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Italy’s 2023 Rice Output Forecast: Drought, Water and What Happened Next

Italy’s 2023 rice crop was forecast to shrink as drought threatened sowing, but that warning was not a final production total. Later outlooks and field reports describe different seasons and conditions.
From TheFinanceBase Team4 min to read
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Italy’s rice output was expected to fall in 2023 because drought threatened the spring sowing season and farmers were expected to plant less. That was a forecast reported on March 27, 2023—not a confirmed final harvest total. The story matters beyond Italy: the country produces about half of the European Union’s rice, and most Italian rice is grown in its northern rice belt.

What the 2023 warning said

Reuters reported that agricultural groups expected Italian rice production to fall as farmers faced a second consecutive year of drought and reduced the area sown. Ente Nazionale Risi director general Roberto Magnaghi described the uncertain outlook for sowing. The report did not establish a final 2023 national production figure, so “set to fall” should be read as a forecast, not a verified result. Reuters, republished by ESM Magazine, March 27, 2023.

The warning followed a difficult 2022: Reuters reported Italian rice production fell 17% from the previous year, while output in Pavia province fell 16%. Those are reported 2022 declines; they are not measurements of the predicted 2023 result.

Why drought threatened the crop

Dry ground and reduced Alpine snow

The 2023 report cited soil moisture that had not recovered from the previous drought and lower Alpine snow accumulation than in 2022. Both conditions mattered because the rice season was approaching: sowing begins in April, when farmers in the traditional northern system place seeds in pools roughly 30 to 40 centimetres deep and irrigate to keep young sprouts submerged.

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A water-intensive cultivation system

Reuters reported an estimated 3,000 to 10,000 litres of water per kilogram of rice output, depending on variety and other conditions. This wide range was an attributed estimate in a news report, not a single universal requirement for every farm or a harmonised technical measurement. The submerged-pool description likewise refers to the traditional northern approach in the report, not every Italian rice operation.

Andrea Toreti, an agriculture expert at the European Commission Joint Research Centre, told Reuters: “It will be hard to fill the shortfall we have with spring rainfalls.” Coldiretti’s head of economics, Lorenzo Bazzana, said Italy “manages to collect just 11% of its rainwater.” These were attributed statements in the 2023 report, not a national water-balance assessment.

Why a smaller Italian crop matters

Italy is central to EU rice supply. Reuters said the country cultivated about 50% of EU rice in 2023; the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service described Italy as accounting for more than half of EU production in its 2023 report. These are source-specific approximate descriptions, not identical measures.

Production is concentrated in the north: Reuters reported that Lombardy and Piedmont grew 94% of Italy’s crop. USDA also identified Piemonte, Lombardia and Veneto among the principal cultivation regions. USDA said 75% of Italian rice varieties are Japonica; Reuters highlighted Arborio and Carnaroli as varieties used for risotto.

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What farmers and researchers were considering

Water-saving cultivation and different growing regions

Reuters reported that Sicily had resumed small-scale rice cultivation in 2016 using techniques said to require less water than traditional northern methods. The report did not provide a controlled comparison of water use, yields or the feasibility of scaling this approach across the northern rice belt.

Drought-resistant varieties

Ente Nazionale Risi was researching drought-resistant varieties. Magnaghi said: “With traditional methods it takes years to create new varieties.” Reuters also reported that EU rules limiting genetically modified crops hampered the work; that describes the account in the 2023 article, not a current analysis of EU law.

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How later reports changed the picture

Later evidence shows why the 2023 warning should not be treated as a settled trend or a final result. In September 2025, the European Commission Joint Research Centre described rice prospects in Italy as positive and forecast EU rice yield at 6% above the five-year average. That was a seasonal outlook, not final production statistics. European Commission Joint Research Centre, September 22, 2025.

Reuters footage dated August 6–7, 2026, documented drought damage and water-management responses in parts of Italy’s rice belt. In those locations, irrigation was being rotated. Farmer Giuseppe Tagliabue said he prioritised certain varieties and fields and abandoned others; he expected almost normal harvests in retained fields and virtually nothing from the field shown in the footage. Those observations document local conditions and decisions, not an Italy-wide harvest total. Reuters Connect, footage dated August 6–7, 2026.

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Local storage proposals

In the same 2026 reporting, Est Sesia water-management director Franco Bullano described a proposed storage basin of about 2.5 million cubic metres, being developed with Politecnico di Milano engineers to store and release water and reduce downstream flow fluctuations. It was a project in development, not a completed basin or proof of a national production effect. Bullano said: “I have to say that we only retain 10 to 11 per cent of rainfall. That is very little.”

What the evidence does—and does not—establish

The 2023 report establishes that a drought-driven reduction in Italian rice area and output was forecast, against a backdrop of poor water conditions and a sharp 2022 decline. USDA’s 2023 EU outlook separately forecast EU rice area to rise in marketing year 2023/24 and production to recover somewhat, while warning that Italian drought could affect area and yields. That EU forecast did not verify Italy’s final 2023 crop. The later JRC outlook and Reuters field footage describe different seasons and measures; neither provides a definitive full-year 2026 Italian rice-output total.

For readers following food costs or supply, the practical takeaway is to distinguish a forecast, a local report from affected farms, and a finalized national crop statistic. A drought warning can signal risk to an important source of EU rice, but it does not by itself establish how much rice reached the market or how retail prices changed.

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