There is a major estimated lithium resource in geothermal brines beneath California’s Salton Sea region, but the claim that it is worth $540 billion is not verified by the official sources cited here. The lithium is not in the lake: it is in hot, salty fluid more than a mile underground, physically separate from the Salton Sea. And an estimated resource is not the same as lithium that can be economically extracted and sold today.
What the $540 billion claim gets right—and wrong
The Salton Sea geothermal region has substantial lithium resource potential. In a November 2023 announcement, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said a Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory analysis estimated more than 3,400 kilotons of lithium could be present, assuming expected technology advances and access to the entire geothermal reservoir for electricity production and full extraction from the resulting brines. DOE compared that amount with more than 375 million electric-vehicle batteries. Those conditions matter: the estimate is not proof that all the lithium is commercially recoverable now. DOE’s announcement
The official DOE materials cited here do not substantiate a $540 billion valuation. A dollar figure depends on what lithium product is being valued, the assumed price and date, the share that can be recovered, and the costs of extraction and processing. Without those inputs, the headline number should not be treated as a verified market value.
Where the lithium actually is
The lithium is associated with geothermal brine: concentrated saline water that circulates through very hot underground rocks and can become enriched with elements such as lithium. The California Energy Commission (CEC) says the geothermal source serving plants near Calipatria and Niland in Imperial County lies more than a mile underground and is not physically connected to the surface Salton Sea. Calling it lithium “beneath the lake” can therefore give the wrong impression: the estimate concerns an underground geothermal resource in the region, not the lake water. CEC lithium recovery FAQ
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How to read the resource estimates
DOE’s categories describe different resource groupings, not a single figure for lithium ready to be mined. Its fact sheet, dated November 2023 and posted in May 2025, lists 760 kilotons as accessible, 2,600 kilotons as proven, and 3,400 kilotons as probable. Keep the labels attached to the numbers: they should not be combined or restated as a quantity that is already being recovered commercially. DOE resource fact sheet
The same fact sheet says the region had 400 megawatts of geothermal capacity in 2023 and estimates that capacity could produce 21,500 tons of lithium-in-brine annually; it also says that lithium was not then being recovered. DOE identifies potential geothermal capacity of up to 2,950 megawatts. Capacity, lithium contained in brine, and lithium product actually recovered are different measures.
CEC also cites estimates in lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), a compound-equivalent measure rather than elemental lithium. It reports more than 2 million metric tons estimated in the reservoir, a CEC-funded study estimate of more than 600,000 metric tons LCE per year if fully developed, and roughly 127,000 metric tons LCE per year associated with current geothermal capacity. These are not directly interchangeable with DOE’s elemental-lithium figures or with a project’s annual output. CEC says conversion from LCE to lithium metal uses division by 5.323.
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How geothermal lithium extraction could work
Direct lithium extraction (DLE) refers to a family of methods designed to separate lithium from brine. In the proposed Project ATLiS process, DOE says brine would be piped from the underground geothermal field, impurities removed, and lithium separated using the project’s proprietary ILiAD technology. The lithium-depleted brine would be reinjected into the geothermal reservoir, while the lithium would be further purified and crystallized into battery-grade material. This is a description of that project’s proposed process, not a claim that every DLE technology works identically. DOE’s Project ATLiS announcement
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The approach aims to pair lithium recovery with geothermal electricity generation, using brine associated with power production as the feedstock. Whether a resource estimate translates into sustained output depends on engineering, project development, and successful recovery at commercial scale.
What the proposed ATLiS facility would produce
On January 15, 2025, DOE’s Loan Programs Office announced a conditional commitment of up to $1.36 billion to SPV ESM ATLiS LLC, a subsidiary of EnergySource Minerals, for a proposed facility in Imperial County. DOE said the facility was expected to produce up to 20,000 metric tons of lithium hydroxide per year, equivalent in its announcement to about 52 gigawatt-hours of batteries. DOE described it as the first U.S. facility expected to use DLE at commercial scale. These are projections attached to a conditional financing commitment, not evidence that the facility is operating or producing that volume.
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Water use and local impacts
Water-use figures depend on the method and the comparison being made. CEC cites estimates discussed during state commission proceedings of 50,000 to 55,000 gallons per metric ton of lithium carbonate for DLE, compared with approximately 500,000 gallons per ton for evaporation-pond methods. These are cited estimates, not a guarantee for every facility; CEC says project-specific water sources and amounts are assessed during permitting. DOE’s 2025 fact sheet separately states that DLE requires 99% less water per ton than current lithium-mining processes. The two comparisons have different stated scopes and should not be treated as interchangeable universal measurements.
DOE says its regional analysis considered water use, air emissions, and solid waste, and involved engagement with the surrounding community. CEC notes that California’s lithium extraction tax took effect on January 1, 2023, with 20% of proceeds directed to the Salton Sea Restoration Fund and the remainder distributed to affected counties. It also explains that the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) requires tribal consultation and public opportunities to comment on environmental documents. These policies and review processes do not, by themselves, settle the environmental or community questions associated with individual projects.
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Why a resource estimate is not a $540 billion asset
A resource estimate describes lithium believed to exist under stated assumptions; it does not establish how much a company can recover, what product it can make, or how much revenue remains after costs. The Salton Sea figures also use different units and categories: elemental lithium, lithium carbonate equivalent, lithium contained in brine, and expected lithium hydroxide output are not equivalent measures.
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A defensible valuation would need to specify the lithium product and price date, estimate recoverable rather than merely in-place material, and account for recovery rates, processing, infrastructure, financing, and operating costs. The cited government sources quantify resource potential and project expectations, but they do not provide the assumptions needed to verify the $540 billion figure. A large resource may have strategic and economic importance without being worth a matching amount in realizable sales.
What scientists are still studying
The resource estimates are part of a broader effort to understand the underground geothermal system. A September 2024 U.S. Geological Survey feature described ongoing analysis of airborne geophysical data collected with DOE in 2021 to study subsurface heat and fluid movement and identify potential geothermal-lithium hotspots. That work provides geological context; it is distinct from the DOE and Berkeley Lab regional resource quantification. USGS feature on lithium in energy wastewater
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