In HSBC Global Research’s October 2012 forecast, China, the United States and India were projected to have the three largest economies in 2050. The ranking measures total GDP—not wealth per person or living standards—and its figures are estimates in constant 2000 US dollars, not current data or predictions of 2050 dollar values.
HSBC’s projected top 15 economies in 2050
The table reproduces HSBC Global Research’s 2050 ranking and GDP estimates, published on 15 October 2012. Amounts are billions of constant 2000 US dollars. They are long-range projections, not realized results or present-day GDP figures. HSBC Global Research’s report
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| Rank | Country or economy | Projected 2050 GDP (billions of constant 2000 US dollars) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | $25,334 |
| 2 | United States | $22,270 |
| 3 | India | $8,165 |
| 4 | Japan | $6,429 |
| 5 | Germany | $3,714 |
| 6 | United Kingdom | $3,576 |
| 7 | Brazil | $2,960 |
| 8 | Mexico | $2,810 |
| 9 | France | $2,750 |
| 10 | Canada | $2,287 |
| 11 | Italy | $2,194 |
| 12 | Turkey | $2,149 |
| 13 | South Korea | $2,056 |
| 14 | Spain | $1,954 |
| 15 | Russia | $1,878 |
HSBC’s China figure includes Hong Kong and Macao under the report’s assumption that they would be fully unified with China in 2047 and 2049, respectively. That is a modeling assumption in the 2012 forecast, not an established future event. HSBC Global Research’s report
What “richest” means in this ranking
Here, “richest” means the largest projected economy by total GDP. GDP adds up economic output within an economy; it does not show how much income or output is available per person, how evenly it is distributed, or what living standards will be. HSBC’s own separate income-per-capita ranking placed China 63rd and India 88th in 2050, despite their first- and third-place positions by total GDP. HSBC’s separate 2050 rankings
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How HSBC built its forecast
HSBC said it used a conditional-convergence model, combining assumptions about countries’ potential income per capita with demographic forecasts. Its examples of structural criteria included rule of law, education and government policy; the report’s table cites the World Bank, UN population projections and HSBC estimates. The method describes how HSBC generated its projection, but it does not establish that any country will reach a particular rank.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.“In The World in 2050 we used a conditional convergence model where an economy’s potential income per capita is determined by whether it fulfils structural criteria such as a good rule of law, decent education and government policy, etc. Coupling these results with demographic forecasts we are able to predict the size of an economy’s GDP in 2050.”
Rank #2
— HSBC Global Research, Appendix 1, 15 October 2012. HSBC report
Why other 2050 rankings differ
A forecast’s publication date, GDP measure, valuation method, base year for constant dollars, geographic coverage and assumptions can all change its results. PwC’s 2017 projections show why different league tables should not be blended with HSBC’s.
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Rank #3
| Forecast and measure | China | United States | India |
|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC, 2012: GDP, constant 2000 US dollars | 1st; $25,334 billion | 2nd; $22,270 billion | 3rd; $8,165 billion |
| PwC, 2017: GDP at market exchange rates, constant 2016 US dollars | 1st; $49,853 billion | 2nd; $34,102 billion | 3rd; $28,021 billion |
| PwC, 2017: GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) | 1st | 3rd | 2nd |
The figures use different constant-dollar base years and come from forecasts published five years apart, so the dollar amounts are not directly comparable. PwC’s 2017 report covered 32 large economies, representing around 85% of world GDP, and projected that six of the seven largest economies by PPP GDP would be emerging economies. These are PwC projections, not a universal consensus or certain outcomes. PwC’s 2017 report and summary
Quick Recap
Rank #4
How to read a long-range economy ranking
- Check what is ranked: total GDP answers which economies are largest; GDP or income per capita addresses output or income per resident.
- Check the valuation basis: PPP and market-exchange-rate estimates answer different comparison questions and can produce different orders.
- Check the dollar base year: constant 2000 dollars and constant 2016 dollars are adjusted to different price levels; neither is a forecast of the number of dollars in 2050.
- Check publication date and assumptions: a 2012 forecast is not a current measurement, and its geographic and economic assumptions matter to the result.
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