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If a Bear Market Is Underway, History Says This Is the Biggest Investing Mistake to Avoid

The biggest bear-market mistake is panic-selling everything and then trying to time the re-entry. Here is what the historical S&P 500 averages show, when selling can make sense, and how to prepare.
From TheFinanceBase Team4 min to read
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The biggest mistake in a bear market is panic-selling your entire portfolio. Selling after a sharp drop may relieve the immediate discomfort, but buying back later at a better price requires correctly timing both decisions. Neil Patel made that point in an October 13, 2026 article for The Motley Fool, while also stressing that investors should understand what they own and maintain a cash buffer for potential opportunities.

That is not a command to hold every security forever. A planned change based on an investment’s fundamentals, your asset allocation, or a genuine cash need is different from abandoning a portfolio solely because prices have fallen.

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Why panic-selling is so damaging

A selloff creates two separate decisions: when to exit and when to re-enter. An investor who sells after prices fall must later decide that the danger has passed and commit money again, often while headlines remain frightening. Missing only part of a recovery can materially change long-term results.

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Patel’s advice is behavioral rather than a market forecast. “Investors simply need to stay the course,” he wrote. Staying the course means following a plan that was set before the panic, not refusing to reassess an investment whose underlying facts or role in the portfolio have changed.

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What the historical averages actually show

Stifel Investment Strategy’s 2026 S&P 500 chart, using data attributed to Stifel Investment Strategy via Strategas Securities, LLC and Bloomberg as of March 31, 2026, reports the following averages for periods since 1932:

Measure Bear markets Bull markets
Average duration 1.5 years 4.9 years
Average cumulative result 35.1% loss 177.6% cumulative total return

These are historical averages for the S&P 500, not a timetable for the current decline and not an expected return for an individual investor. Some bear markets have been shorter, others longer, and an index’s experience may differ sharply from a concentrated portfolio, a single stock, bonds, property, or another asset class.

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The Motley Fool article also noted that, as of October 9, 2026, the S&P 500 was up 14% for the year and described the bull market as having begun in October 2022. Those figures were context in an article published October 13, 2026; they should not be treated as live market data after that date.

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When selling can be a rational decision

A blanket “never sell” rule can be as dangerous as panic. Consider a sale when the reason is established in advance or supported by information unrelated to fear:

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  • The investment thesis changed: A company’s financial condition, business prospects, or risk profile no longer matches why you bought it.
  • Your allocation drifted: Rebalancing may require selling an asset that has become too large a share of the portfolio.
  • Your time horizon changed: Money needed soon may not belong in a volatile asset, regardless of the market’s direction.
  • You need liquidity: An unavoidable expense can justify using investments, especially if no adequate cash reserve exists.
  • Your risk capacity is lower than assumed: A plan that causes you to panic repeatedly may need a more conservative allocation.

Those are plan-based decisions. Selling everything because a decline feels unbearable is the timing gamble Patel warned about.

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How to prepare before the next sharp decline

1. Inventory what you own

For each holding, record its purpose, expected risk, time horizon, fees, tax considerations, and the conditions that would make you sell. If you cannot explain why an investment is in the portfolio, a market crisis is a poor time to discover that weakness.

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2. Check the portfolio’s intended mix

Compare current weights with your target allocation. Decide in advance how and when you will rebalance, including whether you will use new contributions or staged trades rather than an all-at-once reaction.

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3. Build a cash buffer suited to your obligations

The article recommends keeping cash available for possible opportunities during a downturn but does not set a universal amount. The appropriate reserve depends on income stability, emergency needs, debt, upcoming expenses, taxes, and access to other liquid assets. Cash held for near-term spending should not be confused with money reserved for speculative market timing.

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4. Write rules for stressful days

Useful rules can include a waiting period before an unplanned trade, a requirement to review the original investment thesis, and a commitment to consult a qualified adviser or tax professional when the decision has major consequences. Automating contributions can also reduce the temptation to make an emotional, all-or-nothing move.

Limits of the historical evidence

Stifel’s chart covers the S&P 500 and its defined historical periods; it does not show what every market or portfolio will do next. The index figures are unmanaged, do not reflect fees or expenses, and are not available for direct investment. As Stifel’s disclosure states, “Past performance does not guarantee future results.” Investing can result in loss of principal.

History therefore supports humility, not certainty. A bear market may last longer than the 1.5-year average, and a recovery may not resemble the 177.6% average cumulative total return reported for bull-market periods. The practical lesson is to separate a deliberate financial decision from an attempt to predict the next turn in prices.

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