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What do the headline estimates include?
The American Immigration Council’s October 2024 analysis modeled two different operations. They differ in pace, capacity, and assumptions, so the $315 billion and $967.9 billion figures are not alternative estimates of the same plan.
| Scenario | Modeled operation | Estimated government cost | Important assumptions and exclusions |
|---|---|---|---|
| One-time operation | Target 13.3 million people | At least $315 billion | Uses current costs and does not include capital expenditures for new capacity. |
| Annual removals over time | Remove one million people each year | $967.9 billion over 10.6 years; average annual cost estimated at $88 billion | Assumes 20% leave voluntarily before arrest, includes capital capacity for detention and processing, and applies 2.5% annual inflation. |
The Council says the operation’s unprecedented scale and the number of variables make a full cost estimate impossible. It cautions that “it is impossible to fully model the governmental costs” of such an effort. The figures are therefore scenario estimates, not a forecast of what the federal government would necessarily spend.
How does the $315 billion estimate break down?
For its one-time, 13.3-million-person scenario, the American Immigration Council estimated these direct operational costs:
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| Cost category | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Arrests | $89.3 billion |
| Detention | $167.8 billion |
| Legal processing | $34.1 billion |
| Removals | $24.1 billion |
The listed components total about $315.3 billion, consistent with the report’s rounded headline of at least $315 billion. Detention is the largest listed category. The total is not a line item in an enacted federal budget, and this scenario does not include the capital spending assumed in the Council’s separate multiyear model.
What do the GDP estimates mean?
GDP estimates address a different question: how much economic output could be lost relative to a scenario without the modeled deportations. They are not estimates of money the government would pay to carry out removals, and they cannot be added to the enforcement-cost figures as if they were another bill.
| Source and scenario | Reported economic effect | What the figure measures |
|---|---|---|
| American Immigration Council, October 2024 | 4.2% to 6.8% reduction in annual U.S. GDP, equivalent in the report to $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion | Annual GDP effect expressed in 2022 dollars. The report compares the percentage range with the 4.3% contraction during the Great Recession. |
| Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), 2024: deport 1.3 million unauthorized workers | GDP 1.2% below baseline by 2028; hours worked 1.1% below baseline | Modeled GDP and hours-worked levels compared with PIIE’s baseline in 2028. |
| PIIE, 2024: deport 8.3 million unauthorized workers | GDP 7.4% below baseline by 2028; hours worked nearly 7% below baseline | A separate, much larger worker-deportation scenario, also compared with PIIE’s 2028 baseline. |
The Council and PIIE use different populations, assumptions, baselines, and time horizons. The Council’s dollar range is an annual output estimate in 2022 dollars; PIIE’s percentages describe GDP levels below its baseline by 2028. These are not directly comparable estimates, and their agreement on the direction of effect does not make them independent confirmations of one shared dollar figure.
Why could deportations affect output beyond the people removed?
Workers contribute to production, and their departure can also affect employers, suppliers, customers, and local demand. The American Immigration Council identifies construction, agriculture, and hospitality among industries exposed to workforce disruption. It estimated that undocumented immigrants made up nearly 14% of construction workers.
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For scale, the Council estimated that undocumented immigrants represented 4.6% of the employed U.S. labor force, or 7.5 million people, using 2022 data. That workforce share is not a count of people who would necessarily be deported under any particular policy, nor does it by itself determine the GDP effect: the Council and PIIE model different populations and scenarios.
How should tax and household-spending figures be read?
The Council reported that undocumented immigrant households contributed an estimated $46.8 billion in federal taxes and $29.3 billion in state and local taxes in 2022. It also estimated $22.6 billion in Social Security contributions, $5.7 billion to Medicare, and $256.8 billion in purchasing power.
These are estimates of 2022 contributions and spending, not current-year figures and not estimates of deportation-program costs. They help describe economic activity that could change if people and households leave, but they should not be treated as a simple dollar-for-dollar offset to the cost of enforcement or as a direct forecast of lost tax revenue.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Do later federal projections provide a total cost?
No consolidated realized cost through October 7, 2026, is established by the sources summarized here. The Congressional Budget Office’s 2025 demographic update assessed impacts of the 2025 reconciliation act using information available as of July 31, 2025. CBO’s 2026 outlook says lower immigration slows labor-force growth and puts downward pressure on output. Those sources provide context about enacted policy and demographic projections; neither recalculates the American Immigration Council’s hypothetical operation or supplies a total realized deportation cost.
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Quick Recap
What remains uncertain?
- Who is included: modeled target populations differ, and estimates depend on the population and workers assumed to be removed.
- How fast an operation proceeds: a one-time operation and a program removing people annually require different staffing, detention, processing, and removal capacity.
- What infrastructure is needed: the Council’s one-time estimate excludes capital expenditures; its 10.6-year scenario includes expanded capacity.
- How many people depart voluntarily: the Council’s multiyear model assumes 20% leave before arrest.
- How the economy adjusts: output effects depend on labor demand, hours worked, employer responses, and changes in household spending. The reported estimates are model results, not observed outcomes.
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