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The Money Desk · Blog
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Is the S&P 500 Historically Expensive or Cheap? It Depends on the Measure

Traditional earnings measures showed elevated S&P 500 valuations in late 2025 and at the start of 2026. A free-cash-flow framework offers a different perspective, and none of those dated readings establishes today’s multiple.
From TheFinanceBase Team4 min to read
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By traditional earnings measures, the S&P 500 looked expensive in the latest documented snapshots—not cheap. The Federal Reserve said in November 2025 that its forward price-to-earnings ratio was well above its historical median and near the upper end of its historical range. At the start of 2026, Aswath Damodaran’s data also showed several S&P 500 P/E measures above their 2021–2025 averages. But an analysis using free cash flow rather than accounting earnings reaches a more qualified conclusion about U.S. company valuations. These dated readings do not establish the index’s valuation on October 7, 2026.

What does “historically expensive” mean?

A valuation is only “expensive” relative to a specified measure, comparison period and observation date. A P/E ratio divides a share price by earnings, but the result changes depending on which earnings count: analyst forecasts for the next 12 months, a normalized earnings figure, or a decade of inflation-adjusted earnings. Those measures answer related but different questions.

That distinction matters when comparing today’s market with history. A ratio can be above one historical benchmark and closer to another; a current reading can also change as forecasts, prices and reported earnings change. Valuation multiples are not precise short-term market-timing signals.

What the dated earnings measures show

The Federal Reserve’s November 2025 Financial Stability Report said the S&P 500 forward P/E—equity prices divided by expected earnings over the next 12 months—remained well above its historical median and near the upper end of its historical range.

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Damodaran’s start-of-2026 dataset supplies dated readings for three earnings-based measures. The table compares those readings with the reported 2021–2025 period averages; the averages are not a long-run historical norm.

Measure Denominator Start of 2026 2021–2025 average
S&P 500 P/E Earnings used in Damodaran’s P/E series 25.21 — Aswath Damodaran, 2026 22.33 — Aswath Damodaran, 2026
Normalized P/E Normalized earnings 37.14 — Aswath Damodaran, 2026 33.32 — Aswath Damodaran, 2026
CAPE Ten-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings 32.41 — Aswath Damodaran, 2026 29.12 — Aswath Damodaran, 2026

All three start-of-2026 readings exceed their respective 2021–2025 averages. That supports calling them elevated relative to that recent five-year comparison, but it does not make the averages equivalent to a full historical benchmark. The figures are start-of-year observations, not October 2026 readings.

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What is the S&P 500 CAPE ratio?

CAPE, or cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings, compares the index’s price with a decade of inflation-adjusted earnings. Averaging earnings across ten years can smooth some business-cycle swings that distort a single year’s profit figure. The trade-off is that CAPE responds slowly when the economy or the composition of the market changes.

CAPE is therefore a long-horizon comparison tool, not a forecast of what the index will do next. Its 32.41 start-of-2026 reading in Damodaran’s dataset is higher than that dataset’s 29.12 average for 2021–2025; that comparison says nothing by itself about the timing or size of a future market move.

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Why can free-cash-flow analysis look different?

Accounting earnings are not the only way to assess what supports company valuations. A 2026 Minneapolis Fed account of economists’ work describes a free-cash-flow framework under which aggregate U.S. company valuations look historically consistent with cash generation. It also reports that free-cash-flow yield has declined since 2023.

This is not a direct recalculation of the S&P 500’s CAPE: it uses a broader company universe and a different denominator. It helps explain why traditional earnings multiples can suggest unusually high valuations while a cash-flow lens presents a less out-of-line picture. The measures differ; neither should be treated as a universal substitute for the other.

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What does the equity premium add?

The Federal Reserve’s November 2025 report also said its estimate of the equity premium was near a 20-year low as of October 2025. In that report, the estimate is the forward earnings yield—the inverse of forward P/E—minus an expected real Treasury yield. It compares expected equity earnings with a real government-bond yield, rather than comparing an equity multiple with its own historical average.

A low estimated premium can indicate that investors receive less expected earnings yield over the real Treasury yield than they have in much of the comparison period. It is still an estimate, not a guaranteed return or a stand-alone forecast.

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What the index represents—and what its price omits

The S&P 500 is a broad U.S. equity benchmark, but its coverage descriptions use different denominators. FRED’s series notes describe it as 500 leading companies covering about 75% of U.S. equities. S&P Dow Jones Indices describes it as covering approximately 80% of available market capitalization. These are not the same stated coverage measure.

The FRED S&P 500 series is a price index: it excludes dividends. Its price movement should not be confused with total return, which includes dividends. That distinction matters when readers compare index performance across time, though it does not change the earnings-denominator differences among the valuation measures above.

So, is the S&P 500 expensive or cheap?

The best-supported answer is conditional. The Federal Reserve’s November 2025 forward P/E assessment and Damodaran’s start-of-2026 P/E, normalized P/E and CAPE readings point to an expensive market relative to the benchmarks those sources report. The Minneapolis Fed’s 2026 account shows why a broader free-cash-flow framework can make aggregate U.S. valuations look more consistent with history. Because the measures use different denominators and company universes, they do not produce one definitive verdict—and none of these snapshots establishes a live October 2026 valuation.

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