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Intel is improving, but it has not completed its turnaround. Revenue and operating execution strengthened in the second quarter of 2026, with Intel reporting $16.1 billion in revenue, up 25% year over year, and 18A entering volume production for internal products. But Intel Foundry still lost about $2.1 billion, and the company has not yet proved that outside customers will generate the scale needed for a profitable contract-manufacturing business.
Lip-Bu Tan became Intel’s chief executive on March 18, 2025. The relevant question in 2026 is no longer what a new CEO might do, but whether Tan’s strategy is turning technical progress into durable product momentum, cash generation, and external foundry demand.
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The short verdict
Intel has moved from crisis management toward operational recovery, particularly in its CPU business and manufacturing execution. Its factories have reported better yields, shorter cycle times and improved wafer costs across several process generations. The company also says 18A is now in volume production for internal products.
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The most accurate description is therefore: Intel is in a genuine but incomplete recovery. Tan must simultaneously improve the economics of Intel’s existing products and persuade outside chip designers that Intel can deliver competitive manufacturing, packaging, schedules, pricing and confidentiality.
Intel announced Tan’s appointment on March 12, 2025, with the change taking effect six days later.
Why Lip-Bu Tan was chosen
Tan is not simply an operational caretaker. He was chief executive of Cadence Design Systems from 2009 to 2021, giving him long experience with chip designers, electronic-design-automation software and the relationships that connect semiconductor companies, equipment suppliers and manufacturers.
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He also served on Intel’s board from September 2022 until August 2024. That background gave him familiarity with Intel’s technology decisions and strategic tensions before he accepted the top job.
His customer and ecosystem perspective matters because Intel is trying to do two difficult things at once: design competitive chips and operate a manufacturing service for other companies. A foundry customer must trust Intel not only to build a technically sound process, but also to provide usable design tools, predictable capacity, reliable delivery and organizational separation from Intel’s own product groups.
What Tan inherited
Intel’s problem was broader than simply falling behind in semiconductor process technology. The company had to restore manufacturing leadership while defending a traditional CPU franchise and funding a new foundry business before that business had meaningful external revenue.
That created several overlapping pressures:
- Product competition: AMD and Arm-based systems challenged Intel in client computing, while AMD, custom cloud processors and other designs competed in data-center CPUs.
- AI disruption: Nvidia, AMD and hyperscalers’ custom silicon captured much of the attention and spending in AI accelerators.
- Manufacturing competition: TSMC and Samsung offered established external-foundry ecosystems and substantial scale.
- Capital intensity: Leading-edge fabs, advanced packaging and process development require enormous investment before customer revenue arrives.
- Strategic complexity: Intel’s product divisions and foundry operations must cooperate technically while avoiding conflicts that could make outside customers reluctant to commit.
These challenges should be separated into four questions. Product competitiveness asks whether Intel can sell attractive CPUs, networking products, ASICs and other hardware. Process competitiveness asks whether it can manufacture those products on schedule, at acceptable yields and at competitive cost. Foundry credibility asks whether outside companies will entrust important products to Intel. Financial sustainability asks whether the company can fund the strategy without permanently weakening returns or its balance sheet.
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What has improved under Tan
Operating results improved sharply in the second quarter
Intel reported the following second-quarter 2026 figures in its official earnings release:
| Measure | Second quarter 2026 |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.1 billion, up 25% year over year |
| Non-GAAP diluted EPS | $0.42 |
| GAAP diluted EPS | $(2.16) |
| Non-GAAP operating margin | Approximately 17.2% |
| Third-quarter revenue guidance | $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion |
| Third-quarter non-GAAP EPS guidance | $0.38 |
The adjusted figures show a substantial improvement in operating performance. The GAAP loss still matters, however. Intel’s reported GAAP result was affected by a major noncash mark associated with escrowed government-related shares, according to analysis of the company’s filing. That accounting effect makes the quarter harder to interpret, but it does not make GAAP earnings irrelevant. Adjusted results help isolate ongoing operations; GAAP results show the full accounting outcome for shareholders.
Management attributed the improvement to strong CPU demand, better factory yields, shorter cycle times and improved execution. One strong quarter cannot establish durable market-share gains, but it is stronger evidence than a roadmap announcement alone.
Factory execution is becoming more measurable
Intel has reported better yields, improved cycle times and lower wafer costs across Intel 4, Intel 3 and 18A. It has also expanded assembly and test capacity in Penang, Malaysia.
