing assets, investors may find those alternatives relatively more attractive. The Reserve Bank of India’s November 2024 Bulletin described rising yields and a stronger US dollar as factors that can raise gold’s opportunity cost. This is a possible channel, not a rule that every rate increase immediately lowers gold.
The currency and global-market channels matter too
Gold prices also respond to global interest rates and the US dollar, inflation expectations, demand for safe-haven assets, and local-market conditions. The RBI’s decision may influence expectations, but it does not act in isolation. The RBI Bulletin’s discussion of gold’s 4.6% month-on-month rise in October 2024 attributed that historical move to safe-haven demand amid uncertainty around the US election and conflicts in the Middle East—an example of other forces affecting gold, not an explanation of the October 2026 fall. RBI Bulletin, November 2024.
How to read the October price move and analyst levels
Reports published October 5 described markets positioning ahead of the RBI meeting, but the cited material does not establish that expectations of RBI policy caused the decline. Global yields, the dollar and other market influences can move at the same time, and the available reports do not isolate the effect of any one factor.
Goodreturns attributed short-term levels of support at ₹1,45,900 and resistance at ₹1,51,500 to PL Capital. Those are an analyst’s dated technical view from October 5, 2026—not guaranteed floors, ceilings or a verified prediction. Goodreturns’ report also cited analysts expecting a possible 25-basis-point hike; that expectation should not be confused with an RBI announcement.
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- The confirmed RBI decision and stance: distinguish a published policy outcome from market expectations ahead of the meeting.
- US Treasury yields and the US dollar: both can affect the relative appeal and pricing context of gold.
- The exact quote: check whether a figure refers to an MCX futures contract, its date and time, or a retail 24-carat rate.
- Other market drivers: inflation expectations, safe-haven demand and local-market factors can reinforce or offset rate-related pressure.
A pre-decision report dated October 7, 2026, also discussed gold ahead of the RBI decision; it is context from before the outcome, not confirmation of the decision itself. India Metals and Commodities Forum.
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