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What the 20% figure means—and where it applies
The state attribution matters. USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Brazil Grain and Feed Annual explicitly says around 20% of second-season corn was planted outside the ideal window in Goiás. In its separate discussion of Mato Grosso, FAS says that persistent rains delayed soybean sowing, resulting in late sowing of a portion of the second corn crop, but gives no percentage for that portion.
For Mato Grosso, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), reporting an estimate from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) in June 2023, says 80% of the corn crop was planted in an ideal window. It is reasonable to infer that roughly 20% fell outside that window, but that is a calculation from the reported share, not a separately reported Mato Grosso figure. ESALQ/USP also summarized IMEA as estimating about 80% within the window.
What was planted, and when
FAS reported that Mato Grosso had planted 99.06% of its planned second-crop corn area by March 24, 2023. For comparison, progress by the same date was 99.92% in 2022 and the five-year average was 99.84%. These figures describe how much of the planned area had been sown by that date; they do not measure how much was within the ideal window.
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ESALQ/USP’s summary of IMEA put sowing at 99.78% of planned Mato Grosso second-crop area and said about 80% was within the ideal window. It defined the cutoff for that season as February 28. A separate Canal Rural report citing IMEA had projected 98.8% within the ideal window for the 2022/23 crop in December 2022; that was a projection made before planting was complete, not the later reported estimate.
| Report | Figure | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| USDA FAS, March 24, 2023 | 99.06% planted | Mato Grosso planned second-crop area sown by the reporting date; compared with 99.92% at the same point in 2022 and a 99.84% five-year average. |
| USDA ERS reporting IMEA, June 2023 | 80% within ideal window | Mato Grosso corn crop estimate; implies about 20% outside the window, but does not explicitly report that outside share. |
| ESALQ/USP reporting IMEA, 2023 | 99.78% sown; about 80% within window | Summary gives February 28 as the ideal-window cutoff. |
| Canal Rural reporting IMEA, December 2022 | 98.8% projected within window | A projection, not a final planting result. |
Why some Mato Grosso planting ran late
Second-season corn, commonly called safrinha (“little harvest”), is generally planted after soybeans. FAS describes the Brazilian crop as planted from December through March and estimates it represented roughly 77% of Brazil’s 2022/23 corn production. In Mato Grosso, persistent rains delayed soybean sowing, compressing the timetable for planting the following corn crop.
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The season’s ideal-window cutoff is described in reporting as late February; ESALQ/USP’s account of IMEA specifies February 28. This is a statewide explanatory threshold for interpreting the 2022/23 estimates, not a universal planting recommendation for every municipality or field.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Did late planting hurt the crop?
Not necessarily in this particular season. USDA ERS reported that even late-planted corn had good prospects given abundant rainfall during the season. That retrospective assessment does not establish that late planting is generally safe: timing, local conditions and weather vary, and the cited reports do not provide municipality-level risk guidance.
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The most accurate takeaway is therefore two-part: Mato Grosso did have late-sown second-crop corn after rain-delayed soybean sowing, while the approximately 20% outside-window share is inferred from IMEA’s 80% within-window estimate. The explicit USDA statement that around 20% was outside the window applies to Goiás.
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