These details matter because a semiconductor process is not commercially successful merely because it works in a laboratory. Intel must produce wafers consistently, at sufficient volume, with acceptable defect rates and costs. It must then package and test the resulting chips without creating a new bottleneck.
Intel says 18A has reached volume production for internal products, while 18A-P has entered risk production. Those milestones suggest that the company has converted part of its manufacturing plan into an operating program. They do not yet prove that the same process can attract large external customers or produce attractive foundry margins.
Packaging has received greater strategic attention
In June 2026, Intel appointed Seok-Hee Lee as executive vice president of Intel Foundry. Lee is responsible for advanced packaging, system integration, back-end technology development and back-end manufacturing, according to Intel’s announcement.
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Naga Chandrasekaran continues to lead front-end technology development and manufacturing, including the 18A and 14A ramps. The separation highlights how important packaging has become. Chiplets and AI systems increasingly depend on technologies such as Foveros and EMIB, so wafer fabrication alone is not enough. A foundry must also provide customers with high-quality integration, test and packaging at the required scale.
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The product business should be judged separately from the foundry strategy. Intel can improve its CPU results without proving that it is a competitive external manufacturer, and the foundry can make technical progress without immediately producing strong financial returns.
The second-quarter rebound appears to reflect a combination of demand, product mix, supply availability and improved execution. It is encouraging, but readers should avoid treating it as proof that Intel has permanently restored its former position. The important questions are whether revenue growth continues beyond a favorable period, whether data-center CPU customers keep choosing Intel, and whether newer products can support healthy margins as manufacturing costs rise.
Intel can participate in AI infrastructure through Xeon CPUs, networking, custom ASICs, advanced packaging and manufacturing. It does not need to become Nvidia’s direct equivalent to benefit from AI-related spending. AI servers still require general-purpose processors and supporting infrastructure.
But indirect participation has limits. The highest-value parts of the AI stack may be captured by accelerator vendors, cloud providers and custom-chip designers. Intel needs a credible combination of silicon, software, systems and customer support if it wants more than a supporting role. AI-driven demand can also obscure weaknesses if revenue rises while margins and cash flow remain under pressure.
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This is the central test of Tan’s tenure.
What the evidence supports
- 18A has reached volume production for Intel’s own products.
- 18A-P has entered risk production.
- Intel reports improved yields, cycle times and wafer costs.
- The company is developing 14A and says customer engagement is increasing.
- Intel is investing in advanced packaging and expanded assembly and test capacity.
- U.S.-based leading-edge manufacturing could offer supply-chain and geopolitical value to some customers and policymakers.
These developments show that Intel Foundry is more than a strategy on paper. It has operating factories, process milestones and a technology roadmap.
What remains unproven
Intel Foundry still lost approximately $2.1 billion in the second quarter, according to reported earnings coverage. External-foundry revenue remains small compared with Intel’s overall sales.
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Intel’s own filing identifies difficulty attracting significant external customers and uncertainty about future customers for 14A. That is a crucial qualification. Producing Intel’s own chips on 18A validates internal manufacturing execution. It does not automatically validate Intel as a merchant foundry.
External customers will evaluate:
- Yield consistency and performance across production runs.
- Process-design kits and electronic-design-automation support.
- Delivery schedules and available capacity.
- Pricing and total cost of ownership.
- Intellectual-property support and advanced packaging.
- Confidentiality and separation from Intel’s internal product businesses.
- Whether Intel can support a product for years, not merely complete an initial wafer run.
TSMC’s established ecosystem and scale remain powerful advantages. Intel must therefore prove not just that it can build a node, but that customers can build successful products around it.
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What 18A and 14A really mean
18A and 14A are Intel process-generation names, not direct transistor-density measurements that can be compared one-for-one with every competitor’s node label.
Intel has emphasized gate-all-around transistor technology and backside power delivery for its advanced nodes. The practical questions are whether those technologies deliver competitive performance, power efficiency, density, cost and yield at volume.
18A is the immediate execution test. It must move from internal-product production to reliable, economical manufacturing and, ideally, customer products.
14A is the next strategic test. Intel says internal-product risk production is targeted for the second half of 2027 and that it has committed to a high-volume ramp in 2028. Those are management targets, not completed milestones. Intel also says customer engagement is increasing, but engagement is not the same as a disclosed high-volume design win.
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The government’s role
Intel’s U.S. manufacturing strategy aligns with government efforts to rebuild domestic semiconductor capacity. The company has entered agreements with the U.S. government supporting semiconductor technology and manufacturing leadership.
That support can reduce financing pressure, strengthen Intel’s strategic position and make domestic leading-edge manufacturing more viable. It does not substitute for competitive yields, commercial customers or profitable operations.
Government-related equity or funding arrangements can also create accounting complexity and potential dilution concerns. Investors should therefore distinguish between strategic support and operating success. Public backing may help Intel continue investing; it cannot guarantee that customers will choose Intel Foundry.
The financial test is bigger than revenue
Intel’s recovery needs to be evaluated across several financial measures:
- Revenue: Is growth sustained, or does it reflect a temporary supply or demand rebound?
- Gross margin: Can Intel scale new processes without allowing manufacturing costs to consume the benefit of stronger products?
- Operating cash flow: Is the business generating enough cash to support investment?
- Capital expenditure: How much must Intel spend on fabs, process development and packaging before the returns arrive?
- Foundry losses: Are losses narrowing consistently, or only improving temporarily with internal-product demand?
- Balance-sheet flexibility: Can Intel fund 14A and later nodes without excessive borrowing, dilution or reliance on additional strategic support?
The central trade-off is unavoidable. Aggressive investment gives Intel a better chance of restoring process leadership and building a U.S.-anchored foundry, but increases capital and execution risk. Conservative investment may improve near-term financial discipline while increasing the risk that Intel permanently loses leading-edge manufacturing relevance.
What to watch through 2027 and 2028
| Area | Evidence that would strengthen the recovery case | Warning sign |
|---|---|---|
| 18A | Reliable yields, competitive costs and customer products entering production | Technical milestones without volume economics or outside adoption |
| 14A | Specific external design wins and progress toward targeted 2027 risk production | Large capital commitments without firm customer demand |
| Foundry revenue | Growing, repeatable external-customer revenue | Most foundry activity remains tied to Intel’s own products |
| Foundry losses | Consistent reduction as utilization and yields improve | Losses remain near current levels despite process progress |
| Products | Sustained CPU growth, data-center wins and profitable AI-related revenue | A short-lived rebound masks weak share or margin trends |
| Cash flow | Improving operating cash flow alongside disciplined capital spending | Higher spending repeatedly outpaces internally generated cash |
| Packaging | High-volume deployments using Intel’s advanced packaging | Back-end capacity or integration becomes the next bottleneck |
What could still go wrong?
- 18A could work technically but not economically. Good yields are not enough if costs are too high to support attractive margins.
- 18A could succeed internally but fail to attract outside customers. Internal validation is not merchant-foundry validation.
- 14A could require funding before demand is secure. The company may have to invest heavily before customers commit to production.
- CPU demand could temporarily mask structural weakness. A strong quarter does not prove durable share gains.
- AI demand could benefit competitors more. Intel may sell supporting CPUs while other companies capture higher-value accelerators and systems.
- Packaging could become a bottleneck. Advanced packaging is increasingly important for chiplets and AI hardware.
- Government support could create false confidence. Strategic backing can help Intel invest, but it does not establish commercial competitiveness.
- Accounting items could obscure trends. Adjusted earnings should clarify operating performance, not replace attention to GAAP results, cash flow and capital needs.
- Leadership changes could disrupt execution. Reorganizations can improve accountability but may also unsettle teams and customers.
- Customers may question neutrality. Intel must show that its product groups and foundry operations can coexist without conflicts over information, capacity or priorities.
Where to track Intel’s next milestones
Readers can follow the company without relying on promotional commentary. Intel’s investor-relations site provides earnings releases, filings and call materials. Its email-alert service offers company announcements, while SEC filing access provides the underlying disclosures. Intel’s foundry information is useful for following process and packaging claims.
A brokerage account or paid research service may help someone who has independently decided to invest, but neither replaces reading Intel’s filings. This analysis is not a buy, sell or hold recommendation.
Final assessment
Tan has moved Intel’s turnaround forward. The company is showing stronger quarterly results, better manufacturing execution and tangible progress on 18A. Its product business may benefit from renewed CPU demand and the wider expansion of AI infrastructure.
But the hardest part remains unresolved. Intel Foundry must convert technical milestones into significant external-customer revenue, narrower losses and acceptable returns on the capital being invested. 14A, targeted for internal-product risk production in the second half of 2027 and a high-volume ramp in 2028, will be an important future test rather than proof of success today.
Intel is no longer merely announcing a turnaround. It is demonstrating pieces of one. The company is not yet finished proving that those pieces can form a durable, profitable business.
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